SSY Base Oil Shipping Report

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The U.S. is tight for December, but may be running out of steam. Europe is a little busier on some deep-sea routes, but volumes on domestic routes are below the seasonal average. Asia is doing okay, and supply/demand is well matched.

U.S. Gulf of Mexico
Routes in and around the Caribbean are performing satisfactorily without any major drama. There is some open space for end November, and there is a new batch of chemicals, vegetable oils and tallow cargoes being quoted for end November and early December shipment.

U.S. Gulf to the east coast of South America is busy with styrene and caustic into Brazil. Base oils and MTBE are being quoted from the U.S. Gulf to Argentina. Freights for 5,000 ton cargoes from Houston to Santos are in the upper $40s/t.

Owners are proving to be fairly resilient on transatlantic eastbound business, and even though a couple of ships still have some last gaps to cover they remain bullish on freight ideas. Levels being quoted for 5,000 ton parcels from Houston to Rotterdam have increased into the upper $40s/t. Toluene, ethanol, cumene and caustic have all been worked back to Europe. From Houston to Turkey 2,000 ton parcels have been picking up mid $70s/t.

U.S. Gulf to Far East remains tight for November, but the number of new freight enquiries is diminishing quickly. So much material has already been committed that finding available material has become harder. Timing too means that anything shipped after mid December runs the risk of falling into the Chinese New Year celebrations. The Thanksgiving holiday in the United States is another reason why this week has been quieter. A 10,000 ton cargo of benzene/toluene/xylene from Houston to the Far East was fixed at $70/t over the week, but such levels are becoming increasingly rare, and we would suggest rates for December will be discounted from this level by as much as $5/t.

Europe
Business has been slow in the North Sea, though Baltic movements are ramping up towards year-end. Southbound into the Mediterranean has been fairly active with base oils, methanol, biodiesel and ETBE. Northbound is a bit thin, though enlivened with some styrene shipments from Tarragona to Northwest Europe, reportedly at around 19/t for 5,000 ton sizes. Inter-Mediterranean deals have not been that prolific, yet owners are reluctant to give way on their freight ideas.

Transatlantic westbound spawned some pyrolysis gasoline, benzene and paraxylene quotations. Rates are flat on this service, with low $30s/t being reported on 5,000 ton cargoes from Rotterdam to Houston. Several cargoes of base oil, acid, styrene and MTBE have been worked into South America from Europe.

Europe-to-Asia has been more active, though there is quite a lot of open space still. From Poland to China, 2,000 to 3,000 ton parcels of chemicals are believed to have ended up costing in the low $130s/t. A typical 5,000 ton enquiry Rotterdam to principal Far East ports would fetch low $70s/t.

Asia
It has been another week of consistent business within Asia. Freight levels on the majority of domestic routes have either increased slightly or have remained stable. Styrene, paraffins and acetone cargoes typify the trade into China, with pyrolysis gasoline, styrene and toluene being seen more frequently on the northbound route from Southeast Asia.

As a general guide, export trades are stable, though rates back into India and the Middle East Gulf took a bit of a knock, in spite of several good opportunities to fix benzene, toluene and caustic. Levels for 4,000 to 5,000 ton parcels from Ulsan to Mumbai have dipped into the mid $40s/t territory. Elsewhere, volumes out of the Middle East Gulf and India have begun to climb, and rates remain firm westbound into Europe, and stable-to-firm eastbound to Asia.

Adrian Brown is senior market analyst for chemicals and base oils with SSY Shipbrokers, London. Information about SSY can be found at www.ssyonline.com. Adrian Brown, in the U.K., can be reached directly at research@ssy.co.uk or by phone at +44 1207-507507. In the U.S., SSYs Steve Rosenthal can be reached at fix@ssychems.com or +1 203-961-1566.

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