To great fanfare, the 15th Annual Consumer Electronics Show recently wrapped up in Las Vegas. Overall, say the gurus of the tech world, this show was less revolutionary than usual with one exception: A crew of journalists arrived at the show in an Audi A7 which had no driver. It was autonomous – that is, driven and controlled by its own brain. Whats more, there wasnt a pilot in some remote location steering the vehicle via camera, as with the guided drones being used in combat in the Middle East.
Its not as though this is totally new. Automated guided vehicles (AGV) are currently used in many applications where precise guidance is needed, such as crowded environments. Some are camera-guided, some rely on robots that respond to embedded sensors in their path. Forked AGVs are basically forklifts that can be driven either remotely or with an operator on board. Navigation systems include inertial guided AGVs, laser guided systems, optical guidance systems and even outriggers (sort of like curb feelers).
The system Audi showed off in Las Vegas would be called a smart vehicle system which determines its own traffic control and routing. An onboard computer system controls speed and directional control while watching for other vehicles impinging on its space.
This brings to mind all sorts of conjecture as to what the future holds for this idea and how it may affect the oil industry. One image evokes the Jetsons of TV fame. My mind almost immediately conjured up a vision of the vehicles in Woody Allens classic movie Sleeper.
Audis demonstration was to gather data which they can use when – not if – they introduce a production version. Part of this test was to prove the viability of a self-driving vehicle in traffic and road conditions. The route was confined to California and Nevada, both of which have given permission to several automakers to test-drive autonomous vehicles on public roads. (I dont know about you, but the only thing that would be more startling than a vehicle without a driver passing me is one with a dog behind the wheel.)
Audi isnt alone in this arena. Although it doesnt make cars, Google has gotten into the game. It stands to reason that they would, as they build their internet empire in whatever ways they can. A self-driving vehicle project is at the center of Google X, the search-engine giants secretive skunk works lab that is conceiving contact lenses that measure blood-glucose levels, balloon-powered Internet service, giant TV screens, the Web-connected eyewear Google Glass, and more.
Executives at established auto companies and their technology suppliers are more cautious. They are pushing ahead with plans to deploy automated driving features step by step.
Were all aware of the vehicles available today that have systems to keep the vehicle centered in a marked lane, brake and steer automatically and maintain a safe distance behind another vehicle. However, no one has introduced a vehicle that can operate for an extended period of time without the drivers hands on the steering wheel. Who will be responsible for the operation of such a vehicle? For now, automakers are insisting that drivers are, but were moving into new territory here.
By around 2020, auto industry executives say they expect more highly automated vehicles will go on sale that can largely pilot themselves in most situations. The industry consensus is that it will take until 2025 to perfect the technology for fully self-driving vehicles.
Automakers also worry that self-driving vehicles will be ready before government safety rules are in place to sanction them, and before questions are resolved as to who is responsible when an automated vehicle crashes.
By next year, some vehicles could start appearing that allow hands-free driving in traffic jams or during highway cruising. General Motors says it will offer what it calls super cruise in a 2016 Cadillac sedan. German brands Mercedes-Benz and Audi have indicated that they plan to offer hands-free driving systems in roughly the same time frame.
Ford has a slightly different take on this situation. Chief Executive Officer Mark Fields said he is focused on being the first automaker to produce a mass-market autonomous vehicle, not simply on being the first vehicle maker to have one at all. Fields was a keynote speaker at the 2015 Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas, saying, We believe in the industry that there will be a fully autonomous vehicle, probably within the next five years.
Unlike our luxury competitors, when we do come out with an autonomous vehicle, we want to make sure it is accessible and affordable to everyone.
This emphasis on affordability is not new to Ford. It was the first volume manufacturer to offer safety technology like lane-departure warning systems and collision-warning systems on its mainline Ford brand. Autonomous vehicles, however, require much more expensive radar-like technology and stronger computer processors.
Fields said Ford is exploring new ideas, and announced 25 distinct experiments including mobile-phone based parking space detection services, vehicle-swapping and vehicle-sharing schemes, and mapping services to be used on unpaved roads.
We talked a lot about using innovation to drive mobility and solve some of the most pressing transportation and congestion issues around the world, he said. We are going to learn a lot about a lot of business models. Not only do we want to make a better world, we want to run a better business.
And how will lubricant companies respond to this world? My thoughts took flight as several scenarios came to mind.
If there is a computer that is so smart that it can drive the vehicle without human assistance, does that mean that car dealers will see driverless vehicles showing up to have their oil changed? I can hear it now, the computer-generated voice saying to a very surprised service manager that it wants the oil changed and to use a specific brand, viscosity grade and API category. Or maybe the auto dealership has also gone autonomous and the vehicle simply arrives at midnight at the pre-appointed service bay, gets the oil change, and returns home in time for your morning commute. (What a strange vision that presents!) Could something similar happen at quick oil change locations? It could.
