Russia is awash with Chinese cars, yet sales are falling, dealerships are closing and hundreds of thousands of new vehicles remain unsold. That paradox is increasingly visible in lubricant demand, where passenger car motor oil volumes are under pressure despite a still-dominant Chinese presence.
Russia’s new-car market weakened sharply in 2025, reversing two years of recovery driven by Chinese automakers after Western brands exited. The slowdown is rippling through the downstream automotive value chain, particularly affecting passenger car motor oils and service-fill demand.
According to the Moscow-based Association of European Business, new passenger car sales in Russia fell 15.6% in 2025 to about 1.33 million units, down from 1.57 million a year earlier. The AEB said high interest rates, rising vehicle prices and tighter lending conditions were restraining demand and clouding the outlook for early 2026.
“High interest rates and rising costs are holding back demand, and the market is expected to weaken at the start of the year,” the AEB said in its recent news release, warning that further price increases would continue to weigh on buyers.
That overhang is weighing directly on lubricants consumption. Unsold vehicles delay the transition from factory fill to service fill, while weaker showroom traffic reduces the number of first oil changes entering the aftermarket. The impact is most pronounced in PCMO, which accounts for the largest share of automotive lubricant demand in Russia, or about 360,000 tons per year
The slowdown has been particularly visible among Chinese brands, which still dominate the market but are no longer growing. The brands such as Chery, Haval, Geely and Changan continue to account for the bulk of new sales, industry analysts say supply has increasingly outpaced demand.
Autostat, a Moscow-based consultancy in the automotive sector, estimates that sales of Chinese passenger cars in Russia fell by around 25% in 2025, dropping to about 685,000 units, based on data from consulting firm JSC PPK. Chinese brands’ market share declined to around 52% from nearly 59% a year earlier.
In its year-end release, Autostat said the market had moved from rapid expansion to saturation.
“After a period of explosive growth, demand for Chinese cars has noticeably cooled amid high loan rates and declining purchasing power,” the agency said, citing PPK data.
Industry analysts say that decline has left a large inventory overhang. Some market participants estimate that more than 300,000 new Chinese vehicles remain unsold across Russia, parked at logistics hubs or sitting idle at dealerships. Aggressive imports in 2023 and 2024, combined with shrinking consumer demand, have left dealers struggling to turn stock.
That overhang is weighing directly on lubricants consumption. Unsold vehicles delay the transition from factory fill to service fill, while weaker showroom traffic reduces the number of first oil changes entering the aftermarket. The impact is most pronounced in PCMO, which accounts for the largest share of automotive lubricant demand in Russia.
Autostat and industry sources indicate that PCMO volumes softened in 2025 as vehicle usage growth slowed and motorists stretched oil drain intervals. Analysts say economic pressure is pushing drivers to postpone routine maintenance and opt for cheaper products, eroding both volumes and margins for lubricant suppliers.
Dealer closures are compounding the problem. In the first quarter of 2025, 213 Chinese-brand car showrooms closed in Russia, out of 274 total dealership closures, according to a study cited by Gazprombank Autoleasing and reported by Russian media.
The closures reflect rising financing costs, weaker sales and declining investor appetite for multi-brand dealer networks that expanded rapidly during the Chinese-led boom. As dealerships shut down or consolidate, lubricant sales are shifting away from authorized service centers toward independent workshops, where price competition is more intense and brand loyalty weaker.
The macroeconomic backdrop points to further strain in 2026. Continued U.S. and European Union sanctions on Russian oil exports, combined with lower global crude prices, are squeezing budget revenues and limiting the state’s ability to support consumer demand. At the same time, stress in the banking sector has curtailed auto lending, a key driver of mass-market sales.
Although the Russian Central Bank has eased from peak levels, its key interest rate remains elevated, keeping auto loans expensive and discouraging both private buyers and small businesses from renewing fleets. Analysts say this is suppressing demand even for relatively affordable Chinese models.
For lubricant suppliers, the result is a structurally weaker outlook. Factory-fill demand tied to new registrations is unlikely to recover meaningfully while sales stagnate, and service-fill growth is constrained by lower mileage and longer oil-change intervals increasingly promoted by Chinese automakers.
Chinese OEMs typically specify extended drain intervals and lower-viscosity oils, supporting some premium grades but reducing overall volume throughput. Combined with dealer closures and rising price sensitivity, this is keeping PCMO demand under pressure despite the size of Russia’s car parc.
For now, Russia’s automotive lubricants market remains defined by its paradox: plenty of cars, dominated by Chinese brands, but too few buyers and too little servicing activity to sustain growth in passenger car motor oils.