Worldwide, as ICE technology evolves to incorporate alternative fuels and meet stricter emissions standards, the lubricants industry must adapt with precision and foresight. The future of ICE is not static. It is dynamic, diverse and deeply regional.

ICE Fleet Expanding in Asia

Several factors are driving the rise in ICE adoption in Asia. Rapid urbanization, population growth and expanding infrastructure are driving increased demand for commercial transportation. Heavy-duty trucks and buses powered only by ICE are in high demand as a wider variety of fuel types, including natural gas, are offered. According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, natural gas-powered heavy-duty trucks grew from 5% of total sales in 2018 to approximately 20% in 2024, a fourfold increase.

ICE platforms still dominate the market for passenger cars, motorcycles and other light-duty vehicles. In Asia markets other than India, ICE vehicles are expected to lead the light-duty vehicle fleet market through 2050. The portion of the motorcycle market powered only by ICEs is projected to remain stable through 2040. These trends highlight the enduring relevance of ICE technology in Asia’s mobility landscape.

ICE-only vehicles still have long runways in other regions, too. The United States is the world’s second-largest auto market with sales of approximately 16 million units in 2024. Electric vehicles constitute just 7.5% of all new vehicle sales and new energy vehicles just 9% through the first seven months of 2025, according to S&P Global, and the pace of their up-take has slowed with a pull-back in government subsidies.

In Latin America, EV sales tripled to 444,000 in 2024, accounting for 8% of overall sales, which reached 5.6 million units. But at least some analysts forecast the pace of EV sales growth in the region to slow to mid-double-digits in coming years. Reliable auto sales data for Africa is harder to obtain, but the World Economic Forum said EVs accounted for just 1% of total auto sales in 2024, although the number of new EVs sold doubled.

As OEMs introduce more fuel-efficient and emissions-compliant ICE platforms, performance expectations rise. Lubricants must now deliver performance across a broader range of operating conditions, fuel types and engine architecture. 

The rollout of Euro 7 automobile emission standards has begun in the Europe Union, with full implementation over the remainder of this decade. Asia is not far behind their EU counterparts, as China and India have adopted China 6/VI and Bharat Standard 6/VI, which closely mirror Euro 6 and Euro VI. Two-wheeler emission regulations are also expected to become more stringent across Asia as well as Latin America, further driving the need for advanced lubricant formulations for those vehicles. 

Across all platforms — including those vehicles powered only by ICEs and hybrid electric vehicles that have both ICEs and electric motors — it goes without saying that the need for high-performance lubricants and additives increases as emissions standards tighten. In addition, the rise of hybrid ICE platforms in Asia introduces new challenges. These engines often operate at lower temperatures and experience frequent stop-start cycles, requiring lubricants with enhanced volatility control and deposit prevention. The lubricant industry must anticipate these shifts and develop solutions that are both technically robust and regionally relevant.

A Local-for-local Approach

A localized approach to lubricant development and delivery has become essential for meeting regional needs effectively. Companies that invest in local research and development, testing and collaboration can respond quickly to regulatory changes and customer requirements. In China, for example, Lubrizol’s local testing capabilities enable lubricant developers to validate formulations under real-world conditions, boosting reliability and performance.

This strategy also supports co-development with original equipment manufacturers and oil companies, allowing for tailored solutions that align with local engine designs and fuel compositions. The ability to adapt formulations to meet specific market demands — such as hybrid vehicle requirements or alternative fuel compatibility — enhances technical resilience and end-user satisfaction.

ICE technology is advancing to improve thermal efficiency and reduce emissions. In China, a recent study found the thermal efficiency of mainstream Chinese passenger car engines has increased from 33% in 2010 to an estimated 45% in 2025. Thermal efficiency is the ratio of useful work output to energy input from the fuel, and it is reduced by factors such as friction, incomplete combustion and heat lost in exhaust. Commercial vehicle engine thermal efficiency reportedly now exceeds 50% efficiency. The operating environment is harsher, which is why lubricants must have superior durability and stability.

Alternative fuels such as compressed natural gas, biodiesel and methanol introduce new challenges. Lubricants must be formulated to handle varying combustion characteristics, corrosion risks and thermal loads. For example, methanol and ethanol fuels generate acidic byproducts and water through the combustion process. This requires lubricants to be formulated with additive chemistry that has strong corrosion resistance. Use of biodiesel as an alternative fuel can in some instances lead to sludge formation. This requires a lubricant that has strong dispersant and antioxidant performance.  

These fuel-specific demands are reshaping additive chemistry. The lubricant industry is now innovating across multiple dimensions — thermal stability, deposit control, wear protection and fuel compatibility — to ensure ICE platforms remain viable and efficient in a low-carbon future.

Innovations for Internal Combustion Engines

Beyond the adaptation for fuel types, modern ICE platforms are more sophisticated than ever. Engineers are leveraging advanced combustion strategies, lightweight materials and integrated hybrid systems to extract every possible ounce of efficiency. These innovations place new demands on lubricants, which must perform under higher operating temperatures, tighter tolerances and increasingly complex duty cycles.

Lubricants are no longer just passive protectors — they are active enablers of engine performance. Additive chemistry plays a pivotal role in reducing friction, preventing wear and maintaining cleanliness in these high-performance environments. As ICE technology evolves, so too must the science behind the fluids that support it.

Enabling future innovation requires a deep understanding of tribology, fluid dynamics and material science alongside a commitment to continuous improvement.

North American OEMs are entering a transformative phase, driven by a couple of new specifications that will redefine performance standards for passenger car motor oils.

• ILSAC GF-8: This upcoming specification will address the unique needs of hybrid engines, which operate under different thermal and mechanical conditions than traditional ICEs. GF-8 will emphasize fuel economy, wear protection and compatibility with hybrid-specific hardware.
• Next-Generation dexos1: General Motors’ next iteration of dexos1 will raise the bar for oxidation stability, low-speed pre-ignition protection, and turbocharger cleanliness. These enhancements reflect the realities of modern engine design and consumer expectations for durability and efficiency.

Together, these specifications signal a shift toward more tailored lubricant solutions — ones that reflect the diversity of powertrain architectures and regional regulatory pressures. Lubricant marketers must be prepared to pivot quickly, aligning their portfolios with these evolving standards while maintaining performance and cost-effectiveness.

For lubricant marketers and formulators worldwide, agility is paramount. The ability to rapidly adapt portfolios to meet evolving specifications and OEM requirements will be a key differentiator in the years ahead. This demands close collaboration with additive suppliers who are investing in next-generation chemistry — technologies that deliver performance without compromise.

It’s worth repeating: Internal combustion engines will remain a cornerstone of mobility in every part of the world for the foreseeable future. And as the technology evolves and regional demands shift, the lubricants industry must respond with innovation, collaboration, and localized expertise.

Supporting ICE technology in a changing landscape requires:

• Advanced additive science tailored to fuel types and engine designs.
• Compliance with evolving regional standards and specifications.
• Localized development and testing to ensure reliability.
• Strategic partnerships with OEMs and service providers.

The evolution of ICE technology is far from over. As the global lubricant marketplace adapts to new specifications, hybridization and regional nuances, collaboration will be essential. Success will depend on the ability of stakeholders across the value chain to share insights, align strategies, and invest in technologies that meet changing needs.

As the mobility landscape diversifies, the lubricant industry must remain agile, informed, and forward-looking. Supporting ICE technology in this changing future is not just a technical challenge. It’s a strategic imperative.  

KEITH CORKWELL is President of Lubrizol Additives.