There must be liaison between base oil suppliers and additive manufacturers because we dont have the capacity to do the reformulation … necessary for Group II base oils, said Mwangi. For instance, she noted that consumers in East Africa are price sensitive, which is a determining factor for the shift to Group II. If there is any price differential, it would be very hard to market these products to customers who dont understand anything about quality.

Linus Ilozue, managing director of A-Z Petroleum concurred that for Group II to be accepted in the African lubricant market, there have to be economic and quality justifications. At the moment, I dont see any justification for Group II. A lot of people are not convinced that Group II will give them better performance than Group I, he said, adding that most blenders in Nigeria only import Group I because that is what sells the fastest in the Nigerian market.

David Adams, senior base oil trader for Optima Energy Switzerland agreed. Nigeria is a very price sensitive market. The last drop of Group I coming out of refineries will go to Nigeria.

Emmanuel Ekpenyong, head of lubricants for Honeywell Nigeria, said, It is going to take a very long time before there will be a total shift from Group I to Group II. And Adams added that while Ergon and Nynas have been predicting the extinction of Group I, Group I base oil is here to stay for the foreseeable future.

For the long term, however, panel members agreed that educating consumers about lubricant quality is critical to the transition from Group I to Group II base oils. Adams related that educating the consumer has always been key in this market because it is often very difficult to blame equipment failure on low-quality lubricant; rather, consumers prefer to blame it on mechanical faults.

While Mwangi agreed that educating consumers will speed up the transition, she argued that the overreliance on auto technicians, who are not knowledgeable about lubricants, for recommendations poses a greater challenge to consumer education. However, she added that Group I will remain dominant on the continent as long as it is remains on the market. Adams agreed that as long as there is bright stock, there will always be Group I on the market.