Shifting Sands

The growth in the vehicle parc is only one dynamic shaping change in the market. Legislation and regulations being enacted in the United States, European Union and China are influencing specifications in the Middle East as limits on emission levels continue to fall. Original equipment manufacturers are also rapidly moving to global platforms for greater efficiencies.

Some changes have already taken place – Turkey adopted Euro 5 limits in 2012 that require ultra-low sulfur diesel. Saudi Arabia announced API CH-4 as the minimum specification for diesel commercial vehicles, although its implementation is complicated by the delay of Luberefs new API Group II base oil production at Yanbu. Luberef is considered the main source of supply for the new specification.

Wyrley-Birch also anticipates powertrain development to result in more sophisticated hardware. In practice, that means higher power density and smaller engines, engine downspeeding, increasing the number of gears, introduction of gasoline particulate filters and greater use of selective catalytic reduction on light diesel vehicles. Operating conditions, already extreme in many parts of the Middle East, are expected to become more severe, necessitating a more integrated design approach for modern lubricants.

Technological and engineering advancements in hardware increase durability demands and place greater expectations on oil performance. As an example, a 50 percent increase in power density results in significantly higher temperatures and pressures, Wyrley-Birch said. Oil galleries in modern diesel engines have been reduced to 0.5 millimeters in diameter, meaning soot and sludge control as well as good rheology are critical factors. In addition, 69 percent of those surveyed in a Lubrizol study cited sand ingress as a longstanding problem in the Middle East.

Sand enters engines despite significant improvements in air and oil filtration, and although air filters can effectively remove particles larger than 100 micrometers, smaller particles find their way into the engine. The impact can be severe – premature bearing wear and ring/liner interface damage. Dust particles in the 1- to 125-m range cause the most detrimental wear.

Wyrley-Birch said simple actions can have a significant impact. Just moving from monograde engine oil to a multigrade is sufficient to reduce the amount of wear.

On a global scale, he added that it was about increasing fuel economy that lasts over the life of the oil without compromising durability. That can come from lubricant viscosity grade reduction, using base oils with lower high-temperature, high-shear properties and using surface active additive systems. Lubricants contribute directly to fuel economy and reduced emissions, according to Wyrley-Birch, and lower viscosity fluids represent the new frontier for lubricants.

Rapid Fire Spec Upgrades

More than 70 industry and OEM specifications have been introduced since 2000, Wyrley-Birch said. The torrent of new legislation is forcing the development of new formulations to address hardware changes that demand lighter viscosity oils.

He cited the recently introduced ACEA specification as an example that includes tests in hardware that mirrors real world applications. The TU5 engine test has been a fundamental cleanliness test for many years reflecting the need at the time – normally aspirated, nonturbocharged, indirect injection gasoline engines.

However, to meet current and future requirements, ACEA has incorporated the Peugeot EP6 test, a turbocharged direct-injection engine. Lubricants that would have passed the TU5 test are not adequate for EP6.

The ACEA upgrade addresses all areas of engine performance. In addition to the Peugeot EP6 test, it incorporates the Mercedes OM646 biodiesel test, which evaluates the effects of biodiesel on engine cleanliness. Other tests include the Peugeot DV6 to measure soot formation in modern diesel engines and Daimler 271 test, which uses the latest gasoline direct injection engine technology to assess sludge formation under severe conditions. The message these new tests delivers is do not put 20-year old technology in these engines.

Engine oils meeting older specifications are not formulated to withstand the higher temperatures and severe operating conditions of modern engines, particularly in the Middle East. The modern variant of the popular TGDI engine, with a direct injection system, high operating temperatures and a turbocharger which spins at about 3,000 revolutions per second requires a lubricant capable of withstanding such conditions. The latest lubricants exhibit excellent sludge and turbo deposit control than their predecessors.

The upgraded ACEA heavy-duty diesel category demands an oil with improved quality and performance and, like its light-duty counterpart, includes a biodiesel engine test (OM646LA) and a bench test that assesses biodiesel oxidation. A new elastomer compatibility test addresses REACH issues. All of these modifications have implications for the additives used, said Wyrley-Birch. He added that the API CK-4 and FA-4 categories will deliver performance way beyond CJ-4, driven by new technology, stringent testing, greater oxidation performance, higher aeration limits and increased shear stability.

It is not just the pace of the new specifications but also the spiraling costs involved in complying with the changes. For API CK-4/FA-4, Wyrley-Birch said costs for the total category could exceed an eye-popping U.S. $150 million. Half of the cost involves building a new plant, with new equipment to manufacture the new molecules we need because the specifications have changed, as have the elastomers and durability requirements. Of the remaining expenditure, about $45 million was spent on field testing and customer programs, $20 million on pre-platform development and $10 million on product development.

According to Wyrley-Birch, the current industry model makes investments an increasingly risky proposition. The return on investment continues to decline in what feels like a marginalized commodity, which we know it is not. A lot of base oil manufacturers are putting some superb oils out there, and a lot of good additive companies are doing a lot of testing and design. It is not a commodity.

Middle East Will Follow

Around the world, demands for greater efficiencies will be a key driver, and more severe operating environments will spur the use of higher quality lubricants. The trickle-down effect will shape the Middle East market. As the growing vehicle parc utilizes more complex hardware, higher specification lubricants will be needed.

In addition, currently fragmented emissions legislation across the region will tighten, in line with the changing vehicle parc and advances in fuel production. It is well-known that operating conditions in the Middle East are particularly harsh, and understanding these challenges is fundamental to providing lubricants that offer improved performance and protection, Wyrley-Birch added.

Addressing an attendees question regarding whether manufacturers are working with OEMs to improve filter quality to reduce ingress of very small sand molecules, Wyrley-Birch said a balance has to be struck. The problem is that you still have to have some oil flow. You want lubricant flow, and you want small filters in order to reduce weight. Its a real dilemma, but we do talk to filter manufacturers about these problems.

The growing use of lighter viscosity oils is altering the base oil landscape. From a heavy-duty perspective, its less a move from Group II to Group III and more a move to Group II+ and sometimes mixtures with Group III. Wyrley-Birch added that the highest heavy-duty performance specifications require volatility levels from the fluid and base oil that allow Group II to be used. From a passenger car perspective, its trickier. Group IV and very good Group III+ are going to be more widespread, but there will undoubtedly be change.

The Middle East, notably in the Gulf Cooperation Council, is making a concerted effort to upgrade the heavy-duty engine oil market, moving away from monogrades. This is exemplified by the increasing adoption of API CH-4 specifications. Although by no means a universal change, it is clear there is momentum. Yet, the perennial issue of enforcement places a question mark on how widespread the switch will be.

New Vehicle Technology

Pressure to design and use higher specification lubricants is led by regulation and a sea change in environmental awareness. The electric car and OEMs embracing hybrid vehicles conjures an additional issue of potential demand for engine oils.

They are coming, and they will have an impact, but less so in the heavy-duty transportation side. But one issue stands out; there is not enough electricity produced to satisfy the demand for electric vehicles. There is also a question about the environmental impact of electric vehicles in large numbers, he added. Nevertheless, there will be impact on engine oil chemistry in the hybrid sector.

The majority of electric hybrids are based on the slightly lower powered Atkinson cycle. And opinions differ about how different cycles affect engine oil consumption and whether they promote wear. Different cycles have been shown to cause extra soot loading and varnishing. Even so, Lubrizol see the electric car market as being quite a small portion of the overall market, according to Wyrley-Birch.