Looking back at the beginning of this year, a number of facts emerge that perhaps indicated the direction that EMEA base oil markets would adopt during the months to follow. In January 2025, crude oil prices were around $75 per barrel, with API Group I and Group II base oil numbers pitched higher than currently available in European and Middle Eastern markets. Demand however remained a negative throughout many parts of the regions, with major economies faltering, and many countries teetering on the brink of recession.

At that time, European, Middle Eastern and African Group III prices were under considerable pressure from two sides – the first being slow demand in Europe, and the second being a near glut of availabilities that had been building during the final months of 2024. This sector of the market had no awareness that things were about to change markedly.

Towards late spring, the number of cargoes arriving from Asia-Pacific and the Middle East Gulf dropped dramatically, causing markets to tighten until a number of customers were placed on allocation, awaiting the arrival of replenishment stocks. The interruptions to supplies were many faceted, but extended turnarounds in the Middle East Gulf, shipping problems from Asia-Pacific sources and continuing problems with Houthi rebels in the Red Sea all contributed to scarcity for available barrels of Group III base oils.

Following the completion of turnarounds and cargoes loading out of Korea and Malaysia, the situation began to ease, but weirdly at the same time, demand started to improve, perhaps driven by users not wishing to face further limited availabilities, as had happened during the summer months.

Group I base oil markets around The European, Middle Eastern and African regions were continually adjusting to new supply sources such as cargoes arriving from U.S. and Red Sea producers. Europe, for example, was becoming a net importer of Group I base oils, lacking any signs of a return to surplus barrels for export sales. This scenario to an extent supported Group I prices, which remained relatively high, maintaining a very acceptable price premium to distillates.

Meanwhile, looking back towards the start of 2025, Group II base oils were enjoying a relative boom time, with regions such as Middle East Gulf making positive moves to premium base oils in new formulations for updated specifications for finished lubricants.

European prices were almost insulated from other global markets, with Group II in Europe maintaining a large price differential over other regions, making this an attractive market for both domestic producers and importers.

Throughout the regions, what has been noticeable from comparisons is that base oil prices have been subjected to almost constant and continuing erosion, perhaps due, as some would argue, to crude and feedstock prices moving lower, with depressed global demand and production cutbacks.

This situation was about to be amended, with OPEC+ members changing tack and deciding to increase output levels to maximise revenues, which would support a number of economies which were becoming ever more dependent and reliant for revenue on crude oil sales.

Base oils became something of a pawn in the slates of many refiners, where demand was missing, and creating alternative export markets was nigh impossible. Competition washing added from alternative supply sources, coupled with global base oil availabilities moving higher due to opening of new production units in regions such as U.S., AsiaPac, and South America.

A number of unforeseen shutdowns occurred during 2025, with one large Group I refinery in northwestern France experiencing an extremely damaging fire which halted production of base oils for many weeks. In Hungary, later in the year, another accidental fire closed the MOL refinery, adding problems to obtaining available barrels to service contracted buyers. This refinery will only re-start supplies from Jan 5 ’26.

Some players commented at the time that without these fires and major refinery maintenance programs, Group I supplies within Europe would have gone long, causing further price pressure on numbers, or alternatively, forcing suppliers to cut prices to offer surplus barrels for export sales.

With the aide of imported Group I base oils, the European market managed to stay almost in balance, between slow demand and lower production quantities.

African and Middle Eastern base oil markets saw marked growth and a transition from reliance on Group I base stocks to premium grades. This trend is likely to continue, and may possible accelerate during the course of next year.

An interesting development started to occur during the latter months of 2025, that being the withdrawal of Russian producers from the international base oil markets, and a cessation to dumping of surplus barrels into areas such as Turkey, U.A.E. and West Africa. Supplies seemed to be targeted at Russian domestic markets, raising the possibility that Ukrainian drone and missile strikes on refineries and storage terminals had severely limited the production and availability of Russian base oils.

This situation is being monitored by this report and any significant moves from Russian sources will be noted in due course.

The Gaza ceasefire, and now the potential negotiated peace accord between Ukraine and Russia may add hope to base oil market resumption and expansion during next year, with traditional shipping voyage routes being reopened, and supply chains reappearing in original form.

There are more positives around the base oil markets in European, Middle Eastern and African than were seen during 2025, perhaps paving the way for new and exciting developments which are yet to be revealed.

Until then ….

Crude and Gas Oil Prices

Crude prices maintained their mini rally during the few trading days of last week and opened this week almost in line with those from a week earlier. Crude prices are still expected to drift weaker over the next few months.

Dated deliveries of Brent crude: $62.05/bbl, February front month
West Texas Intermediate: $58.15/bbl, February front month
European low-sulfur gas oil: $623 per metric ton, January front month

Source: London ICE trading late Monday, Dec. 29

Europe

Base oil business and trade has slowed as most players are absent from offices. Plants and offices in many European, Middle Eastern and African regions will not restart or reopen until next week at the earliest. There have been few updates to prices during last week, with the European scene maintained.

The latest news from Hungary is that Mol will definitely restart supplies from Jan. 5, this against a further potential setback in the form of an explosion in the crude supply pipeline serving the refinery. News is that the no interruption to crude and hence feedstock production will take place.

Bright stock around Europe remains tight, and prices reflect this availability. Bright stock maintains a substantial  premium over solvent neutral prices. Prices for solvent neutral grades are maintained this week.

