Individuals throughout the market had expected price hikes, due to last months run-up in crude oil costs.

Im still scratching my head, one supplier said yesterday. I guess this means that Exxon is still long on bright. But this sure isnt what I expected. Looking at whats happened on the cost side, you would think prices would be heading in the other direction.

Some sources said bright stock has been in relative surplus for at least a year, partly because of blenders reformulating to use 600 neutrals, partly because of lower demand from manufacturers of commercial rubber roofing. Bright stock was left out of two rounds of price hikes last summer. Bright stock postings finally rose 3 cents per gallon in October but more than gave that back this week.

Suppliers said they see some hope of relief in Shells plan to close its Deer Park, Texas, refinery at the end of March. The facility produces naphthenic and paraffinic base oils, including bright stock.

Sources expressed a bit less confidence this week about the likelihood of a price hike in the near future for other cuts of base oil. Crude prices continue to hover at two-year highs, up more than $5 per barrel since early December. The price on the New York Mercantile Exchange climbed 11 cents yesterday to close at $32.37 per barrel.

But suppliers usually defer to market leader ExxonMobil in pricing matters. This weeks cut in bright stock prices left them second-guessing their ability to predict the companys actions.

I still think the market is ripe for an increase, one marketer said. But thats what I thought last week, too.

Historic U.S. posted base oil prices and WTI and Brent crude spot prices are available for purchase in Excel format.