Total U.S. lubricant sales volumes in the first quarter of 2008 declined 4.2 percent compared to the same period in 2007, according to the latest sales data from the National Petrochemical and Refiners Association.
On Sept. 2, NPRA released its Quarterly Index of Lubricant Sales for the first quarter of 2008, showing that volumes slid across all but one major sector of the market – process oils – compared to the same period in 2007, with decreases ranging from 1.5 to 11.5 percent.
Effective with the first quarter report, the index now uses 2006 as the base year instead of 2002. NPRA has restated the indices for 2006 and 2007 due to changes in the reporting population.
An index value of 100 represents the average quarterly volume for 2006, which is calculated by dividing the total volume for 2006 by four. The 2008 first quarter value was 93.4 (meaning sales were 93.4 percent of the 2006 average), compared to 97.4 for the first quarter of 2007.
Grease sales volumes dropped 11.5 percent to 75.5 in the first quarter, compared to 85.3 in 2007s first quarter.
Grease sales for domestic use have been declining for many years in the United States, said Stephen Ames, of SBA Consulting in Pepper Pike, Ohio. Industrial activity is down, new vehicle sales are down, and miles driven are down, and thats going to further impact the trends that have been going on in grease, Ames told Lube Report. There are also a number of new offshore grease plants whose customers may have been purchasing from U.S. sources in the past, further adding to the decline.
The automotive segment slipped 6.9 percent to 90.7 in the first quarter, compared to 97.4 a year earlier.
Not only do you have the trend of extended oil drains, but with the higher energy prices, you also have less miles driven and fewer oil changes, Ames said. There are also fewer vehicle sales, which translates to less initial fill, and those vehicle sales being made have shifted towards those with smaller engines, often with smaller oil sumps. The 6.9 percent decrease seems to jibe with other numbers Ive heard, so it is probably a fairly accurate picture.
Industrial lubes edged down 1.5 percent to 92.8 in the first quarter, compared to 94.3 in 2007s first quarter.
The one sector showing slight growth was process oils, which rose 2 percent to 102.3 in the first quarter, compared to 75.5 in 2007s first quarter.
According to the NPRA report, the U.S. Energy Information Agency reported output of paraffinic and naphthenic base oils totaling 15.5 million barrels during the first quarter, up 8.8 percent from the same period in 2007. Wax production for the quarter totaled 1.1 million barrels, down 9.3 percent from 2007s first quarter.
NPRA emphasizes that its quarterly reports are meant to be used as a gauge of market trends, rather than a measure of total sales, because relatively few marketers participate. The association member companies that report quarterly data are refiners as well as marketers, representing more than 65 percent of the lubricants volumes reported for the associations more comprehensive annual report on lubricating oil sales.