As worldwide air traffic continues to climb, the boom in commercial jet sales shows no sign of leveling off. Demand for new aircraft is pumping up the backlogs of major manufacturers, with Boeing taking orders for 5,758 units last year and Airbus booking 6,831. Over the next two decades, Airbus expects the worldwide commercial fleet will double to 38,500 in-service aircraft, and Boeings predictions soar even higher. It anticipates 43,600 commercial aircraft in the skies by 2034.
To get a handle on what this means for lubricants, LubesnGreases quizzed Nancy Carlson, vice president of the aviation and marine global business unit for ExxonMobil Fuels, Lubricants and Specialties Marketing Co., about the outlook for air travel, the high-tech world of jet engine oils, and the markets expectations for the long haul.
LubesnGreases: Please give our readers some idea of the size/scale of the global aviation lubricants business.
Nancy Carlson: There are more than 20,000 aircraft in circulation around the world today, and our Mobil Jet family of turbine oils protects more than half of these across a wide range of commercial, general and military applications.
Moreover, we expect this global fleet of planes to double and modernize over the next 20 years. Our Outlook for Energy shows that, by 2040, demand for aviation fuels and lubricants is expected to increase by about 55 percent, with most of that coming from China, India and other emerging markets. In fact, Asia-Pacific will see the biggest rise, accounting for almost 40 percent of all aviation demand around the world.
LnG: As new jets go into service, wont older ones that consume more oil be retired and temper demand growth? What other factors are you looking at in your growth projections for this market?
NC: It is true that the aviation industry has become incredibly more efficient due to advanced engine technology, with larger and more powerful engines, weight reduction and better air traffic management. In fact, the airline industry expects the global fleet of planes to turn over by 2040, with larger, more efficient airplanes replacing smaller regional jets.
However, growing prosperity and the ability to trade globally will result in more people and goods being flown around the world. This means that over the long term, demand for aviation fuels and lubricants will grow – even with the expected improvements to efficiency.
This also means that growth in aviation services in emerging markets will broaden the geographical balance of airplane demand.
LnG: What are the biggest challenges in lubricating the new generation of jet engines, such as Pratt & Whitneys PurePower geared turbofan engines and Rolls Royce Trents XWB (extra-wide-body) series?
NC: Over the past decade, weve seen the emergence of more advanced, hotter running engines, and you need an oil to excel in these conditions in order to prevent coking or oil degradation, which leaves behind solid residues on the engine.
After a decade of research, development and testing, we launched Mobil Jet Oil 387, a high performance capability oil. This oil provides a number of potential benefits and advantages for manufacturers, including outstanding deposit control, excellent low-temperature fluidity and exceptional long-duration elastomer compatibility. These benefits can help aircraft operators reduce engine repair and subsequent maintenance costs.
LnG. Can you give us a snapshot of ExxonMobils global aviation lubricants supply network?
NC: As a fully integrated company with a vast network of distributors, our supply chain helps us ensure worldwide availability of our products.
The hub of our network includes a new, state-of-the-art jet oil manufacturing facility in Port Allen, Louisiana, which will be the future manufacturing home of Mobil Jet oils. This new facility is dedicated to aviation jet oil manufacturing, demonstrating our continued commitment and investment in the industry.
LnG: How onerous is the process of developing a new jet engine oil and getting MIL-spec and OEM approvals? What is the anticipated lifetime of a product in the marketplace once it gains approval and goes into service?
NC: We are in a long-term industry. For example, our Mobil Jet Oil II has been a standard for more than 50 years, and it is used in more than 50 percent of aircraft in operation today. But part of why our company has sustained a leadership position for more than a century is our commitment to staying ahead of the innovation curve, releasing new products for current and future needs. Mobil Jet Oil 387 is a perfect example. Our new jet oil underwent more than 10 years of development and rigorous testing. It is a long, challenging and costly procedure to secure approval of jet oils meeting military and SAE AS5780 specifications.
LnG: Is it possible to match the specifications for all jet engines with a single oil? If oil types are proliferating, doesnt that make it more difficult to supply them all, as well as increase the chance for misapplication?
NC: The aviation industry is a dynamic business, and the demands placed on engines are ever increasing. We always seek innovative ways to engineer the best lubricants to meet our customers needs, and thats why partnership is so important to us. We leverage our relationships with OEMs to make sure that they have the lubricants they need so they can perform at their best.
LnG: When it comes to buying an aviation lubricant, who makes the decision – the airline, the maintenance facility, the aircraft manufacturer, the engine manufacturer? As a vendor, is your relationship strictly with the engine OEM, or do you also have to engage these other stakeholders?
NC: Actually, all of these can have a role in influencing the purchase decision for an aviation lubricant. Thats why we strive to build and maintain strong relationships with each of these key stakeholders, including airline maintenance professionals, airline engineering and operations teams, and technical experts who are helping design and build the next generation of engine technologies for leading OEMs.
LnG: Besides Mobil Jet II and your new Mobil Jet 387, what is the largest volume product in your aviation portfolio? Are there other key aviation lubricants that you supply?
NC: At ExxonMobil, we have a unique, nose-to-tail product [line], providing high-quality fuels, jet oils, hydraulic fluids, greases and other aviation lubricants to help aircraft run smoothly and efficiently.
We are well known for our full suite of turbine oils, including Mobil Jet Oil 387, Mobil Jet Oil 254 and Mobil Jet II, which are available worldwide.
Mobil Jet Oil 254 is a high thermal stability oil that meets the performance requirements of gas turbine engines operating in a wide range of severe conditions, and has more than 30 years of proven performance.
In addition to the Mobil Jet oil family, our Exxon HyJet V and HyJet IV-4 plus hydraulic fluids are widely acknowledged for offering top performance compared to alternative products. We developed HyJet V to meet the evolving needs of commercial aircraft hydraulic systems. Since its introduction in 2008, HyJet V has logged more than 10 million in-service hours.
We also offer a full line of premium aviation greases, including our high performing wheel bearing grease, Mobil Aviation Grease SHC 100, and multi-purpose Mobilgrease 33.
LnG: In the aviation industry, most of the technology and equipment is developed in the U.S. and Europe, but as you mentioned, the highest growth rates in air travel are expected in the Asia-Pacific region. What is ExxonMobil doing to meet this demand?
NC: ExxonMobil has a substantial presence in the Asia-Pacific region, which makes us an ideal partner to support the growth of Asia-Pacific airlines and operators. For example, we have been operating in Singapore for more than 120 years, and most recently, we opened a new aviation hydraulic fluid testing laboratory there to meet growing demand from our customers.
LnG: Will you need to manufacture jet engine and other aviation oils in Asia-Pacific, or can you continue to supply the world from your U.S. base?
NC: We regularly evaluate our global portfolio of businesses and opportunities for growth depending upon the fit with our strategic business objectives. Our new facility at Port Allen is an incredible milestone for us and our industry, and it will help enable us to meet the emerging needs of the industry and leverage modern technologies to manufacture jet engine oils for many years to come.