Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries are beginning to disrupt the country’s PCMO market, with lubricant suppliers reporting shortages, longer delivery times and price increases of as much as 100% for some products.
Ukraine ramped up its long-range drone attacks on Russian energy infrastructure in 2024. Since then, hundreds of drones routinely destroy Russian refineries and logistics hubs.
Russian lubricant market participants told Russian newspaper Kommersant that supplies of automotive oils have become less reliable, with some popular products unavailable and delivery times extending from about two days to as long as two weeks. Prices for lubricants have risen by up to 100% over the past two months, according to reports. on automotive sites.
Russian oil processing fell to about 3.6 million barrels per day in July, according to figures cited by The New Voice of Ukraine.
For lubricant producers, the problem extends beyond refinery throughput. Market participants cited shortages of raw materials and imported additives used in lubricant manufacturing. Some additive components are produced domestically, but the finished additives have traditionally been sourced from overseas, leaving blenders exposed to both refinery disruptions and import constraints.
Russia is not yet experiencing a lubricant shortage on the scale of its fuel crisis, and market participants do not expect automotive oils to become as scarce as gasoline. The current disruption appears to be concentrated in particular products and supply chains rather than representing a nationwide loss of lubricant availability.
Fuel shortages could further increase lubricant demand. Russia has authorized the production, import and sale of lower-grade K2, K3 and K4 gasoline through July 2027 as authorities try to compensate for reduced fuel availability. The lower-quality fuels contain higher levels of sulfur, and market participants say their use could lead motorists to change engine oil more frequently.