Sales at oil change and lubrication shops in the United States climbed 10% to $6.3 billion in 2021, compared to $5.7 billion in 2020, according to a joint report by the Auto Care Association and the Automotive Aftermarket Suppliers Association. This could reflect a rebound from impacts of pandemic-related restrictions during 2020, which marked a slight decline from 2019.
Known as the channel forecast model, the report covers sales histories and forecasts for a wide variety of automotive aftermarket categories, and it also predicts sales for coming years. It forecasted that sales by oil change and lubrication shops will grow by a compound annual rate of almost 7% to $7.8 billion in 2025. From 2017 to 2021, sales for oil change and lubrication shops grew at a compound annual rate of 5%.
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Average sales per oil change and lubrication shop in the U.S. rose 7% to $835,845 in 2021, compared to $780,151 in 2020. Over the five years starting in 2017, the average sales per such shop increased at a compound annual rate of 3%.
The channel forecast model follows the North American Industry Classification System, which defines automotive oil change and lubrication shops as establishments that mainly engage in changing motor oil and lubricating the chassis of automotive vehicles. The system is used for establishment-based federal economic statistics classified by industry for the United States, Mexico and Canada.
Preliminary U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data indicated the number of oil change and lubrication shops in the U.S. edged up 2% to 7,486 as of the third quarter of 2021, compared to 7,305 in 2020. Since 2013, the total has remained nearly flat, increasing by a 0.1% compound annual rate. The main sources of data used as inputs in the channel forecast model are U.S. Economic Census data, Industrial Marketing Research Inc. and S&P Global Mobility, for economic data as well as industry data provided by its automotive group