Sales for oil change and lubrication shops in the United States reached an estimated $6.6 billion in 2019, up 5% from $6.3 billion the previous year, according to a joint report by the Auto Care Association and the Automotive Aftermarket Suppliers Association.
Called the channel forecast model, the report includes sales histories and forecasts for a wide assortment of automotive aftermarket categories. The report forecasts sales by oil change and lubrication shops to grow by a compound annual rate of 4.3% to $7.8 billion in 2023 – the highest predicted growth rate among the report’s aftermarket service categories. Since 2014, sales for oil change and lubrication shops grew at a compound annual rate of 4.3%. The growth rate for the overall automotive car was 3.6% from 2014 to 2019 and is projected to be 3.3% through 2023.
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Average sales per oil change and lube shop in the U.S. reached $903,656 in 2019, up 5% from $860,621 in 2018. Over the five-year period beginning in 2014, the average sales per shop increased at a compound annual rate of 4.3%.
According to a preliminary estimate by the U.S. Bureau of Labor statistics, the number of oil change and lubrication shops in the U.S. slipped to 7,276 in 2019, down 0.5% from 7,311 in 2018. Since 2011 their number declined by a compound annual rate of 0.4%.
The channel forecast model follows the North American Industry Classification System, which defines automotive oil change and lubrication shops as establishments primarily engaged in changing motor oil and lubricating the chassis of automotive vehicles. The system is used for establishment-based federal economic statistics classified by industry for the United States, Mexico and Canada.
The main sources of data used as inputs in the channel forecast model are U.S. economic census data, Industrial Marketing Research Inc. and IHS Markit Inc. – for economic data as well as industry data provided by its automotive group, which includes the former R.L. Polk.