Dramatic shifts in consumer preference, original equipment manufacturer hardware, fuel availability, and more are on the horizon for the North and South American vehicle markets. For the lubricants industry, forging meaningful partnerships across the value chain and leveraging optimized new technology will be necessary for ongoing growth and success.
Modern transportation as we know it is undergoing revolutionary change across the globe. As the world seeks to improve sustainability and cut carbon emissions, regulatory bodies are acting, and vehicles as we know them are changing.
Against this backdrop, it is worth examining the specific circumstances impacting lubricant markets throughout North and South America. Though global forces are prompting change, there are regional considerations that must be accounted for by lubricants stakeholders who are seeking to seize continued success wherever they operate.
For example, new lubricant performance categories—including ILSAC GF-7, API PC-12, and a broad range of OEM specifications—require enhanced fuel economy as well as improved performance across all criteria for both passenger car and heavy-duty applications. These specifications—developed in response to OEM demand for assistance in hitting lofty new fuel efficiency targets established by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)—will impact vehicles sold throughout both North and South America. Meanwhile, in South America, especially in its most populous country, Brazil, decarbonization is key. Here, heavy hybridization will be the trend of the future, while biofuels will proliferate in pumps throughout the continent—each of which have specific demands of lubricant performance.
For our industry to deliver, several things must happen. We must continue to advocate for the role of the lubricant in modern drivetrains, focusing on its ability to deliver substantive performance gains in every application. We must continue to apply the right technologies in order to achieve those gains. And we must work together to do it all.
In this article, we will explore the major trends shaping mobility in the Americas in 2024 and beyond, how those trends will impact required lubricant performance, and how collaborative partnership and the right additive technology will continue to push mobility forward in the years and decades to come.
Intersecting Trends Will Contribute to Complexity
A quick evaluation of the forecasted vehicle parc in the Americas over the next decade can provide a good overview of the complexity that awaits the lubricants space—and why widespread application of higher-performing products will be an absolute necessity for contemporary vehicles to meet their full potential.
Throughout Latin America, projected production of vehicle types will shift dramatically over the course of the next decade. North America will continue to see a proliferation of both battery electric and hybrid vehicles, whereas South America will see greater production of hybrid vehicles. S&P Global Mobility predicts that by 2035 mild- and full-hybrid vehicles will represent many vehicles produced in Argentina, Brazil and Columbia. The uptick in hybrid production in Latin America follows the larger global trend away from ICE-only vehicles.
What are the implications for the lubricant? While modern internal combustion engine (ICE)-only vehicles have their own unique set of engine oil requirements, the needs of hybrid engines are partially tied to lower overall operating temperatures. For example, recent hybrid engine field trials conducted by Lubrizol showed that hybrid engines had significantly higher fuel dilution compared to internal combustion engines. The trial also showed a tendency for water ingress and viscosity instability. Taken together, these issues can impact fuel efficiency and engine life through sludge and deposit formation, along with overall oil degradation. This necessitates unique performance characteristics for lubricants intended for hybrid applications.
Intersecting with the widespread hybridization in Latin America is the rapid proliferation of alternative fuels throughout the marketplace. Especially in Brazil, fuels with elevated ethanol content (ranging from gasoline E-27 to Ethanol E-100, commonly referred to as flexfuel) are commonplace in the passenger car space, while biodiesel and renewable diesels are quickly gaining ground. This is largely due to Brazil’s significant production capabilities for biofuels, making them an ideal and attainable method for decarbonization. But alternative fuels are not limited to Latin America. Renewable diesel fuels are also seeing heavy investment in North America.
Figure 1. U.S. Average Age by Vehicle Type: Combined average age rises to new record of 12.6 years
Elsewhere, people are consistently holding onto their vehicles for longer periods of time. The average age of passenger vehicles the United States, for example, has risen from 11.1 years in 2012 to 12.6 as of January 1, 2024. The trend here is that end users are seeking to gain greater value from their investments over the long term. But the only way this will happen is when high-performance lubricants become suited to the needs of these vehicles.
