Russian Car Sales to Rebound in 2020
New car sales are forecast to decline in 2016, with 1.3 million passenger cars and light commercial vehicles sold, or around 100,000 fewer units than last year, and 1.1 million fewer units than in 2014. According to Russian Automotive Market Research, a Moscow-based consultancy, new car sales will also stagnate in 2017, with a modest increase in 2018 and thereafter.
[The study] confirms the stagnation in motor oil consumption in 2016 and the year ahead, with a gradual increase … from 2018 onward, Tatyana Arbadzhi, head of RAMR, told RPIs Lubricants Russia conference in Moscow. As the economy rebounds, Russias production of passenger cars and light commercial vehicles could also increase.
We are expecting Russian car plants to [manufacture] around 1.2 million vehicles in 2016 and around 1.1 million in 2017. The production of these categories of vehicles could rise to 1.8 million units in 2020, Arbadzhi said. Sixty-seven percent of all new passenger car sales in 2016 are expected to be in the mass segment price category, 23 percent in the budget price category and 10 percent are in the premium price category, the consultancy found.
Russias Lada and South Koreas Kia and Hyundai are the most popular passenger car brands in Russia, according to RAMR. Lada sold 178,400 new cars from January through September 2016. In the same period, Kia sold 108,000 cars in Russia, while Hyundai sold 88,000 units.
In the light commercial vehicle category, the most popular brands are Russian – Gaz, Uaz and Lada. From January to September 2016, Gaz sold almost 28,000 new light commercial vehicles, Uaz 15,600 units and Lada 4,100 units.
In 2015, the Russian passenger car parc amounted to 41 million active vehicles, with foreign-made brands accounting for 60 percent. Of that 41 million, 97.4 percent were equipped with gasoline engines, and just 2.5 percent diesel engines, RAMR found. Only a minuscule portion of the total passenger car parc was electric or hybrid vehicles.
Last year, 65 percent of light commercial vehicle category were brands made in Russia, while foreign-made brands accounted for 35 percent, according to RAMR. In the same year, 74 percent of light commercial vehicles ran on gasoline, 25 percent on diesel and 0.4 percent on liquid petroleum gas.
During the ongoing recession, most Russians are trying to keep their old cars running, at least until 2018, RAMR predicted. New regulations for fuel economy and environmental protection [soon] will introduce the Euro 5 standard in Russia, Arbadzhi said. It will also bring longer oil drain intervals, vehicle noise reduction and use of alternative fuels, as well as alternative engine technologies, such as hybrid and electric.