Base oil imports to China fell 12% in 2024, continuing a steady decline in recent years for one of the world’s biggest importers of the material.
The value of those imports also dropped – by 15% to its second-lowest level of the past decade next to 2020, the first full year of the COVID-19 pandemic.
China is one of the world’s two biggest finished lubricant markets, and its domestic capacity for base oil production has skyrocketed the past decade, reducing dependence on foreign sources. In addition, finished lubricant demand in the country plateaued the past few years and even shrank as economic growth slowed.
The country imported 1.5 million metric tons of base oils last year, according to data from the China’s General Administration of Customs, compared to 1.7 million tons in 2023. Base oil import levels have decreased most every year for the past decade, declining from a peak of 2.8 million tons in 2016.
The registered value of base oil imports has held steadier over that period, indicating increases in average prices for imported oils. For 2024, however, the cumulative value sank even faster than quantity, to ¥11.2 billion, compared to ¥13.3 billion in 2023.
The decade’s peak declared value for base oil imports was ¥14.3 billion in 2017. Since then annual totals exceeded ¥13 billion in every year except 2020, when it fell to ¥10.5 billion.
South Korea and Singapore were once again in 2024 easily the two largest sources of base oil imports to China, accounting for 531,128 tons and 378,374 tons, respectively, or 35% and 25%. Qatar and Taiwan ranked third and fourth at 232,916 tons and 193,544 tons.
Quantities for all four countries were down from the previous year, and in the case of South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan have shrunk significantly over the past decade. Imports from South Korea amounted to 662,722 tons in 2023, from Singapore to 445,019 tons, from Qatar to 234,977 tons and from Taiwan to 187,409 tons.
Shipments from Qatar, which is home to the Pearl gas-to-liquids joint venture between Shell and Qatar Petroleum – which includes a large API Group III base oil plant – have grown significantly in recent years, from 74,236 tons in 2015, and reached their highest level in 2023. But those from other big source nations are down sharply. South Korea’s highest level over that span was 990,037 tons in 2015, while Singapore’s was 796,992 tons in 2016 and Taiwan’s was 432,785 tons in 2019.