New car and light commercial vehicle sales in Russia fell by 27% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 to 546,430 units, according to the Association of European Businesses. The decline reflects weak demand, high inflation, and shrinking consumer purchasing power, as Chinese brands continue to dominate a market reshaped by sanctions and the exit of Western automakers.
For the Russian lubricant market, the key impact is the surge in demand for Chinese-branded original equipment manufacturer lubricants.
The sustained decline in sales dates back to 2022, when Western sanctions following the invasion of Ukraine triggered a prolonged economic downturn. Soaring inflation, reduced access to imported components, tighter credit and government spending redirected toward the military have all contributed to shrinking demand for new vehicles.
June sales alone totaled 92,627 vehicles, down 29% year-on-year, according to figures from Russian analytics firm PPK. The AEB reported a nearly identical June total of 93,315 units.
PPK, or Passport Industrial Consulting, is a Russian industrial analytics firm that publishes monthly statistics on vehicle sales. While AEB figures are based on reports from automakers, PPK uses market monitoring, dealer data and registration records.
“The first half of 2025 ended with results that were anticipated and did not come as a surprise,” said Alexey Kalitsev, chairman of the AEB Automobile Manufacturers Committee, in the association’s July 3 news release. “The 27% market contraction vividly illustrates the difficult situation facing the industry.”
Despite the downturn, Kalitsev noted a shift in market structure, with locally assembled vehicles now accounting for 56% of sales, up from 45% a year earlier, thanks to the restart of production at previously idled plants.
“There are early signs of stabilization,” he added. “In June, sales were only slightly lower than in May, and we expect a potential turnaround in the market if government support continues.”
Since the departure of most Western automakers in 2022, Chinese brands have significantly expanded their presence in Russia. According to data from Avtomarketolog, Chinese manufacturers accounted for more than 60% of new vehicle sales at their peak in 2023. In the first half of 2025, that share declined slightly to around 55%, while Russian brands made up roughly 35% of the market.
This is driving up consumption of Chinese-branded OEM lubricants. OEM oils account for about 10% of Russia’s total automotive lubricant demand, which reached 1 million tons in 2024, according to B2X, a Moscow-based consultancy in the lubricants sector.
Demand for Chinese OEM lubricants nearly doubled year-on-year, rising from around 13,000 tons in 2023 to approximately 22,000 tons in 2024, B2X reported on its Telegram channel on Monday.
Local assembly has played a key role in maintaining Chinese dominance. Brands like Haval are now built in Russian facilities such as the plant in Tula. Vehicles assembled in-country now make up 56% of total sales, a notable increase from 45% in the same period last year.
Over the past three years, international brands have been almost entirely displaced by Chinese automakers. Russia imported more than 1 million Chinese vehicles in 2024, with Chinese carmakers capturing 63% of the total market, according to Moscow-based analytics firm Autostat.
Autostat’s latest report notes that in the first half of 2025, the share of sales of Chinese cars fell to 55%, while domestic vehicles accounted for 34.6%. Crossovers and SUVs continue to dominate, making up 67.4% of the market. Diesel vehicles reached a 95% share, while plug-in hybrids accounted for 2.4% and fully electric vehicles just 0.8%,” according to the firm’s latest report.
The AEB revised its full-year forecast downward and now expects 1.25 million new vehicles to be sold in 2025 – 24% fewer than in 2024.