Russian automotive lubricant consumption is poised to grow by about 3 percent annually, reaching as much as 563,000 tons in 2020, a study by consultancy RPI found. Russia consumed 455,000 tons of automotive lubes in 2013, according to the Moscow-based consultancys study, Actual Consumption of Engine Oils by the Russian Vehicle Fleet and Forecast for Its Development until 2020.

Market segments covered in the study include passenger cars, light commercial vehicles, heavy-duty vehicles and buses. The passenger car lubricant market is expected to show the largest growth, with a 4.5 percent year-on-year growth rate, Nikita Medvedev, RPIs senior analyst, said in an interview. In the other segments, the demand growth rate could reach as much as 2 percent.

RPI expects the main demand growth drivers to be the expansion of Russias vehicle fleet, the countrys changing vehicle mix, as well as execution of a number of infrastructure and developmental projects. In regional terms, we found that the largest demand for automotive oils is in the Central, Volga and Siberian Federal Districts. These regions comprise around 60 percent of total automotive lubricant demand in Russia, Medvedev said.

The Far East Federal District has the highest per capita consumption, RPI said. This region consumes 5 tons of automotive lubricants per 1,000 people. In the remaining regions – Central, Northwestern, Southern, Siberian, Ural, Volga and North-Caucasian – this indicator stands at 2.5 to 3.5 tons of motor oil consumption per 1,000 people, the consultancy said in a news release.

Russias need for synthetic and semisynthetic lubricants is expected to rise, following the trend from the last few years, while its consumption of mineral lubes is poised to plunge further, according to RPI. This is related to the renewal of the countrys vehicle fleet that needs sophisticated and high-quality lubricating materials, the consultancy noted. Medvedev pointed out that in 2014, synthetic finished products held a 29 percent market share, semisynthetics held a 30 percent share, and mineral oil-based products held a 41 percent share of the total market.

This year, we added a new section to the study that assesses the market related to the different motor oil viscosity indexes and their consumption by different vehicle segments and brands, Mededev indicated. For example, we found that SAE 5W-40 and 10W-40 oils held a 56 percent share of the total passenger car motor oil market. Another example is that only two car brands – Frances Renault and Japans Nissan – accounted for a 70 percent share of Russias total consumption of 0W-30 oils.

For more information about the 100-page RPI study, available in Russian and English, or to purchase copies, visit www.rpi-research.com/publications.