Posted prices for paraffinic base oils in the United States have not changed for nearly six months, and some market observers say it could be several more months before they move again.
Buyers and sellers agree that the market has been quiet in recent months – normal for summer but unusual during a year that has seen a number of supply disruptions. Most agree that base oil demand has slowed. Some maintain that consumption is at typical summer levels, while others maintain that sales are off more than usual due to the stubbornly sluggish economy.
Given the current doldrums, some sources on both sides of the market say they do not expect postings to change any time soon, unless crude oil costs change drastically. Crude prices on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed at $29.63 cents per barrel yesterday, $2.02 lower than last week.
The market is in balance, one marketer said. We dont believe there is going to be any movement in prices until fall, or even toward the end of the year.
Others sounded more cautious, contending that supply of some grades appears to have loosened. A few sources said attractive discounts for Group I stocks have been available recently.
It seems that some [suppliers] have been getting more aggressive lately, another marketer said. If that happens with a large enough volume, it usually leads to price cuts.
Historic U.S. posted base oil prices and WTI and Brent crude spot prices are available for purchase in Excel format.