Wilkes explained that viscosity is the primary driver in an oils contribution to fuel economy. In tests using the Daimler M111 fuel economy measurement with SAE 15W-40 reference oil, it is clear that viscometrics can affect levels of fuel economy improvement.

Viscometrics are defined by several factors, according to Wilkes, including high temperature-high shear viscosity, kinematic viscosity, shear stability, cold crank viscosity and viscosity index. He noted that a 0W-20, 2.8-centiPoise oil can provide a 3 to 4 percent fuel economy benefit compared to a 15W-40 oil. Wilkes said the figures indicate a clear trend toward lighter viscosity grades for improved fuel efficiency not just in the passenger car segment but in in the heavy-duty diesel market. The latter market will see a more pronounced use of 10W and 5W grades vs. conventional 15W-40 grades.

Hardware Trends & Oil Severity

The push for more efficient lubricants is visibly illustrated by changes in engine specifications in the last twenty years. Engines have been downsized; yet in some cases, power has increased by around 50 percent, Wilkes estimated. Transmissions have also become more complicated, often using dual-clutch technology.

Lubricant specifications have evolved from 10W-40 to 5W-30 and 0W-30 grades. However, improvements in lubricant technology have created more stress on additive systems. If you have less film strength, there is more pressure in higher power engines on the additive system. Wilkes said engine downsizing has led to the need for increased wear protection. More torque from a downsized engine means higher loads on smaller bearings, presenting a challenge to lubricant film strength.

It is not just lubricant film strength – oil drain intervals have increased dramatically in the last two decades for both passenger cars and long haul trucks. We are asking the oil to do more work in a much harder, tougher environment for longer, Wilkes said. Lower cost of ownership and the necessity to reduce the disposal of used oil has radically reshaped usage. Emission control system compatibility is also pushing new formulation approaches, he added.

Additives & Lubricant Formulation

The key to more efficient lubricant formulations does not lie in enhancing performance in current operating regimes, Wilkes said. Nonetheless, the surfeit of emission regulations is stretching boundaries and driving the use of aftertreatment systems, including catalysts and particulate filters. On the additive side, there are limitations on conventional chemistry use because of SAPS [sulfated ash, phosphorus, sulfur] requirements and treatment compatibility. We are having to develop nonconventional technologies to deliver performance in key areas.

Conventional higher viscosity lubricants typically operate in the full oil film regime. According to Wilkes, this avoids metal-to-metal contact, preventing wear. However, boundary performance is the new industry focus, placing more importance on the additive system, Wilkes added.

A number of developments are prompting research into boundary lubrication. One is stop-start technology, where the engine shuts off when the car stops in traffic, then restarts when the driver pushes on the gas pedal. In the process, the oil film can deplete and then has to reform, requiring the additive to perform under boundary conditions.

Thinner fluids do not provide thick fluid-film lubrication. Increased power densities, higher operating temperatures and lower viscosity oils are driving a better understanding of boundary lubrication.

Wilkes said the additive business is facing new frontiers as the regulatory environment continues to tighten and managing boundary lubrication has become an essential area of focus. However, he stressed that durability cannot be sacrificed in pursuit of emissions performance and efficiency improvement.

Original equipment manufacturers are increasingly finding themselves in unchartered territory as the use of lower viscosity lubricants widens. That can mean changes in design, changes in metallurgy or changes in surface coatings.

Evidencing the outcomes of research into boundary lubrication has necessitated advanced testing and visualization technology to provide a better understanding of how additive molecules are working. Proprietary combinations of additives create controllable multilayered composites in the boundary contact zones. They are persistent, durable and very tenacious antiwear additive layers, not just in engines but also in driveline applications, industrial gears or anywhere where there is a requirement for more efficiency.

Base Oils Key

The Middle East has attracted attention in the last few years for two reasons. There has been a lot of debate over both outdated specifications in the region and the implications of the new base oil production coming on stream. In the passenger car market, API-SF is still in common use; yet, the additive technology dates back to the 1980s. Standards in the heavy-duty market are even older – API-CD, introduced in the 1950s, is still in use.

Even so, critics have taken solace in the fact that regional base oil producers are producing higher quality base oils, which should push local markets to superior specification lubricants. UAE-based Takreer began production of API Group II and III base oils, and Saudi Arabias Luberef is due to begin production of Group II base oils.