Finally, layered on top of these major trends is a continuously evolving specification landscape. New major specifications coming from North America will raise the bar for baseline lubricant performance across the board. The aforementioned ILSAC GF-7 will require certified lubricants to contribute to significant new fuel economy gains in new-model passenger car engine applications. Simultaneously, in the heavy-duty space, the new proposed category (PC-12) will similarly necessitate higher engine oil performance across the board in diesel applications everywhere.
These specifications will impact all of the Americas, requiring a higher baseline of performance industrywide. And the road does not end here. GF-7, for example, will issue first licenses on March 31, 2025, as the result of an escalated timeline to meet impending government-mandated fuel economy increases. While ILSAC GF-7 is a significant upgrade, an even more robust GF-8 is being discussed and will begin development in just a few years.
It all points to the escalating need for higher-performance, higher-value lubricants throughout the Americas. And it’s up to all of us to deliver.
Looking Forward and Communicating the Value of High-Performance Lubricants
Taken cumulatively, our industry’s ability to successfully navigate the trends outlined above while driving greater value for all stakeholders will, in my view, depend on two things.
First, the lubricants industry must work in step with regulators, specification bodies, OEMs and more to drive real value in today’s and tomorrow’s high-performance engine oil formulations. Enhanced fuel efficiency, the ability to help reduce NOx and CO2 by enabling aftertreatment devices, and other performance characteristics are becoming simple table stakes—and our industry must advocate for and properly communicate the value of true, top-tier lubricant solutions.
Here it is important to note that while many global regions are embracing higher-quality lubricants—and the fuel efficiency and longer engine life they enable—Latin America has been slower to adapt. For example, many passenger car engine oils in the market meet only the API SM, API SL or even older specifications. This means that, as hybrids gain traction in the Latin American market, consumers may find that few engine oils on the market meet their needs. Most engine oils will not be able to protect their investment and give them the performance they deserve, especially over increasingly longer-term ownership periods.
This is why our industry’s advocacy of higher-performing lubricants is so important—not just in Latin America, but in every region around the globe. The truth is that increasingly modern and efficient engine technology—be it hybrid or other ICE technology—depends on the right engine oil formulation to meet its full potential. Crucially, this message must be clear at every level of the value chain. For example, when it comes to major upgrades, required performance increases must be concrete in the value that they will deliver to oil marketers and end-user consumers who purchase their products.
This must happen at the specification development level by ensuring performance criteria upgrades that are both meaningful and achievable for the parties responsible for meeting them; oil marketers must see the value these upgrades will create, incentivizing their ability to achieve them. And it must happen at the end-user level. Consumers everywhere must see a real reason to choose a higher-tier product when lower-tier products are available at a corresponding lower price point, especially when vehicles are beyond their warranty period, which typically mandates the use of OEM-approved fluids.
Second, ongoing collaboration and partnership will be essential to not just communicating the value of higher-performing lubricants, but in achieving next-level performance that tomorrow’s hardware requires and truly pushing our industry forward. As the car parc throughout the Americas continues to evolve, the challenges ahead of us are substantial. Today’s engines are the pinnacle of modern engineering in mobility—and tomorrow’s engines will inherently surpass them.
Working together, additive technology companies and oil marketers can and will deliver high-value products to the marketplace—and it is incumbent upon the additive technology providers to identify the most optimal path forward in doing so. At Lubrizol, we believe not just that top-tier products should provide meaningful value, but that oil marketers’ ability to deliver them should be as straightforward as possible. This means anticipation of OEM wants and needs in the coming years. It means optimized technology packages for finished products. It means broad base oil coverage, especially as global supply chains continue to remain uncertain. It means delivering scientific components that aren’t at risk for regulatory scrutiny in the near future. And it means delivering the performance you expect, with all of the potential costs, risks and benefits posed by a broad swatch of industry influences fully considered.
Indeed, the ongoing success of the lubricants industry will depend on strong partnerships throughout the value chain to meet the changing needs of transportation applications throughout the Americas. At Lubrizol, we believe in a bright future ahead—and it will take our collective effort to get there.
Keith Corkwell is vice president of the Americas business for Lubrizol Additives, where he has spent the past 32 years in various technological and leadership positions. Prior to joining Lubrizol, Corkwell worked for leading oil and gas companies, including BP and Texaco, in research and technical positions.