Ukrainian drone strikes damaged key crude oil distillation units and curtailed base oil output at two Rosneft refineries in Russia, industry sources told Lube Report on Tuesday.
The attack was the first strike on a major Russian refinery since March 2025 and happened at a time of heightened geopolitical tensions, including a 10-12-day deadline set by U.S. President Donald Trump for Moscow to agree to a ceasefire with Kyiv, ahead of a planned Trump-Putin summit in Alaska this week.
Rosneft’s Novokuibyshevsk and Ryazan plants are major fuel producers. Novokuibyshevsk can process 8.3 million metric tons per year (about 160,000 barrels per day) of crude oil and houses one of the country’s largest base oil, lubricants and additives operations..
The refinery operators cut output sharply from the 260,000 t/y API Group I base oil unit as a result of the attack on Aug. 2. The Novokuibyshevsk’s oils and additives plant on other side of the industrial complex was not hit and continues operating.
The strike damaged the CDU-11 primary unit – commissioned in 1988 and modernized in later years – which normally processes 18,900 tons per day of crude and feeds the refinery’s base oil block. The smaller CDU-9 unit (4,700 t/d), which is much older, was already scheduled for maintenance in August and early September, leaving the plant without full primary distillation capacity.
Multiple sources said Novokuibyshevsk is expected to remain largely offline for at least a month while damage is assessed and repair and construction work proceed.
A Russian industry insider, speaking on condition of anonymity for fear of retribution, said the CDU-11 outage represents “a major loss of capacity,” adding, “Repairs will last at least until September. The refinery mainly served the domestic market, but its absence will affect exports as other plants are forced to compensate.”
Another expert told Lube Report the one-month repair estimate was “realistic” but not certain. “They will pretend everything is fine, but fuel quality will drop sharply,” the expert said. “CDU-9 cannot fractionate crude as precisely as CDU-11 and has far less capacity. For aviation, this is critical – although Soviet-era engines can run on lower-quality fuel, their service life is reduced due to heavier deposits.”
Industrial lubricants supply is unlikely to face immediate shortages, the expert added, since Russia produces large volumes elsewhere. “If necessary, supplies will be diverted from other plants,” the source said, though metalworking enterprises could be asked to economize by recycling or extending oil life in service.
The Ryazan refinery – Rosneft’s largest among its Russian refinery assets – was also damaged, according to industry sources. The plant, which previously had a Group I base oil facility decommissioned in 2010 after Rosneft’s acquisition of the TNK-BP joint venture, has capacity to process over 17 million t/y of crude. Details of the current damage have not been disclosed, but the downtime adds to the pressure on Russia’s refining system.
Analysts note that Russia can cushion such shocks by drawing on more than 100 smaller, partly-loaded refineries, tapping large strategic reserves, and rerouting products. “Drone warheads are small and can’t fundamentally destroy large refining units – that would require hundreds of kilograms of explosives,” one analyst said. “Serious consequences are only likely if there are mass, simultaneous strikes on all major refineries.”
As a result of the reduced throughput at Novokuibyshevsk and Ryazan, Russia plans to increase exports from western ports to nearly 2 million b/d in August – about 200,000 b/d more than previously estimated and this could add downward pressure on the global oil market, Reuters reported, citing industry sources.
Ukraine has intermittently targeted Russian refining infrastructure since 2023, with strikes intensifying in late 2024 and early 2025 before a spring lull. Notable incidents since early 2024 include:
- Tuapse refinery (Krasnodar Krai) – Hit in January 2024, causing a weeks-long CDU outage.
- Ryazan refinery (Ryazan Oblast) – Damaged in February 2024, temporarily reducing gasoline output.
- Volgograd refinery (Volgograd Oblast) – Attacked in March 2024, with CDU damage and reduced diesel production.
- Novokuibyshevsk refinery (Samara Oblast) – Struck in March 2024, causing short-term operational disruption.
- Nizhnekamsk (Tatarstan) – Drone strike in December 2024 forced partial shutdown of primary units.
- Kstovo (Nizhny Novgorod Oblast) – Struck in February 2025, causing short-term cuts in processing.
- Novocherkassk small refinery (Rostov Oblast) – Damaged in multiple 2024 strikes, briefly halting output.
Three of these – Volgograd, Nizhnekamsk, and Novokuibyshevsk – are major base oil and lubricant production centers. While most attacks have caused short- to medium-term outages, the Aug. 2 incident marks the first time in 2025 that a large facility has been largely idled, underscoring the vulnerability of even heavily defended refineries.