SSY Base Oil Shipping Report

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The U.S. Gulf is fast becoming tight on available space in most directions. Europe also had a fairly busy week, and even Asian markets are looking a little better than they have for a couple of weeks.

U.S. Gulf
It is becoming apparent that trade is picking up in the U.S. Gulf, because almost every major trade lane is reported to be tight on prompt space. We have seen this development on the U.S. Gulf to Far East service for several weeks now.

Firstly, contractual obligations improved and now the spot side of things is picking up. Several large cargoes of ethylene dichloride are under discussion. Aromatics continue to move, such as paraxylene and mixed xylenes. Styrene is reportedly unworkable due to the lack of arbitrage, but instead we notice cargoes of ethanol, phenol and biodiesel.

A large cargo of base oils was apparently booked from U.S. Gulf to Singapore in the low $90s, which is higher than before. Nonene in the amount of 2,000 tons from Curacao to Yangtze is said to have gone in excess of $190/t, although the rate has yet to be verified.

U.S. Gulf to the east coast of South America remains active, with several prompt cargoes of caustic, styrene and base oils to be shipped. Space for such parcels, however, is scarce, and rates are beginning to move upwards.

Even Transatlantic eastbound is said to be looking much tighter on vessel space. Aside from good contractual volumes, a mishap to a large parcel tanker has meant a deluge of rebookings and relet opportunities which have benefitted the rest of the scheduled fleet.

Caustic, methanol, benzene and vegetable oils have been heading over to Europe. Phenol in the amount of 2,000 tons from Philadelphia to Antwerp-Rotterdam-Amsterdam was worked at $135/t, which is some $30-40/t higher than expected, although that particular deal finally failed to materialize.

According to some, there should be an influx of outsiders at this point, but the reality is that the pool of uncommitted tonnage is not that large, and moreover, when there is demand from several routes at the same time, owners are able to play this to their advantage. Rather than seeing freights decline on all these routes as some would suggest, there is in fact a greater chance that rates will rise, provided demand continues at the same pace.

Europe
The increase in demand for end of May loading in the North Sea and Baltic highlighted in last weeks report has spilled over into June, with the result that prompt space has thinned out. One of the tricks in this region is to retain as much flexibility as possible over loading dates because changing dates by even a day or two can produce completely different results.

The route southbound into the Mediterranean is much busier than last week, boosting freight levels. For example, 6,300 tons of base oils from Fawley, England, to Vasto, Italy, fetched over $55/t, whereas another shipment of 7,000 tons base oils from Fawley and Port Jerome, France, to Augusta, Italy, commanded around $37/t. It has to be said that Vasto is more restricted than Augusta. Other cargoes such as FAME and ethanol into the West Mediterranean have seen freights rise by 2-3.00/t.

Northbound is also far from dull, with a wide variety of cargoes for owners to chase, including some base oils from the Adriatic.

Inter-Mediterranean routes also enjoyed quite an active week and there have been far fewer idle ships in the area. West Mediterranean looks to be pretty tight on available space and finding a bargain freight level has become harder.

Transatlantic westbound remains reasonably buoyant. The number of cargoes that need to be shipped exceeds the amount of scheduled space, meaning that charterers may have to dip into the pool of outsider tonnage which could provoke some firmer freight levels.

Demand is comprised mainly of cargoes of paraxylene, sulphuric acid, caustic, pyrolysis gasoline, cumene, base oils, biodiesel, urea ammonia nitrate, and small lots of gasoline components.

The route from Europe to Far East is a little on the quiet side and there is open space through June. Rates are in a holding pattern, which means that a 5,000 ton parcel from Rotterdam to main Far East ports would fetch around $90/t currently. Base oils are one of the main commodities being quoted into Asia.

Europe to India-Middle East Gulf is also subdued, except again for base oils, of which several cargoes have been fixed.

Asia
While not exactly rampant, the domestic Asia market continues to report a slow but steady increase in June demand. As with last week, there are some ships that have bits and pieces of space from here to there, but there are not many that are totally stuck.

Some larger lots of aromatics have been seen enquiring into China, while Taiwan has emerged as a popular destination for some of the aromatics trade. Asia export markets continue to see firm freight ideas from owners.

The U.S. is attracting cargoes of benzene, toluene pyrolysis gasoline, caustic, sulphuric acid and biodiesel, and Europe is also seeing demand for some of these products.

Palm oil markets, however, see less demand and consequently freight levels have declined into India, China, and even on the larger lots to the west. However, the approaching Ramadan festivities are expected to spark a revival in trade into India.

On the westbound route out of the Middle East Gulf to India area, space is not that plentiful. Caustic, methanol, MTBE, ethanol, phosphoric acid, acetates and acrylonitrile have all been noted.

Eastbound is moderately busy. Cargoes such as methanol, MTBE and aromatics are often to be found. Equally, there are a number of ships that can accommodate most prompt parcels, but should the owners decide that they do not have to send the ships back to Asia then they will find quite a vibrant regional market with many cargoes of pyrolysis gasoline, MTBE, benzene, styrene, glycols, ethylene dichloride, caustic, base oils, methanol and ethanol.

Adrian Brown is senior market analyst for chemicals and base oils with SSY Shipbrokers, London. Information about SSY can be found atwww.ssyonline.com. Adrian Brown, in the U.K., can be reached atfix@ssychems.comor by phone at +44 1207-507507. In the London office SSYs Jordi Maymi can be reached atfix@ssychems.comor +44 20 7977 7560.

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