SSY Base Oil Shipping Report

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The U.S. is moving at a faster pace with better opportunities on all routes. European freight levels are not under undue stress, although owners might wish for a greater choice of cargoes. Asia, however, remains a difficult market for owners and rates have a soft feel about them.

U.S. Gulf

Styrene is being seen more frequently along the U.S. Gulf-to-Far East route. Ethanol is also generating some interest, with requirements both into the Philippines and Korea. Ethylene dichloride in the amount of 10,000 tons was worked and a number of methanol enquiries have come to light. Base oils are not so common any more, at least with traders, though producers still have shipped material out to affiliates. Rates are generally pretty stable.

There is a reasonable appetite for vessel space on the transatlantic eastbound route. Some of it is not hugely firm, however, and it may take longer for owners to fill up their ships because of cargoes changing dates, or even being deferred altogether. Styrene is starting to appear, and there are requirements for cumene, ethanol, mixed xylenes, metaxylene, ethylene dichloride, glycols, phenol, acetone and vegetable oil. Base oil interest is slight, however.

There is quite a lot of chemicals activity in the Caribbean, as well as vegetable oil, molasses and tallow, but base oil demand seems to be flat. Nothing further seems to have occurred on the base oil tender into Venezuela, and there is not much news about the other requirements into Colombia, the Dominican Republic and Mexico.

Contractual volumes are strong for April along the route to the east coast of South America, with some owners reporting that their ships are maxed out on contractual business alone. Ethanol continues to make news on this run, with methanol proving to be the other main commodity moving on a spot basis. Base oil interest seems subdued for now.

There are still base oils being fixed into India from the U.S. Gulf, with the latest requirement of 7,000 tons heard to be fixed. Most of the scheduled carriers still have space this month, and, in addition, an outsider is considering going in that direction in early May, which should mean rates will stay competitive.

Europe

There is not a great deal of prompt open space along the North Sea and Baltic routes, but all the same, owners are hungry for all they can get and so rates have a softness about them that belies the position lists. Base oils have become a bit more active again, with several cargoes fixed out of the Baltic. There have been a few more aromatics parcels, as well as chlorinated cargoes, acids, ETBE and so, and it is not all just biodiesel or ethanol this week. Low water levels on the Rhine are starting to cause some concern in what is turning out to be a very dry season.

It has been reasonably active again into the Mediterranean, but owners still lack confidence that they will fill their ships, and until they are convinced, they will still offer at pretty competitive numbers. One of the major concerns is that traders who sell into Turkey have been holding back until after the referendum there on April 16, at least on chemicals, though it would appear that a ship is loading 6,000 tons of base oils in Liepaja, Latvia, for Turkey, in spite of the uncertainty. Owners have therefore switched their attention to cargoes going into the West Mediterranean, which could lead to lower levels in that direction.

Northbound business feels as though it is a little slower this week, although prompt space is not that plentiful. Demand revolves mostly around aromatics this week, with benzene talked from Lavera, France; Skikda, Algeria; Aliaga, Turkey; Constanza, Romania; and Illichevsk, Ukraine. Toluene in the amount of 5,500 tons was booked from Priolo, Italy, to Antwerp-Rotterdam-Amsterdam for around 48-49 per metric ton. Base oils in the amount of 9,000 tons succeeded in fixing Kavkaz, Russia to Rotterdam, Netherlands.

Business will probably quieten down along the Inter-Mediterranean route closer to Easter, but for now there has been a steady trade in biodiesel in the West Mediterranean, and prompt space has become somewhat elusive at times. Several ships have been caught up in berthing delays and their cargoes have been relet and gone some way to covering the remaining prompt ships. A number of base oil shipments have been performed, both out of the Black Sea and also from the West Mediterranean.

It has been a week in which a few traders have stepped out and fixed aromatics westbound, but with fickle commodity pricing, these requirements come in their ones and twos and not a deluge that sets the market alight. Toluene in the amount of 5,000 tons from Houston, U.S., to Rotterdam, for example, was confirmed fixed at $40/t. Some paraxylene was noted and others have sampled the possibility of sending mixed xylenes across. Acetone in the amount of 3,500 tons from Antwerp-Rotterdam-Amsterdam to Houston went in the high $40s/t. The enquiry for 3,000-4,000 tons of base oils from Antwerp-Rotterdam-Amsterdam to Houston were also covered, apparently, and probably at similar levels to the acetone.

Several ships have still some space left to fill along the route into the Far East in April, but for one reason or another they are not ideal candidates for much of the chemicals business currently out there. Noises have been made about possible styrene shipments to Asia, but nothing has firmed so far. Paraxylene in the amount of 10,000 tons was booked from Rotterdam to China, along with 8,000 tons of base oils to Singapore from the Mediterranean. Rates are steady on the small parcels trade of less than 1,000 tons. It will be interesting to see if the recent 65 percent increase in container rates from Europe to Asia inspires more companies to send material in bulk instead.

The situation from Europe to India and the Middle East Gulf is somewhat similar to last week, although some of the interest in aromatics and solvents has dropped away. There are nevertheless some base oil requirements kicking around, and rates on the vegetable oil business from the Black Sea are still strong enough to support ships ballasting in to load.

Asia

Several local routes are straining under the weight of too much prompt tonnage, whereas others have seen more action that has pushed the majority of ships into May. A few vessels can boast being fixed through to June, but they are in the minority. Essentially, the intra-Far East market is reasonably active, particularly in the triangle between Korea, China and Taiwan.

Southbound, though, is pretty dire for owners, with minimal business showing. Coming back north, the markets are still reasonably active and most April ships are full, apart from a few larger units that still have part-cargo space remaining. The situation on the intra-Southeast Asia market is not particularly encouraging for owners. Both spot and contractual volumes are felt to be reduced, and, since the palm oil market is not that bright, there are more vessels around looking for alternatives. In all this, base oil demand is infrequent, partly because supplies are tight and there is not much volume physically available to be moved this month. Moreover, individual parcels are very small, causing some suppliers to look at combing several cargoes into one in order to keep rates manageable, even if that entails calling at multiple ports to discharge.

Benzene has begun to be quoted on the transpacific east export route, not in any great volume yet, nor terribly firm, but, with more Asian styrene plants going down, it should promote more benzene availability. At the same time, the U.S. styrene plants are coming back from turnaround, and benzene prices are firmer in the U.S. but softening in Asia. Rates are still largely unchanged, with 5,000-ton parcels being in the low $40s/t from Korea to Houston. Scheduled space to Europe is relatively tight until May, and there are not many outsiders to call upon until later in May, meaning that rates appear steady.

There has been a rise in the amount of Iranian business quoted, following the return to work after the Nowruz celebrations. This will trickle through the system, taking out ships that have been busy with cargoes from other loading areas in the Middle East Gulf and India, and will gradually tighten the tonnage situation. Eastbound is relatively firm. Easy chemicals in the amount of 16,500 tons from Al Jubail, Saudi Arabia, to Southeast Asia were covered at $41/t, for example. Westbound, however, still has a number of scheduled ships with space.

Adrian Brown is a senior market analyst for chemicals and base oils with SSY Shipbrokers, London, can be reached atfix@ssychems.comor +44 12 0750 7507. Information about SSY can be found atwww.ssyonline.com. In the Houston office,Steve Rosenthalof SSY’s Chemical Tanker Department can be reached directly at +1 (713) 652-2700 and Jordi Maymi in Singapore can be reached at +65 6854-7127.

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