Kline estimates that global demand for biolubricants is currently 400,000 metric tons per year, the firm’s industry manager for energy Anuj Kumar said March 19 at Lubricants Expo North America. The consulting firm, which is headquartered in Parsippany, New Jersey, United States, forecasts this amount to grow at a cumulative annual rate of 4% from 2023 through 2028 and then about 2.7% for the following five years.

The rates for both periods are several times higher than the growth rates Kline forecasts for overall finished lubricant demand – about 0.5% for the first five years and less than 0.2% for the second five years.

“Compared to mainstream lubes, their growth rate is phenomenal, but they are growing from a much smaller base,” Kumar said.

Kumar noted Kline’s definition for biolubricants: products with more than 25% carbon content derived from plant or animal sources; that are non-toxic to humans and the environment and that are non-bioaccumulative as defined by industry standards; and that biodegrade at least 60% within 28 days of exposure to the environment.

Demand for biolubricants is being driven by several related factors, Kumar said – environmental regulations, the sustainability movement, rising environmental awareness and endorsements by original equipment manufacturers. But they also have an important constraint that is likely to limit their ability to emerge from niche status: They cost significantly more than conventional lubricants.

Biolubricants cost more because they are produced on a much smaller scale than conventional products, whose demand is between 35 million and 40 million t/y. In Kline’s opinion, the companies producing biolubricants and their ingredients are not focused on scaling up production to achieve cost-competitiveness – partly because there are plenty of opportunities where end-users will pay premiums for the performance that biolubes provide.

Suppliers “are looking more for value as opposed to scale,” he said.