Another issue: With the computer driven vehicle, driving habits would become very predictable and uniform, and so oil drain intervals could be stretched out even more. The algorithm in most current systems rely only on crankshaft revolutions and oil temperature. So much more could be added such as viscosity measurements, which can be done now on a macro scale in blending plants and oil analysis labs. Why not a micro unit that checks viscosity all the time? Volatility could be measured as well as remaining oxidation life. Some of those preformance characteristics are being measured now in high-end European models. Oil monitoring for the masses could be next!
Then theres the question of refueling. If the vehicle happens to be electric (a Tesla for instance), the onboard computer would undoubtedly guide itself to wherever the nearest charging station is located. If the vehicle is a fuel burner, finding a station would be a snap since global positioning systems, smart phones and Google Maps supply that information currently.
Everything Ive said about automobiles and light-duty trucks holds for heavy-duty trucks as well. In fact, it might be easier to convert HD fleets to autonomous control than individual vehicles. There have been demonstrations of autonomous trucks caravanning with a human-operated truck. The autonomous truck follows and does everything that the driven truck does. (Lets hope this will mean no more slowdowns in traffic because one truck is passing another up ahead at about 5 to 10 mph below the speed limit, over the course of two to three miles.)
There is a fly in the ointment, as it were. How will autonomous do with a human in the other vehicle? While the autonomous vehicle will behave in a very predictable way, the human-driven vehicle will not. The American Psychological Association tackled this issue in its monthly magazine, The Monitor. As author Kirsten Wier noted, our moods and personal circumstances affect our driving, and people do illogical and irrational things behind the wheels of their vehicles.
University of Utah psychologist David Strayer says the changes may very well be revolutionary. I suspect [vehicle automation] will be as transformational as the internet was, he says. Thats pretty big when you think about how dependent we have become on the internet – 30 years ago, it was non-existent in daily life.
Thinking in automotive terms, the addition of the onboard computer in the late 1980s revolutionized engine operations. It allowed us to escape vacuum operated carburetors and move to fuel- and emissions-efficient fuel injection. It also became the brains behind todays oil life monitoring systems as well as cruise control.
More recently some vehicles come with an autonomous parallel parking feature, and some have crash avoidance systems which take over braking when a collision is believed to be imminent, according to on-board sensors. Lane divergence alarms may go off if you stray from your lane. A backup alarm system now warns me when my minivan gets too close to another object – be it curb, vehicle or pedestrian. It has saved my rear bumper more than once.
In 2013, according to the most recent figures from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, 32,719 people were killed in vehicle crashes in the United States, and an estimated 2.3 million were injured. Human error caused more than 90 percent of those crashes, says NHTSA. Can autonomous vehicles remove that threat?
Some psychologists worry that we humans like to have a degree of risk in our driving, and so a vehicle that is programed to drive safely and with optimum fuel economy and emissions might be so boring that drivers will figure ways to push the programming. One example is speed. Most of us, if were honest with ourselves, will admit that speed limits seem to beg to be tested. Here in Arizona, many people drive as though speed-limit signs are mere suggestions. I can testify that when driving to California across the desert, with very few vehicles or trucks on the road, the speed limit seems very slow indeed. Most Zonies assert there is about a 10 mph cushion allowed by law enforcement as long as you are not reckless. (Being a bit more cautious I stay within 5 mph of the limit.)
Admittedly, there isnt a lot about lubricants per se in this column. Autonomy could have its greatest impact on how vehicles are serviced, and where, and how frequently. And wherever the auto industry goes, lubricants must follow.
So long as vehicles use a liquid or gaseous fuel, I can foresee a continuing need for engine oils and probably transmission fluids. This could be for some time to come: The U.S. Energy Information Administration predicts gas- and diesel-powered cars will still claim 95 percent of global markets in 2040.
Beyond the powertrain, grease will continue to be used in constant velocity joints and wheel bearings as well as such seemingly insignificant applications as door locks, seat sliding mechanisms and hinges.
Of course, if all-electric vehicles become the order of the day, there may be no more lubricant required except greases and transformer oil. Just doesnt seem like the good old days, does it?
Industry consultant Steve Swedberg has over 40 years experience in lubricants, most notably with Pennzoil and Chevron Oronite. He is a longtime member of the American Chemical Society and SAE International, where he was chairman of Technical Committee 1 on automotive engine oils. He can be reached at steveswedberg@cox.net.