A number of force majeure declarations remain in force among U.S. producers, but it would seem that most of the cargoes to the Far East that had been trying to move in the days before Harvey have started to emerge once again. Several large cargoes of methanol have been booked, either from Jose, Venezuela, or from U.S. Gulf, with typical rates in the low $50s per metric ton basis for 15,000 ton to 17,000 ton cargoes. Further requirements include large lots of ethanol, ethylene dichloride, ethyl benzene and styrene. Rates are still in the low $50s/t for 5,000 ton to 10,000 ton cargoes, although finding prompt space has become more challenging.

The transatlantic route is still in a state of flux. Initial attempts to ship pyrolysis gasoline were shelved, then the same happened for all the styrene enquiries that had replaced the pyrolysis gasoline, leaving a number of requirements for glycols, biodiesel, crude tall oil, ethanol, neodene and some large palm oil cargoes from the Caribbean. Rates are around $50-55/t, but it may be possible to challenge those numbers since there is quite a bit of prompt space following all the recent cancellations. Base oils are supposed to be scarce in the U.S. Gulf, which is why it is surprising to see traders looking to ship 15,000 tons from the U.S. Gulf into West Africa.

Activity has seen a slight uptick to the Caribbean this week as many of the requirements that had been pending prior to Harvey have re-appeared in the market, putting pressure on September space. A couple of tenders have been noted this week, one for caustic into Borburata, Venezuela, and another for ethanol into Jamaica. A bunch of enquiries have been noted into Mexico too, including methanol, acrylonitrile, glycols, paraxylene, styrene and sulphuric acid. A small parcel of base oils is looking for space from the U.S. Gulf into Rio Haina, Dominican Republic.

A few fresh ethanol enquiries into Brazil have popped up this week. It has also been noted that caustic is looking for space into Paranagua, Brazil, and a further 10,000 tons of caustic was booked into Brazil. Seven thousand five hundred tons of ethylene dichloride may ship to Maceio, Brazil, and a cargo of acetic acid quoted as the contractual vessel was out of position.

Europe

Following the quiet spell last week there was a slight improvement in the amount of new business quoted along the North Sea and Baltic route, which resulted in most ships being able to fix ahead by five days or more. However, the uptick is beginning to run out of steam, and there is the risk that more ships will become idle again. A couple of base oil cargoes were booked out of the Baltic to Antwerp-Rotterdam-Amsterdam and the U.K., but the bulk of the material is being sent to West Africa.

More spot business has been conducted into the Mediterranean over the past week, and the tonnage lists are not looking as top-heavy as before. 5,000 tons of easy chemicals from Antwerp-Rotterdam-Amsterdam to Marmara, Turkey, were booked in the low 40s/t, which is a slight increase on earlier fixtures. A few more FAME possibilities have been noted, and there is some interest in shipping base oils from the Baltic into Morocco.

The northbound route has been rather dull again. After the last lot of aromatics enquiries were covered, there has been very little else, with just a small parcel of pyrolysis gasoline fixed from Italy. Some ethanol, caustic, FAME and glycerine requirements have been seen, but mostly from Spain and Portugal. Ships that are coming up from the East and Central Mediterranean have found very little to offer on, and in some cases have had to sit and wait, or simply ballast.

Many vessels trading purely inter-Mediterranean have benefitted from a slight increase in cargo volumes this week, keeping them from being open spot. In a few exceptional cases, owners are able to claim they only have October space. FAME has certainly provided the majority of prompt requirements, but caustic has also provided quite a few opportunities, with ships booked out of Temryuk, Russia, Alexandria, Egypt, Lavera, France, and Barcelona. Some spot base oil activity has been noted with cargoes fixed from Spain, Italy, Greece and the Black Sea to destinations in Turkey, Israel and Morocco. A number of base oil shipments were cancelled out of Livorno, Italy, due to heavy flooding, but the shipments now seem to have been rescheduled.

