Swan Song for NPRA Lube Sales Report

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The National Petrochemical and Refiners Associations Report on 2007 U.S. Lubricating Oil and Wax Sales was published last week, making its farewell appearance without capturing sales data from some usual participants, most notably ExxonMobil. NPRA has decided to discontinue the report, citing the costs of producing it and feedback questioning its usefulness.

ExxonMobil had participated in the NPRA survey for at least three straight decades, and while the oil majors lack of participation hurts the reports bottom-line total, there still are important trends to be gleaned from the 70-page report, industry sources say. Overall, the companies responding to the survey said their sales of automotive and industrial lubricants fell 2.2 percent in 2007 versus 2006, and sales of lubricating grease fell 5.7 percent, the report shows.

The Lubes and Waxes Committee of NPRA voted Nov. 13 to discontinue the report, NPRA technical programs manager Daniel J. Strachan told Lube Report. Strachan is in charge of lubricant and wax statistics at the Washington, D.C.-based trade association. The Lubricating Oil and Wax Sales Report provides detailed data by product type on finished lubricant sales volumes in the United States.

Feedback indicated the report isnt that useful in the industry, Strachan said. We had talked to a number of our members and others, online and offline about it, for a period of time, he continued. We werent selling very many copies here at NPRA. For the money that it cost to put that report together, and the manpower, it was not a good return on investment. He declined to put a specific cost figure on the report.

The discontinuation of the annual sales report will not have an impact on NPRAs Quarterly Index of Lubricant Sales report, according to Strachan. The QUILS report will still continue as it has been, he added.

The 2007 sales reports list of participants shows ExxonMobil declined to provide data, after many decades of support for the publication. Los Angeles-based Lubricating Specialties Co., one of the largest independent blenders in the country, also chose not to take part in the survey,for the first time since 1994.

Geeta Agashe, vice president of Little Falls, N.J.-based Kline and Co.s Energy Practice, said Kline estimated that ExxonMobil ranked number two in the branded U.S. lubricants market in 2007, with 9 to 10 percent of the market. Shell holds the top spot with about 12 percent of the U.S. branded lubricants market, she said. Kline estimated the U.S. branded lubricants market total at about 2,730 million gallons in 2007.

Obviously, if someone with 9 to 10 percent of the market chooses not to participate, thats going to have a huge impact on that study, Agashe told Lube Report. If a particular company does not choose to participate – that is, the NPRA does not get 100 percent participation from all active lubricant companies in the U.S. – then their numbers are not truly reflective of the market size of the United States. But the NPRA survey results are always good in terms of figuring out the trends in the market.NPRA said the 2007 report captures about 80 percent of total U.S. sales. NPRA had said the 2006 report, which included ExxonMobil, captured approximately 95 percent of total U.S. lubricant sales.

ExxonMobils absence affects the total volumes in several product segments in the survey, Agashe added. They have a significant presence in both the automotive and industrial, as well as the grease segments, she said.

Last years edition of the report – which included ExxonMobil and several smaller companies that did not respond this time — indicated overall sales of lubricants, greases and process oils were 2,449 million gallons in 2006, and 2,474 million gallons in 2005. Without those participants, the 2007 reports bottom-line total reached just 2,022 million gallons, and 2,070 million gallons in 2006.

For 2007, the total number of respondents was 79, compared to 67 companies for the 2006 report. ExxonMobil did not reply to questions from Lube Report regarding the NPRA report.

The 2007 report includes only comparative data (that is, data for companies that provided their sales data for both 2007 and 2006). This comparative data shows a 2.3 percent decrease in overall sales of lubricants, greases and process oils compared to 2006. Sales of lubricating greases, for companies responding in both 2006 and 2007, reached 45.5 million gallons in 2007, compared to 48.3 million gallons a year earlier, a 5.7 percent decrease.

Participating companies sales of automotive lubricants declined 2 percent last year to reach 1,171 million gallons, the new reports comparative data indicates, versus 1,194 million gallons sold in 2006. Gasoline engine oils made up almost half of that volume, at 585 million gallons, and SAE 5W-30 and 10W-30 were the most popular viscosity grades.

In heavy-duty engine oils, the NPRA comparative data showed sales down 1.2 percent in 2007. Diesel engine oil sales totaled 313 million gallons, and the most popular grade, SAE 15W-40, accounted for nearly 88 percent of that.

Participants volumes of automotive lubricants sold as synthetic or partial synthetic grew 10.5 percent from 2006, the report indicates, and totaled 83.0 million gallons in 2007.

However, industrial oil sales declined 3 percent to 390 million gallons in 2007, according to NPRAs comparative data, versus 403 million gallons a year earlier.

Process oils, on a comparative basis, edged down 2.1 percent, from 425 million gallons in 2006 to 416 million gallons in 2007. Reported sales of agricultural oils saw a steep 33.3 percent decline to 14 million gallons in 2007.

Among metalworking oils, overall sales declined 1 percent in 2007. Their sole gain last year was a 9.8 percent increase for synthetic soluble oils (containing no mineral oil). The largest decline among metalworking oils was a nearly 9 percent drop for straight oils (mineral oil based, used neat without water).

NPRAs 2007 Report on U.S. Lubricating Oil and Wax Sales is available at a cost of $25 for NPRA members, $300 per copy for nonmembers. The full report summarizes the data in charts and graphs which show volumes, product types and quality levels for automotive oils, industrial lubricants and waxes. Visit www.npra.org, and download the order form from the publications link.

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