Ukraine’s expanding drone campaign against Russian oil infrastructure has reached facilities producing base oils and lubricants, raising concerns that repeated attacks could disrupt fuel supplies and reduce refining capacity across Russia.
The latest incidents are part of a broader campaign that has methodically targeted Russia’s refining sector in recent months in response to continued Russian attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure and civilian targets.
For lubricant industry participants, the most significant strike remains the attack on Lukoil’s refinery in Perm, one of Russia’s key production sites for base oils and lubricants and a major supplier to the country’s defense sector.
The refinery, located in Russia’s Ural region, was struck by Ukrainian drones on May 7. The attack followed a drone strike on the Metafrax Chemicals plant in nearby Gubakha, another major industrial facility in the Perm region, which prompted temporary airspace restrictions and airport closures.
Industry reports indicated damage to processing units at the Perm refinery, forcing the facility to halt or reduce operations while repairs were carried out. Local reports described air-quality concerns and complaints from residents about soot and dark particulate fallout following refinery fires, similar to the “black rain” reported after attacks on oil facilities in Tuapse.
The site is one of Russia’s largest integrated refining and lubricant manufacturing complexes. Its base oil plant has capacity to produce 480,000 metric tons per year of API Group I base oils used in Lukoil’s lubricant portfolio for domestic and export markets.
The latest attacks shifted attention to St. Petersburg, where Ukrainian drones targeted the Petersburg Oil Terminal, one of Russia’s largest petroleum export hubs on the Baltic Sea. The strikes, which occurred during the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, reportedly caused fires and disrupted operations linked to petroleum exports. Drones also targeted military port facilities near Kronstadt and other infrastructure associated with Russia’s refined products logistics network.
While the St. Petersburg attacks did not directly affect lubricant production, they highlighted Ukraine’s growing focus on export terminals, storage facilities and transportation infrastructure disruting Russia’s petroleum trade, including base oils.
Many of these sites have experienced repeated attacks, forcing operators to conduct repairs, reduce throughput or temporarily halt processing.
Analysts remain divided over the impact on Russia’s fuel market.
“Russia’s gasoline market remains finely balanced for now, with Ukrainian strikes having removed much of the country’s surplus refining capacity but not yet causing a widespread supply crunch,” Sergey Vakulenko, an energy expert with the Berlin-based Carnegie Center, recently told Deutsche Welle. According to Vakulenko, Ukrainian attacks have reduced gasoline production by roughly the same volume that previously existed as surplus capacity, estimated at 10%-15%.
“If Ukraine intensifies the attacks, then by the end of the summer the situation could indeed be worse than last year,” he said.
Others warn the situation is already becoming serious.
“The situation on the fuel market is critical,” economist Vyacheslav Shiryaev said, arguing that continued attacks could trigger a broader fuel crisis. According to Shiryaev, only about 45% of Russia’s gasoline production capacity remains fully operational.
“People send me information every day about locations where there is no gasoline available and where sales are limited to 15 liters per customer,” he said. “These are already practically all central regions of Russia — Ryazan, the Moscow region and the central European part of Russia. Fuel supply problems are appearing everywhere.”
Additional strikes in recent weeks have hit several of Russia’s major refining and port centers. Rosneft’s Ryazan refinery reportedly suspended operations following a drone attack and fire on May 15. Ukraine also claimed responsibility for strikes against the Volgograd refinery on May 19, where operations were disrupted after damage to processing units. Volgograd is a major base oil and lubricant and grease production center. Attacks on facilities in Tuapse and Novorossiysk reportedly delayed shipments of petroleum products, including base oils.
While the extent of the disruption remains disputed, Ukraine’s increasingly effective long-range drone campaign has demonstrated its ability to reach critical energy infrastructure deep inside Russia. For lubricant producers and base oil consumers, facilities such as Perm remain among the most strategically important targets because prolonged outages could affect both domestic supply and exports.