Global economic growth, market development, urbanization and middle class expansion in emerging countries will allow a significant number of airplanes to enter service in Europe, the Middle East and Africa through 2034, aircraft manufacturers Airbus and Boeing predict. As airline travel surges, average passenger aircraft size will increase to allow more load capacity, and airports will have to expand to accommodate greater numbers of takeoffs, landings and people.

The airplane order books at both companies support this view. By year-end 2015, Airbus had 6,831 global orders in its backlog. That included 1,192 jets for Europe, 413 for the Middle East and 47 for Africa.

Similarly, Boeings order backlog on Dec. 31 was 5,758, with 1,134 of those destined for Europe, 566 for the Middle East and 71 for Africa.

Looking 20 years down the runway, Airbus predicts 38,500 commercial aircraft will be in service worldwide by 2034, double the number in the global fleet today. In its Global Market Forecast – Flying by Numbers 2015-2034 report, it says only 5,900 of these will be older aircraft still in service. That means the world will need to buy 32,600 new commercial planes in the next two decades at a cost of U.S. $4.7 trillion (4.21 trillion euros): 19,500 units for growth and 13,100 for replacement.

Even more optimistic, Boeing forecast in its Current Market Outlook 2015-2034 that nearly 43,600 commercial aircraft will be in service at the end of that period, including 38,050 new aircraft worth an estimated $5.6 trillion.

Rising Expectations

With sales of aircraft growing, lubricant manufacturers will need to adapt to the ever-changing needs of the market. Guillaume Forestier, director of the Aeronautics and Defence division of Nyco Synthetic Lubricants in Paris, is seeing buoyant aircraft sales for Europe, the Middle East and Africa. With the increase in aircraft sales in EMEA, we expect increased demand for lubricants which further meet sustainability principles, which can take increasingly high temperatures, and maintain system performance, he said.

Globally, we predict the number of aircraft in service will increase but with extended operability, harsher operating conditions and a reduction in unit consumption, thanks to new technologies, assured Forestier.

The rate of growth for aviation lubricants will depend on the needs of airplanes making up the airline fleets, said Paul Fridman, marketing manager for Eastman Aviation Solutions, a subsidiary of Eastman Chemical of Kingsport, Tennessee, USA. Oil consumption varies by aircraft based on engine type, so there might not be a direct correlation as older aircraft – [with] higher oil consumption – are retired and newer aircraft take their place.

Stphane Cicolella, lubricants general manager in Beijing, China, for U.K.-based Shell Aviation, agreed. We must bear in mind that some of the high-performing lubricants used in the newer aircraft last much longer than the older lubricant technologies. These products create added value for the customers and help reduce maintenance challenges, he said.

The readiness of supply chains to handle greater volumes of aviation lubricants is also a factor that must be considered by lube manufacturers. Given that aviation lubricants are made to high specifications, an increase in demand has to be properly planned and delivered through proper forecasting and projections, said Cicolella.

Fridman agreed. All market indicators consistently show aircraft demand increasing significantly.
We study aviation forecasts and prepare our supply chain for upcoming changes in demand. The implications of this increase in demand can place pressure on securing guaranteed supply of raw materials used in the manufacture of aviation base stocks.

Regional Appetites

Every region has unique factors that determine how its aviation business will evolve. In Europe, air transport benefits from the wealth and locations of its countries, economic dependence on international business and tourism, as well as low cost carriers (LCCs) and models of service for every passengers budget, according to Airbus. As the most developed market, Fridman predicted that Europes future demand for lubricants will be positive, but will grow at a slower rate than up-and- coming regions.

The Middle Easts aviation industry has thrived thanks to the presence of its airlines on five continents, favorable economic development, growing tourism and strategic geographical location. Boeing noted the Middle East is a crossroads between Europe, Africa and Asia, providing one-stop service to a majority of countries in these regions.

Air traffic in the Middle East has also been on the rise. The region has responded to this by expanding airport facilities, betting on LCCs to reduce short-haul fares and providing cross-border subsidiaries for them, and bringing a steady flow of wide-body jets into service. The latter has benefited smaller airlines by allowing them to pursue longer routes that compete with those of established airlines. However, fluctuating crude oil prices are being closely monitored by companies like Eastman Aviation, as the Middle Easts economic dependence on oil reserves could determine future lubricant demand, said Fridman.

As for Africa, where the aviation industry has developed at a slower rate, both Boeing and Airbus predict a positive outlook in the coming decades. They note the continent has a strong urbanization rate, partnerships that are allowing it to integrate into the global economy and increasing numbers of young people that should lead to a larger working-age population in coming decades.

Eastman Aviation Solutions sees great potential in the African market for growth in the long term. Current regulatory climates in this market are keeping demand in check in the near term, Fridman said.

The full spectrum of aviation lubricants, such as oils for piston- and turbine-engine aircraft, greases for aircraft frames and landing gears, hydraulic fluids and oils to improve load capacity, will have to respond to specific needs in each of these regions. Fridman noted that lubricants need to perform in widely varied climate conditions, from the extreme heat of Africa and the Middle East to the bitter cold of the Baltic States in Europe.

The true test of a lubricants performance in these extremes is how the product performs when exposed to other variables experienced in these climates. For example, how the oil performs if debris such as sand or other contaminants enter the system in desert climates, Fridman explained. For colder climates, frigid temperatures affect engine starts and increase the overall potential for operational contaminants, such as metal particles.

The Right Mix

Lubricants also have to respond to planes of different sizes. We find many operators globally have a mix of wide-body and narrow-body aircraft. To simplify their flight-line logistics, operators typically choose an oil for the engine and other accessories within the engine cowl – starters, generators – that has all its necessary approvals for their single fleet oil, said Fridman.

The alternative would be propagation of lubricants to meet different airplane specifications, unless lubricant manufacturers can figure out how to streamline the choices. Globally, OEMs and airlines are asking for multipurpose lubricants that they will be able to use on both their old and new aircraft, with the most applications and a longer in-service time, Nycos Forestier acknowledged.

Products for the aviation industry have to meet the specifications from jet engine OEMs, many of whom have adopted the most recent version of SAE International AS5780 Aerospace Standard. The specification defines the physical, chemical and performance limits for 5 centiStoke gas turbine engine lubricants used in aerospace applications, as well as test methods, quality control requirements and procedures to manage changes in oil formulations.

Qualification to AS5780 typically represents an oil formulations first step in an OEMs aviation authority-regulated oil approval program, which includes ground engine testing and sometimes in-service evaluation, Fridman explained. The full approval process can take up to a decade, so there are very significant barriers to entry for new suppliers, given the time and resource investment required for new product approvals.

Lubricants are no longer consumables, Forestier emphasized. They are the key partners of new programs and they will support new technologies of equipment, ensuring their efficiency and durability. We see a trend for filled for life equipment now, the lubricant becoming part of a whole system from the design.

New aircraft and engine designs will ask for new and innovative
lubricants, he added. One of the challenges will also be to manage the obsolescence of raw materials generated by REACH [Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and Restriction of Chemical Substances] and provide innovative alternatives to operators to maintain operability of their fleet.