U.S. Energy Demand Flat to 2040


The United States’ energy demand is projected to remain essentially flat out to 2040, down just 1 percent, and Brazils is expected to increase 2.2 percent, according to the 2019 BP Energy Outlook.

The outlook predicts that the United States’ share in global energy demand will decline from 16.5 percent in 2017 to 12.4 percent in 2040. The nation’s energy demand is not expected to grow through 2040 – a zero percent annual growth rate in fact – with its energy consumption actually declining 1 percent during the 2017-2040 period. The outlook expects the U.S. to become energy self-sufficient by 2020.

Improvements in vehicle efficiency should cause energy use in transport in the U.S. to fall by a 0.7 percent compound annual rate to 2040, after growing by a 0.8 percent CAGR from 1995 to 2017. Energy consumption for transport is projected to decline by a total of 15 percent from 2017 to 2040.

Renewables are expected to triple in the share of supply that they provide, from 6 percent in 2017 to 18 percent in 2040, the outlook estimates, and should surpass coal as the second-largest source of power generation by fuel input in the late 2020s, nearly equaling natural gas by 2040.

The outlook projects that the U.S. will remain the world’s largest producer of liquid fuels and natural gas. Oil production could increase by 5 million barrels per day over the outlook period to reach 19 million b/d by 2040. Additionally, the U.S. will become a net oil exporter in the early 2020s, the outlook suggests.

Brazil’s share in global energy demand will edge up from 2.2 percent in 2017 to 2.7 percent in 2040. The regions energy demand will increase by a compound annual rate of 2.2 percent over the next 21 years, much faster than the global growth rate of 1.2 percent.

BP noted that energy demand by buildings in the country will grow 91 percent through 2040, while transport grows by 62 percent.

The company anticipates that Brazil’s consumption of every fuel will increase during the period. Renewables – including biofuels – have the highest expected growth rate, increasing 175 percent from 2017 to 2040. Natural gas is projected to increase by 114 percent, and oil by 39 percent during the forecast period.

The outlook expects Brazil’s energy mix to shift towards non-fossil fuels, with hydro, renewable and nuclear power accounting for almost 50 percent of the country’s energy mix by 2040, up from 43 percent in 2017.

The 2019 BP Energy Outlook documents may be downloaded from the BP website.

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