Najarian disclosed that Total Nigeria, in anticipation of the markets shift to higher grade base oils, is already importing premium base oils for synthetic and high quality lubricants.

Jani Ibrahim, chairman of Lubcon International Ltd., noted that the Nigerian lubricant market is price-sensitive enough to discourage a switch to more expensive stocks, but he added that it is just a matter of time before blenders shift to higher grade base oils.

There are OEMs coming into Nigeria, and by the time they begin to set the standard, the lubricant industry is going to shift, said Ibrahim.

However, Linus Ilozue, managing director for A-Z Petroleum Products Ltd., said traders in Nigeria are inhibiting the shift from Group I by refusing to import Group II or higher grade oils.

We are at the mercy of base oil importers, and it is what they import that we will buy. There is hope, but it requires some orientation and regulation, said Ilozue.

Robert Nobel, CEO of Chemlube International LLC, noted that there is a lot of willingness and interest to raise the quality level of finished lubricants on the Nigerian market. But doing so is difficult, he said, because of the climate and uniformity of warm weather.

There is not a big demand for lighter-viscosity as opposed to the higher-viscosity finished lubricants, which pushes [blenders] more toward Group I for the heavy-viscosity solvent neutrals, and even bright stocks, as one of the components of the blends, said Nobel. Group I base oil plants produce higher portions of heavy stocks than Group II or III plants.

Ilozue said the market needs government to support the shift from Group I.

If government says it [supports] Group II and monitors it effectively, it will work, but if it is left to market forces, the man importing Group I, who feels that Group I is where he makes his profit, will mop up all the crumbs from Group I in the refinery, Ilozue added.

He emphasized that much of the base oil produced in Europe and the United States are Group II and Group III, a pattern that has made Group I bright stock scarce on the global market. Group II and III plants do not produce bright stock.

So heavy oils are scarce, and that is why bright stock continues to be very expensive. So it is something that requires the force of law or persuasion, said Ilozue.

Najarian anticipates that within three years, Group II oils will become predominant in Nigerias market.

The cost of Group II base oil will decrease worldwide, and the price difference between Group I and Group II will be negligible, so that Nigeria will easily leap quickly to Group II, Najarian said.