Global Lubricant Demand to Remain Flat
Global lubricant demand is expected to increase at a compound annual rate of less than 1 percent through 2021, according to a study from consultancy Kline & Co. The continued shift to synthetics is expected to both suppress volumetric growth and boost revenues in some countries.
In volume terms, Kline reported that the Asia-Pacific region had the most demand in 2016, followed by North America and Europe. Motor oils for passenger cars and equipment powered by two- and four-stroke engines took the lead in terms of lubricant demand by application for the first time, ahead of heavy-duty motor oil, followed by process oil.
The top 20 global finished lubricants suppliers last year accounted for about 61 percent of total lubricants supply, the study found. Shell remained in the lead for the eleventh consecutive year, followed by ExxonMobil, BP, Chevron and Total. The United States was the largest country market, followed by China, India, Russia and Japan.
More access to better base stocks is proving a factor in all types of country markets. Klines analysis shows continued expansion and availability of higher quality base stocks, from API Group II to Group III+. This makes it easier for formulators and supplies anywhere to improve their product slate. The study, released in August, is titled Global Lubricants: Market Analysis and Assessment.
Industry consultant Ray Masson echoes the findings about base oils. His Base Oil Report on page 6 concludes a three-part analysis of base oil markets and price projections. Masson says, Most players agree that all base oil types are facing weakening markets over the next few months. This may be due to a number factors, including lower demand cycles from the largest economies and increasing availabilities for almost all base oil grades and types.
You can depend on LubesnGreases EMEA to keep you abreast of developments in the base oil and lubricants markets. And with the conference season heating up in the next few months, more in-depth analysis of these markets is sure to emerge.
– Richard Beercheck
Dick@LubesnGreases.com