Norwegians follows the same vehicle service patterns as motorists in the rest of Europe. For the first few years of ownership, drivers tend to use franchised dealerships for maintenance, including oil changes. Then they switch to cheaper independent workshops, explained Geir Eikemo, the sales manager for the Nordic region at Univar Solutions. Univar supplies private dealerships and independent workshops with Shell lubricants, among other products.

Eikemo thinks that franchised workshops’ demand for automotive lubricants will decrease sooner than independents. The average age of a Norwegian car is 10.7 years, the European mean, according to the Finnish Information Centre of Automobile Sector. If Eikemo’s service model is right, it means that by 2025, suppliers of automotive lubricants to franchised dealers and workshops will feel the full effects of by-then 100% EV registrations.

Castrol is the passenger car motor oil supplier for Volkswagen Group in Norway. Volkswagen Group sells the most cars in Norway, through both private dealerships and Møller Group, the country’s largest vehicle importer.

However, VW said it would stop selling internal combustion engine vehicles in Norway altogether by 2024. Already, 80% of the giant German carmaker’s sales in the Scandinavian country are EVs.

“We will see an effect, that is for sure. In the future, the fight would have to be for the independent workshops,” Eikemo said. “Our volumes have been absolutely steady and to some degree increased actually.”