The study, conducted by Moscow-based consultancy B2X, draws on internal databases including the firm’s propriety retail panel data, sectoral consumption research, mass-balance analysis, and data from Russia’s Central Dispatching Agency of the Fuel and Energy Complex (CDU TEK), Rosstat, and the Ministry of Economic Development, supplemented by expert interviews.

“Currently, state-backed efforts to ramp up defense output are driving enterprises to improve efficiency,” said Anatoly Filatkin, managing partner at B2X, during a presentation of the firm’s market study. “For lubricants, this means stricter quality demands and rising interest in premium products.”

The consultancy also found that passenger car lubricants made up 21% of the 1.05 million tons of automotive lubricants, while commercial vehicle lubricants accounted for 38%.

Industrial oil imports rose to 36,000 tons in 2024, a 4% increase from the previous year. Exports also grew, reaching 96,000 tons, up 6% year-on-year. “From the perspective of segment dynamics, we see healthy growth in these sectors. Machine-building, power generation, oil and gas extraction, and metallurgy remain the largest consumers of industrial lubricants,” Filatkin added.

Commenting on the greases segment, Tamara Kandelaki, head of InfoTek, another Moscow-based consultancy specializing in the petrochemical industry, said affordability continues to drive the market demand.

“Overall, the demand for greases stands at around 40,000 to 50,000 tons per year. The market is clearly moving in the direction of ‘the cheaper, the better.’ Domestic production is indeed growing,” she said. “It’s difficult to single out specific producers, but the most widely used grease remains Solidol.”

At another industry event last November, B2X reported that hydraulic oils continued to hold the largest share of industrial oil consumption, representing about 40% of total industrial oil demand. General-purpose industrial oils followed at 22%, and gear oils at 19%. Filatkin said at the time that the industrial oil and metalworking fluids (MWF) market remained stable, with industrial oil demand growing by 3% in 2023.

“In the MWF segment, demand remains strong in the machine-building and metalworking industries. Key consumers include enterprises in the automotive, metallurgy and machine tool sectors. Domestic production has expanded significantly, with Russian companies now supplying over 70% of the domestic MWF market,” Filatkin said. B2X forecasts the MWF market to exceed 130,000 tons by 2026, with an average annual growth of about 2%.

Analysts see growth in the coming years tied to renewed investment in the industrial sector, modernization of equipment, and the adoption of new technologies in machine-building. These factors are expected to drive further demand for high-quality industrial oils and MWFs, including domestically produced and import-substituting products.

At this week’s event, Filatkin advised lubricant sellers – both producers and distributors – to focus on several key areas for development. These are expanding a competitive product range with comprehensive solutions, investing in premium positioning and building customer trust, shifting from merely “selling a product” to offering “product plus service,” prioritizing not only lubricant quality but also the quality of the manufactured goods, and obtaining lubricant recommendations based on operational testing on customer equipment.

He also noted that “the dynamics of lubricant consumption are closely linked to the output of industrial production. Machine-building shows an outpacing growth in the machine tool segment, setting the stage for further MWF growth. However, the forecast for industrial oils in 2025 suggests no growth due to a slowdown in industrial production in the most oil-intensive sectors.”