The growth in vehicle and motorcycle sales is one of the key drivers for changing lubricant demand across Asia, said Mike McCabe, Asia-Pacific marketing manager for lubricant additive supplier Lubrizol Corp. The increase in cars will drive an increase in oil.

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations is a 10-nation economic, social and cultural block. The ASEAN Automotive Federation, which is based in Manila, Philippines, reports sales and production statistics for seven of those nations: Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.

In 2013, sales of new cars and commercial vehicles rose 2 percent to 3.6 million, while sales of motorcycles and scooters climbed 5 percent to 11.1 million. Thailand, which has the greatest number of four-wheeler sales, experienced a 7 percent drop in that segment, decreasing to 1.3 million, but four-wheeler sales in Indonesia rose 10 percent, to 1.2 million. Four-wheeler sales in the Philippines jumped 16 percent to 181,738, while those in Vietnam increased 23 percent to 98,649.

Indonesia accounts for 70 percent of ASEAN motorcycle and scooter sales, and sales there rose 9 percent in 2013 to 7.8 million. Thailand, the blocks second-biggest market, saw two-wheeler sales fall 6 percent to 2 million. Sales in Singapore jumped 17 percent to 11,650.

The population of motorcycles and scooters far exceeds the number of cars and commercial vehicles both in Southeast Asia and across Asia, but McCabe argued that cars and commercial vehicles have more potential for growth in the broader region – and hence offer more opportunity for lubricant marketers.

We estimate that from 2012 to 2020, the total number of cars on the road in Asia will double to around 460 million, he told Lube Report Asia Friday, adding that this could raise engine oil demand by around 900,000 metric tons per year, based on middle-of-the-road assumptions about oil drain intervals, driving practices and other factors. But whether it is 500,000 or 1 million tons does not really matter; it is a lot of extra oil.

Southeast Asia has become a hub for two- and four-wheeler manufacturing in recent years, as manufacturers build factories to supply growing demand and to take advantage of cheaper labor. The growing industry means opportunity for lubricant companies supplying factory fill automotive lubes and industrial lubricants consumed in factories.

ASEAN production of cars and commercial vehicles rose 5 percent in 2013 to 4.4 million, while production of motorcycles and scooters increased 4 percent to 11.3 million. For four-wheelers, there was virtually no change in Thailand, the biggest producer, which had output of 2.5 million, while production in Indonesia jumped 13 percent to 1.2 million. Indonesian production of two-wheelers swelled 10 percent to 7.8 million, while Thailands dropped 15 percent to 2.2 million.

ASEAN sales of cars and commercial vehicles have increased 99 percent since 2006, while production of those vehicles shot up 123 percent. Two-wheeler sales rose 49 percent over the same period, and two-wheeler production rose 51 percent.

ASEAN Automotive Federation Automobile Sales

(Data from Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam)

1. No data for Philippines

2. Missing two months of sales of 4 brands in Thailand

Source: ASEAN Automotive Federation