There is a sense that technology advancement and environmental concerns will impact engine oil consumption in Africa. Climate change is already a reality with dire consequences for the environment. According to a World Bank report, Turn Down the Heat: Climate Extremes, Regional Impacts, and the Case for Resilience, by 2030, droughts and heat will lead to a temperature rise that could cause major loss of savanna, which could threaten pastoral livelihoods.
While the reality of climate change is beginning to catch on in Africa, it is yet to garner wide attention among cars users, who daily emit greenhouse gases into the atmosphere due to aging cars and the use of high-viscosity engine oil. Older cars are still in high demand in sub-Saharan Africa, but analysts question how long the continent can continue to accommodate older cars while the environment takes the heat.
You have mostly used cars coming in from Europe that meet older specifications, said David Adams, senior base oil trader for Optima Energy, Geneva, Switzerland. In an interview with LubesnGreases at the Argus Africa Base Oils and Lubricants Conference in Johannesburg, South Africa, he noted that the average age of cars is still going to be 7 to 10 years, so it is going to take a long time to reap the benefits of low-viscosity fuel-economy oils.
The Global Shift
While players in sub-Saharan Africa think that prevailing engine oil habits on the continent will remain static for the foreseeable future, global trends are already pointing the way for Africa. The anticipation is that in the near future, Africa will adopt higher grade engine oils because of the surge in modern hardware on the continent, which requires higher quality engine oils for efficiency. The latest imported hardware drives the need for high-quality oils that will drive lubricant base oil and additive quality upgrades in Africa, said Martin Webster, managing director for Lubrizol-Africa.
In his presentation, Webster, explained the global trends influencing engine oil markets on the continent. Webster, who noted that the internal combustion engine will continue to dominate transportation through 2030, emphasized that most growth in the engine oil market will come from developing countries. He said that growth will be driven by rapidly evolving regional economics, growing population and a rapidly growing passenger car vehicle park.
According to Webster, total engine oil demand in Africa is approximately 900,000 tons per year for passenger car and heavy-duty diesel applications. The demand ratio, he said, is 2:1 for heavy-duty oils vs. passenger car oil. In addition, he noted, four countries in Africa account for 75 percent of engine oil demand: South Africa, Egypt, Nigeria and Algeria. Common traits of engine oils in the African market are nonadditized base oil; obsolete categories alongside current API/ACEA/JASO and OEM categories; and a mixture of monogrades and multigrades.
Review of Regional Markets
Webster noted that it is critical to have the right oil available for the vehicles in each market to enhance fuel economy, durability and exhaust aftertreatment compatibility. He went on to explain the results of a comparative survey that Lubrizol conducted of commercial fleets in Nigeria and South Africa to identify trends in both markets.
Results from a heavy-duty fleet in South Africa, comprising more than 850 vehicles, showed that about 70 percent are less that 6 years old. The fleet includes Japanese and European hardware, and 90 percent of respondents stated that they use multigrade oils. The survey also confirmed that high-quality oils were being used, but identified a lack of knowledge about engine oils among end users.
On the other hand, a survey of 14,000 end users in Nigeria showed that some modern fleets are present in in the country. It found that 90 percent of trucks on the road are less than 7 years old and are predominantly Japanese and European hardware. Also, 80 percent of respondents in Nigeria said they use multigrade oils but that quality level are mainly obsolete API specifications.
According to the findings, the same lack of knowledge about engine oils is evident among end users in Nigeria. Also, the survey concluded that the Nigerian fleet does not maintain a modern oil portfolio despite showing elements of a relatively modern fleet.
The survey noted large disparities in engine oil quality in both countries. While both markets have relatively modern hardware, the data showed that oil quality levels in South Africa appear well-suited to modern hardware. In Nigeria, however, the survey noted a mismatch between oil quality and the needs of a modern fleet.
A second Lubrizol commissioned sampling of engine oils from Nigeria and South Africa indicated the need to tighten quality control on the continent. For instance, 84 percent of the 19 samples collected in Nigeria were off-spec while 30 percent of the 23 samples collected in South Africa were off-spec. While the survey emphasized that demands for better quality engine oil will grow, it added that quality remains a key issue across Africa.
