Drone Strikes Disrupt Russian Baltic Export Routes

Loadings at both ports were temporarily suspended after the strikes, tightening export availability. At the peak of the disruption, as much as 40% of Russia’s oil exports were affected, according to Reuters estimates, citing halted Baltic shipments and reduced flows from Novorossiysk on the Black Sea, which has also faced drone attacks.

While Primorsk and Ust-Luga do not handle base oil exports directly, traders said the impact on logistics is already spilling over into the lubricants market. Railcars are taking longer to unload, delaying cargo flows across the export system.

“Ust-Luga and Primorsk never handled base oil exports. In general, attacks on the ports make logistics harder – rail wagons are not discharged for longer periods, adding delays to all export operations,” said Denis Varaksin, a Berlin-based base oil trader.

He expects freight costs to rise as disruptions ripple through the system. “Base oil prices roughly doubled during March, and shortages are so severe that buyers are accepting delays,” Varaksin said, pointing to seasonal demand and reduced output at several refineries damaged in Ukrainian attacks.

Other traders said prolonged disruption could tighten availability of API Group I grades, which still move in smaller volumes through Baltic channels despite sanctions. Container shipments – more resilient than bulk flows facing tighter inspections in countries such as France and Belgium – could also slow if port operations remain constrained.

Ukraine has stepped up strikes on Russian energy infrastructure in recent months, targeting refineries in the Leningrad region, Krasnodar territory and Bashkortostan, alongside export terminals. Black Sea ports such as Tuapse and Kavkaz have also seen disruptions, adding further strain to logistics.

Primorsk, a key outlet for Urals crude on the Gulf of Finland, was hit on March 23, damaging fuel storage tanks and sparking a fire that burned for at least four days. Ust-Luga, Russia’s largest port by cargo throughput, was struck three times between March 25 and March 31, damaging installations at a Novatek facility, including fuel and refined product storage.

Oil market analyst Boris Aronshtein said the timing and targeting of the strikes amplified their impact.

“Russia is trying to maximize exports, as increasing production is more difficult. These strikes directly interfere with those plans,” he told Meduza outlet.

He estimated losses of U.S. $70 million to $80 million per day, depending on how quickly flows can be restored or rerouted.

Together, the ports handle a large share of Russia’s seaborne crude and refined product exports. In 2025, Ust-Luga moved about 130.5 million metric tons of cargo, while Primorsk handled nearly 64 million tons. Combined, they load more than 1.7 million barrels per day of crude and petroleum products.

Ust-Luga also supports marine lubricant supply. Gazprom Neft Marine Bunker operates there, supplying vessels with marine oils as part of its Baltic network.

Kaliningrad, Russia’s Baltic enclave, has so far avoided drone strikes and remains an alternative export node. Lukoil operates a base oil terminal there, although its current status is unclear following the company’s retreat from parts of the European market.

The latest disruptions add to earlier constraints, including the shutdown of the southern branch of the Druzhba pipeline in January. Together, these pressures are tightening Russia’s export system as global oil prices strengthen amid tensions involving Iran.

For the lubricants sector, the attacks reinforce a key risk: the reliability of Russian export infrastructure. Repeated strikes on major ports are raising operational risks and could tighten supply and lift prices in the months ahead.