By the time this edition goes to print, the world will finally know whether the controversial, historic meeting between United States President Donald Trump and North Koreas premier Kim Jong-un took place in Singapore.
The arrangements have faced all kinds of challenges-from the two leaders changing their minds about the meeting, to security concerns and the worlds intense skepticism-and those involved in the negotiations have had no choice but to push on.
Similarly, but on a more modest scale, the base oil market entered the summer riddled with a number of uncertainties.
Will crude oil prices go up or down? Will lubricant demand remain healthy? Will the hurricane season be as destructive as last year?
Crude oil values have shown sharp swings over the last few weeks, reaching three-year highs in May and plummeting to surprising lows in early June, shedding several dollars from one session to the next.
Analysts and traders attention was focused on OPEC and other non-members possible decision to lift the current crude production curtailments, which have been in place since 2017 and were expected to be reevaluated during a meeting in Vienna on June 22.
During the month of May, a vast majority of paraffinic and naphthenic base oil producers were able to implement increases between 10 and 21 cents per gallon to bolster margins, which had been squeezed by crude oils steep upward trek.
While participants did not expect base oil values to react overnight to the sudden plunge in crude oil numbers, participants prepared for possible adjustments as demand, and supply factors were also starting to soften.
In early June, it looked like postings would hold for a while, but some spot indications started to fray on growing supplies and lackluster demand. These price revisions seemed to affect some of the heavy-viscosity base oils in particular.
Historical values and financial projections can help participants plan for price trends over the last semester of the year, but there are a good number of elements that are unpredictable, and these are often the ones that end up having the most impact on critical elements such as price, supply, demand and profits.