Led by strong vehicle sales, Russias automotive lubricants demand is expected to grow by around 3 percent annually, reaching 768,500 metric tons by 2017. According to a study by Moscow-based RPI, Actual Engine Oil Consumption by Motor Vehicles in Russia, the passenger car lubes segment will lead this growth, with expected increases of about 4 percent per year through 2017. The study found that passenger car motor oil demand growth is influenced by changes in passenger car design, changes in sump size, increasing annual mileage driven and extended service intervals.
Russias total automotive lubricants demand in 2011 reached 631,400 tons, Maxim Matuk, RPIs head of research, said. This volume is split among passenger car lubes, which accounted for 42.4 percent of the total demand, or 265,400 tons in 2011. Commercial and heavy-duty vehicle lubricants accounted for 40.6 percent, or 258,600 tons; and lubes for light commercial vehicles and buses together accounted for 17 percent of the countrys total automotive lubes demand, 78,900 tons and 28,500 tons respectively.
RPI expects Russias total passenger car lubricant demand to reach 351,000 tons in 2017, including factory fill volumes for automobile producers. Heavy-duty lube demand will rise to 280,000 tons per year by 2017, while lubricant demand for light commercial vehicles could rise to 105,000 tons and that for buses to 32,500 tons.
As of 1 January 2012, the total Russian vehicle fleet, including passenger cars, light commercial vehicles, trucks and buses, numbered about 43.4 million units, according to RPI. Passenger cars dominated, accounting for 82 percent share of the total number of vehicles. Relatively equal shares of 8.3 percent and 8.4 percent belonged to light commercial vehicles and trucks (which include commercial and heavy-duty vehicles). Buses share made up the rest.
In the wake of growing car sales, the passenger vehicle segment is expected to grow to approximately 46.6 million units in 2017. The light commercial vehicle fleet may rise by 24.8 percent to approximately 4.5 million units, and the number of trucks is expected to grow by 9 percent, reaching 4 million units by 2017, Matuk said. As a result of growing passenger traffic and replacement of aging inventory, bus sales are expected to rise around 4 percent annually through 2017.
Geographically, the highest rates of automotive lubricant consumption in 2011 were reported in the Central, Privolzhsky and Siberian federal districts. These three districts together accounted for a 60.9 percent share of the countrys total passenger car lube demand. These three federal districts also consumed 55.8 percent of Russias commercial vehicle lubes, 57.1 percent of the countrys engine oils for trucks, and 60.8 percent of its engine oil for buses, Matuk revealed.
The highest consumption of passenger car lubes was reported in Moscow (9.6 percent of total Russian consumption), Moscow oblast (6 percent), Krasnodar krai (4.1 percent), St. Petersburg (3.8 percent) and Rostov oblast (2.9percent). In the truck segment, the highest heavy-duty motor oil consumption was in the Tyumen oblast (5.4 percent of the total), Moscow (4.7 percent), Krasnodar krai (4 percent), Moscow oblast (3.8 percent), the Republic of Tatarstan (3 percent) and Rostov oblast (3 percent).
Matuk said that Russias automotive lubricant demand growth will continue in the next several years, albeit at variable pace in the segments of the automotive engine oil market.
On average, for the countrys entire vehicle fleet, Russian engine oil consumption in 2011 totaled 14.6 kilograms per vehicle. According to the RPI forecast, during the period from 2013 through 2017, per-vehicle engine oil consumption in the country is likely to approach the figure reported by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development member states, namely, 9.1 kg per vehicle. Nonetheless, Russia will not be able to reach that number until after 2020, Matuk concluded.