It has finally been a better period westbound, with more cargoes being moved as a consequence of Harvey. However, rates are unchanged due to a perceived over supply of tonnage, though it remains to be seen how many ships actually go on berth after all. Paraxylene is one of the principal grades, but there has also been talk of pyrolysis gasoline, benzene, mixed xylenes, orthoxylene, toluene and acetone, sulphuric acid, biodiesel, drilling fluid and wax. Questions have also been asked about methyl tertiarybutyl ether due to some U.S. plants remaining off-line.

So far, base oils have not featured. A cargo of caustic was fixed from Antwerp-Rotterdam-Amsterdam to the U.S. Atlantic Coast, with more caustic noted into Canada. Greater demand for products such as urea ammonia nitrate, clean petroleum and gasoline components has also been noted into Canada, which typically starts to import these grades before winter closes the Lakes.

Demand along the Far East route has picked up a little, with a couple of large base oil shipments fixed from the UK and the Black Sea to Singapore. Some traders have been talking of 5,000 tons to 10,000 tons of benzene, toulene, and xylene cargoes to Asia, but most enquiries are small, specialized grades. Rates have slipped a little, with 4,000 tons of easy chemicals from Antwerp-Rotterdam-Amsterdam to Korea going for low $80s/t.

Traders still seem interested in placing some benzene into the Middle East Gulf, but otherwise demand into India and the Middle East Gulf remains like last week – small parcels of acetone, oxo-alcohols, acrylonitrile and glycol-ethers.

Asia

Typhoons have been bashing parts of Asia to the extent that many ships have accumulated at least 2 to 3 days of delay, which has caused the space situation to look tighter. September space is already very scarce on many domestic routes, and owners will attempt to take advantage of the situation and raise their freight ideas. However, the first half of October space is still readily available at this stage, and with Golden Week in China taking place in the first week of October, it is unlikely that there will be that much more new business over the next couple of days which might thwart any freight increase.

Looking a little further ahead, the 19^th China Congress will take place October 11 through 18, and during this period there will be many restrictions on navigation of the Yangtze River, China, including ports such as Jiangyin, China, Nantong, China, and Zhangjiagang, China. Some traders and owners have already decided to avoid sending cargoes and ships there during those days, which will likely impact negatively on the freight market.

Over the past week there have been multiple cargoes of paraxylene fixed on the transpacific route. In some cases, owners claim to have achieved rates of $60/t for 20,000 ton cargoes. Others, however, have agreed mid $40s/t for 10,000 ton cargoes. The number of new paraxylene requirements is starting to slow down, but there has been interest in moving benzene to the U.S. in October. Other commodities have also been in evidence, including base oils, acetone, isopropanol, solvents and acetic acid. 2,000 tons of isopropanol from China to the east coast of Mexico was booked in the low $150s/t, to give an idea of rates.

Space is still available to Europe, but owners are being highly selective on the cargoes on which they offer. Some base oils have been quoted to Europe, and there have also been products such as FAME, vinyl acetate monomer, acetone and acids. Caustic remains a distinct possibility, given recent price hikes of U.S. material.

Demand remains strong in the regional markets, with cargoes of MTBE, pyrolysis gasoline, base oils, phenol, glycol, linear alkyl benzene, caustic, ethylene dichloride, canola, methanol and benzene noted. Iranian business has also been active, keeping a lot of ships away from the other trades. Port congestion is becoming a serious problem again in Al Jubail, Saudi Arabia, and Kandla, India, tightening the tonnage situation in the area.

Eastbound is stable. Some base oils have been seen looking to move Al Ruwais, U.A.E., to China, and there have been other large slugs of methanol, aromatics and styrene. Westbound space is a bit tighter. Relets of styrene and glycol have been spotted into the Mediterranean. Several cargoes of paraxylene have been worked to the Americas, with one shipment of 30,000 tons reportedly fixed at $57/t. 16,000 tons of caustic from Iran to Adriatic has seen rates in the mid $50s/t.

Adrian Brown is a senior market analyst for chemicals and base oils with SSY Shipbrokers, London, can be reached atfix@ssychems.comor +44 12 0750 7507. Information about SSY can be found atwww.ssyonline.com. In the Houston office,Steve Rosenthalof SSY’s Chemical Tanker Department can be reached directly at +1 (713) 652-2700 and Jordi Maymi in Singapore can be reached at +65 6854-7127.