ROTTERDAM, the Netherlands – Global electric vehicle sales have grown at high double-digit rates for the past several years, leading to forecasts of EVs becoming large portions of the worldwide car parc. Unexpected changes in technology and politics could speed up or slow the trend, hampering efforts to predict when such advances will occur, an industry insider said at a conference here.
Paul Kerwin, base oils account director in Multisol, applied the so called black swan theory of the Lebanese-American scholar Nassim Nicholas Taleb, to explain future technological developments and their impact on the automotive or lubricants industry. The theory is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect and is often rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight.
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