Megatrends Play Out in India

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MUMBAI, India – India will feel the greatest demographic and social pressures in coming decades, as young people spiral up consumption, shops turn into corporations and rural society mechanizes, the ICIS Indian Base Oils Conference heard.

Anirban Ghosh, vice president for strategic planning and new business development at automaker Mahindra & Mahindra, projected the impact of global megatrends on Indian society in his April 23 keynote talk at the first ICIS Indian lubricants conference here. Ghosh addressed 175 delegates from 22 countries at the opening session.

Ghosh highlighted some of the mega-trends from John Naisbitts influential 1982 book, Megatrends, including the move from an industrial to an information society; evolution of technology to high tech and high touch; the move from national to a world economy; the shift from a short-term to a long-term focus. But what comes next?

Ghosh identified 10 key trends that every industry and business must be ready to face. First, he said, is the demographic bulge. There will be more people, as the world population rises from seven billion today to around 10 billion by 2050, Ghosh said, but there will also be more people in the middle. From 2010 to 2020, he predicted, middle income households will increase from 21 percent to 29 percent of total households worldwide, while the percent of lower income households drops from 61 percent to 50 percent.

The population bulge will occur almost entirely in developing countries, Ghosh went on. While the population of industrialized countries stays much the same from 2000 to 2050, developing countries will add some four billion new citizens.

Urbanization is the second major trend. Expect to find more people in cities, and more cities with populations over one million. By 2025, Ghosh predicted, China alone will be home to nearly 130 cities with populations over a million; India will have nearly 60 such metropolises; Europe and Africa will each have nearly 65; while the United States will have about 50.

As soon as 2015, 16 of the worlds 20 biggest cities will be in developing countries, and 56 percent of the worlds population will be urban. This illustrates Ghoshs third major trend, a bias towards emerging markets, mostly in southern and Southeast Asia.

A fourth trend is the empowerment of women, said Ghosh. There are more women today in higher education in emerging markets.

There are more people but there is a scarcity of labor, a shortage of skilled labor, said Ghosh. This fifth trend is a concern for manufacturers in India today.

Number six on Ghoshs list is that life will increasingly be on-the-go. We have mobile phones, ATMs, tablets, he said. Everything is faster and all information is available everywhere.

Unfortunately, Ghosh continued, some trends are less positive. Trend number seven is a rise in social inequity around the world. In 1900, average per capita GDP in the top five countries was six times higher than average per capita GDP in the bottom five countries. By 2000, per capita GDP was 60 times higher in the five richest countries than in the bottom five. This can lead to social unrest, financial unrest, pricing crises and other serious disruptions.

Climate change is the eighth key trend. The threat is real, and we know it, said Ghosh. And it leads to the ninth trend, the intensification of sustainability efforts. Water scarcity will grow, fuels are changing, there will be more electric mobility, and individuals will focus increasingly on personal wellness.

Finally, said Ghosh, the tenth trend is limitless technology. Examples include cloud computing and the huge buildup of data – everyone is being profiled. Batteries are smaller and cheaper, while data storage is more efficient. Devices are smarter, and well need more food from less land.

What does all of this portend for India?

The greatest pressures will be felt in India, where the young, todays teenagers, will spiral up consumption, said Ghosh. Well see the emergence of the rural, shops will move to become corporations.

Indias household consumption is expected to increase by 14 percent per year from 2010 to 2020, a higher increase even than Chinas at 12 percent.

India will benefit from a demographic dividend. In 2011, 52 percent of its population was working age. That will increase to 56 percent in 2020, as the working age population jumps by 180 million. Fully 75 percent of Indias population in 2020 will have grown up under the countrys liberalized economy.

This new generation of Indians is exposed to the world. Twelve million Indians traveled abroad in 2010, compared to just 2 million in 1990. This generation of Indians wants lots of consumer options. For example, there are 33 times more car models available today than 30 years.

Todays younger Indians are comfortable with credit, increasingly using credit cards and taking out housing loans. They like to spend on themselves, pouring U.S. $24 billion into beauty and personal care products in 2010, up from just $3 billion in 2000. And todays Indians do not have a scarcity mind-set. Fully 66 percent of Indian households now have electricity connections.

Indias roads and rail systems will expand as its cities grow. By 2015, said Ghosh, India will have 41 cities with populations of one to two million; 13 cities with populations of two to five million; nine megacities with populations over 5 million. Mumbai, where Mahindra & Mahindra is headquartered, expects to be home to nearly 23 million. Delhi will count more than 21 million.

Not all trends in India are clear-cut, Ghosh noted. For example, there are moves to organize labor and to make it more casual. Land is being consolidated and fragmented at the same time. Many students leave India, often for the American dream, while others return. Drivers want both efficient smaller vehicles and SUVs.

The result, Ghosh concluded, is a web effect, of the ten key trends interacting. India is

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