I just experienced a keynote speech that left me almost speechless. Sunil Erevelles, chairman of the marketing department at the Univ. of North Carolina in the U.S., spoke at the Petroleum Packaging Councils fall meeting, and at the conclusion of his talk, delegates were scrambling to call their stockbrokers.
Erevelles message was not a happy one. Italy will default, he predicted, and by late 2012 the world will enter a major depression. It wont hit bottom until 2013-2014, and the world wont begin to return to affluence until the 2022 time frame. Oil prices will plummet, deflation will reign, there will be fire sales of U.S. and global assets.
This marketing academics evidence for a coming crisis is a confluence of demographic patterns and spending patterns. From about 2015, China will decline, he predicted. China will get old before it gets rich. On the other hand, he said, India will get very rich before it gets old.
Just as great fortunes were created in the last global depression in the 1930s, Erevelles said, the coming crisis will also offer great opportunities to nimble, debt-free companies.
While I fervently hope Erevelles proves to be a poor prognosticator, he certainly had every executive at the PPC meeting thinking seriously about what if.
So, let me remind you that we can help forward-looking companies become even stronger and healthier, whatever the future brings.
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