John Fitton, technical sales consultant for CPS Chemical, South Africa, told LubesnGreases in an interview, We need to be careful about products being dumped, adulteration of products and people just looking for the cheapest products. They need to start thinking about quality. In fact, people should not think about the cost of lubrication, but the impact lubrication has on their operation.
Fitton added, In South Africa, we are behind Europe, but we are catching up. We have carbon dioxide and emission drivers. These drivers are present in Nigeria, but I think the political will is lacking.
Optima Energys Adams said that South Africa is more of a European market and is different from the rest of Africa. While he noted that Nigeria and other sub-Saharan countries would benefit from improved fuel economy, the kind of hardware that requires such engine oils will not be dominant in the region for another ten years.
Hardware Trends
Lubrizols Webster said that as more drivers opt for modern vehicles, more advanced high-performance lubricants will be needed in the marketplace. He noted that power densities are increasing globally, and compatibility with aftertreatment devices requires new additive technology.
He emphasized that more torque from a downsized engine means higher loads on smaller bearings, which poses a challenge to the lubricant film strength. In other words, he noted that downsizing leads to the need for increased wear protection.
Webster emphasized that the demand for greater durability and longer oil drain intervals has increased dramatically since 1995. The hardware changes made to meet emissions and fuel economy standards, along with other factors, increase operating severity, Webster said. Therefore, durability is becoming important due to new engine designs and higher power densities, the introduction of aftertreatment systems and the move to lower viscosity oils. The environment in which the engine oil operates is becoming increasingly severe, and this is driving lubricant quality, Webster added.
David Gamble, senior tribologist for Lubrizol in Africa, said it is still a matter of balancing a number of factors, including engine design and age and fuel quality, to determine the best lubricant to use. You dont always have to go to the ultimate lubricant. Except for some of the most modern engines, we are not moving customers to API CJ. Rather, we will be staying API CI-4 because it is sufficient for the needs of our operating environment, said Gamble.
Webster identified three factors for achieving hardware efficiency: sustainability and security, environmental concerns and economic and cost concerns. He said that since 1990, CO2 emissions from fossil fuels have increased by as much as 80 percent to 36 billion metric tons per year, leading to changing climate conditions and rising sea levels. Hence, he noted that increased efficiency plays an important role in reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
However, Webster said that as emerging markets continue to grow, energy demand is set to rise by 56 percent by 2040. Therefore, improving efficiency is essential to protect energy reserves. Webster noted that if every on-highway heavy-duty diesel vehicle could reduce fuel consumption by just 2 percent, it will result in huge energy reserves and reduced operating costs.
Trends & Drivers
Webster said that commercial vehicle operators are shifting to lower viscosity and higher quality oils to meet commercial and environmental concerns about fuel economy. For instance, he noted, a 1 percent saving on fuel economy for a 250-truck fleet saves over 180,000 annually. A similar trend can be seen in the passenger car segment because the drive for efficiency has led to the introduction of lower viscosity oils.
Fuel economy is vitally important to passenger car manufacturers, said Webster, because they face heavy fines for producing excessive CO2 emissions. These fines total in excess of 10 billion based on 2015 data, he said.
Webster explained that additives are a key factor in producing fuel economy lubricants. Future engine and lubricant technologies give rise to more boundary lubrication, he explained. Hence, understanding how additives affect surface chemistry is critical to future lubricant development.
According to Webster, extensive testing proves that fuel economy improvements can be demonstrated through the use of appropriate additives. He reviewed a field test that evaluated several oils with the same viscometric properties in a European heavy-duty diesel engine. The results showed that additive chemistry improved fuel economy by as much as 1 percent.
Webster concluded, Base oils, performance polymers and advanced additive systems are enhancing the performance of lubricants around the world, and Africa cannot be excluded. He noted that the path to more efficient lubricants is tough, but emphasized that it is an important challenge that the African market must embrace because emissions legislation is sure to be tightened globally, which will definitely impact Africa.