Shells gas-to-liquids plant in Qatar has been supplying the oil giants own label business for some time, although the companys medium-term strategy remains unclear. Bahrains Bapco has also been producing Group III base oils for some years in a marketing partnership with Neste Oil.

Wilkes said that base oils are a key enabler in raising performance standards. If you look at a typical engine oil, about 20 percent is additive – viscosity modifiers, dispersants, detergents, antioxidants, antiwear and other additives – but 80 percent is base oil, and the intrinsic performance of that base oil is very important. The quality of base oil has a performance impact in several areas in the passenger car market, notably low-temperature sludge control, piston deposits and oxidative thickening. It has similar quality implications in the heavy-duty segment for sludge control, oil consumption and used oil viscometrics.

Part of the planned capacity additions in the Middle East result from new, more sophisticated hardware and growing consumer demand. Consumers are more aware that better quality base oils enable longer lubricant life and operating efficiency.

Export demand also supports the capacity expansions and upgrades, but changes in supply dynamics will present challenges for regional refiners, according to Wilkes. Evolution in industry and OEM specifications demands base oils that provide better oxidative and thermal stability, reduced volatility, enhanced low temperature properties and enhanced film strength in lighter viscosity grades. These factors are also influencing base oil demand globally, putting pressure on oil marketers to respond to changes in base oil economics.

Saudi Arabia, the Gulfs largest lubricant market, has mandated a erformance upgrade through SASO (Saudi Arabia Standards Organization) that aims to address quality issues in the lubricant market. Quality issues have blighted many Gulf lubricant markets, notably the UAE which is a major re-export hub.

ESMA (Emirates Authority for Standards and Metrology) is also on track to place lubricant blenders under its supervision, and its control protocols will be linked to licensing authorities in the UAE. It will be impossible to obtain a trade license without quality approvals from ESMA, a move analysts say will flush out inferior oils. In a regional market with a volume of around 1.2 million tons per year, the development should reduce concerns over quality.

Meanwhile, new capacity in the Middle East will provide upgrade options and higher performance levels. Wilkes contended that moving from API Group I to Group II/III will allow API CI-4 plus and CJ 4 formulations and potentially API SM/N, GF 5 and ACEA formulations. The latest efficient additive technologies can be used for Group II/III with extended claim-sets, and that presents the opportunity for technology rationalization and added value. That provides the potential to offer lighter viscosity, fuel economy grade products aligned with needs of latest OEM technologies and specs.

ME Vehicle Parc

By 2030, the number of vehicles designed for advanced emissions control and efficiency will increase to more than 80 percent to reach a fleet of 2 billion vehicles globally. Lubrizol conducted a survey a few years ago in Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Turkey and found that 87 percent of vehicles surveyed were represented by just six European OEMs.

The average age of the vehicle fleet was about 7.7 years, but newer units are entering the market and the average age of vehicles is dropping rapidly, Wilkes said. New vehicles are using engine technology from global platforms and have been designed to operate with lower viscosity, improved efficiency
and lower SAPS for improved emissions.

Around one-half of the market is suitable for advanced engine oils. Some OEM engine strategies feature raised top rings, which reduce particulate matter but cause higher temperatures, requiring lubricants with improved oxidation stability. There is also a high incidence of exhaust gas recirculation that produces more soot and higher acid levels. When emission norms begin to be rolled out in the region, there will be greater of use diesel particulate filters and that could cause compatibility issues between various components.

Several engine oil upgrades are pending, according to Wilkes, including ACEA 2016 and GF-6 along with simultaneous upgrades of OEM specifications and the new API CK-4 and FA-4 specifications. Maintaining a quality lubricant portfolio is becoming increasingly complex for the overall industry.

ME Bright Spot

The Middle East may lag on specifications, but the market outlook is positive, said Wilkes, and global quality trends are rubbing off on regional markets. Expectations that the market will gravitate to higher quality engine oils is also driven by the increased new vehicle population. Meanwhile, hardware evolution for new lower emission and more fuel efficient vehicles is increasing the demands on oil performance and driving up quality. That presents a compelling opportunity for marketers to differentiate themselves as the region resets itself to be more aligned to global standards.