Group I

Exports, FOB
SN150: $635/t-$675/t
SN500: $700/t-$725/t
Bright stock 150: $1,155/t-$1,195/t

Northwestern Europe, FCA Antwerp-Rotterdam-Amsterdam
SN150: $785/t-$810/t
SN500: $865/t-$900/t
Bright stock 150: $1,275/t-$1,325/t

Eastern Europe,  FCA
SN150: €773/t
SN500: €825/t
Bright stock: €1,134/t

Mediterranean, FCA (one “optimistic” supplier)
SN150: $835/t
SN600: $950/t
Bright stock: $1420/t

Pan-European, FOB/FCA basis
SN150: €625/t-€675/t
SN500/600: €700/t-€745/t
Bright stock 150: €1,085/t-€1,120/t

Pan-European prices are assessed on an aggregate basis from levels in Scandinavia, Poland, France, Germany, Benelux, Spain, Italy, Greece and the United Kingdom

The euro exchange rate to the U.S. dollar was $1.17870 Monday.

Group II prices are also unchanged at the new lower levels, following the issuance of price reviews from a major suppliers. The rest of the market has already fallen into line or is now doing so. Levels were circulated at $1,025/t for 150N and $1,200/t for 600N.

The EU duty of 3.7% for Group II imports from nations without free trade agreements will cease on Jan. 28.

Demand for Group II is difficult to read during the holiday time, but predictions are that January and February could see a pick up in demand. Prices are unchanged from last week.

Group II, FCA basis
110N: €800/t-€820/t
150N: €810- €825/t
220N: €835/t-€845/t
600N: €965/t-€1,020/t

Prices apply to a wide range of Group II base oils that can be sourced from within Europe, the U.S., the Red Sea and Asia-Pacific. Ranges refer to bulk shipments.

Group III base oils will continue to show healthy demand with new cargoes arriving from Middle East Gulf. Prices remain as per last week. Four 4 centiStoke remains prized and in demand, but 6 cSt and 8 cSt grades also show positive demand.

There are no further updates from suppliers regarding dates and plans for new production and additional barrels coming from Saudi Arabia and the U.S. Gulf of Mexico coast.

The Shell refinery conversion in Germany appears to be running on track, with further updates expected early next year.

Prices for Group III grades partial slates of finished lubricant approvals are unchanged.

Group III

Partly approved
4 cSt: €1,165/t-€1,190/t
6 cSt: €1,135/t-€1,155/t
8 cSt: €1,125/t-€1,145/t

Fully approved, FCA Antwerp-Rotterdam-Amsterdam, Northwestern Europe, Spain
4 cSt: €1,610/t-€1,625/t
6 cSt: €1,595/t-€1,620/t
8 cSt: €1,585/t-€1,610/t

All the above products sold on a delivered basis are subject to transportation charges, added to the prices above.

Rerefined Group III, FCA Germany
4 cSt:  €990/t
5 cSt : €990/t
6 cSt: €1.050/t

Baltic Sea

No reports, news or even rumors of any base oil exports from Baltic Sea ports such as St. Petersburg or Vyborg. No broker shipping reports show any vessels being required or inquired for exporting base oils to locations such as Turkey or West Africa.

From news received last week, there could only be one potential Russian cargo for Nigeria, but this cargo may have been stored and transmitted through an Egyptian port. Even then is it impossible to see how this trader could lay hands on a cargo-sized parcel of Russian grades for Nigeria.

This cargo, if Russian in origin, would not have loaded out of the Baltic, but may have been loaded out of a Sea of Azov port.

Assumptions are continuing that Russian refineries are directing base oil supplies to domestic markets.

Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries and storage terminals continue to have affected availabilities of base oils. Notional prices for Russian base oil exports through the Baltic remain as previously reported.

Group I

Russian exports, FOB St. Petersburg/Vyborg (unlikely since domestic prices are probably higher)
SN150: $625/t-$655/t
SN500: $660/t-$685/t.

Black Sea & Turkey

Not one Russian base oil cargo appears to have entered Turkey and landed material into storage. U.S. sanctions on Lukoil and Rosneft are having short- and long-term implications for base oil movements. The Lukoil companies registered outside Russia, for example in Germany, Slovakia, Bulgaria and Romania, may have to be sold off, causing widespread losses to the Lukoil parent company.

There is no point in reporting historical Rosneft or Lukoil prices for the Turkish market.

Tupras prices remain in place for December.

Spindle oil: Tl 32,090.00/t plus VAT Tl 8,315.44/t
SN150: Tl 27,764.00/t plus VAT Tl 7,450.24/t
SN500: Tl 34,443.00/t plus VAT Tl 8,786.04/t
Bright stock: Tl 51,258.00/t plus VAT Tl 12,149.04/t

Sales incur a standard loading charge of Tl 9,487.20/t.

Group II, ex-works from Turkish traders
110N and 220N, no current availabilities
350N : no offers
150N, ex Taiwan or Saudi Arabia: $955/t
500N/600N, ex Taiwan or Saudi Arabia: $1,185/t

Group III

Partly approved
Tatneft 4 cSt FCA: €933/t (availability in doubt)

Fully approved, from Spain, CIF Gemlik
€1,695/t-€1,725/t

Middle East

The turnaround at the Luberef refinery in Yanbu, Saudi Arabia, should wrap up within the next few days. The turnaround is partly preparatory work for the new production of Group III base oils.

Cargoes of around 18,000 tons continue to load out of Yanbu and Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, for receivers in Mumbai anchorage and Jawaharlal Nehru Port, with smaller cargoes of around 8,000 tons-10,000 tons moving Group I and Group II to receivers in United Arab Emirates.

Group I and Group II base oil cargoes are arriving into the UAE from the U.S., South Korea and Thailand. Some parcels are giving ETAs during first or second week of January, discharging into Fujairah and Hamriyah.

Problems continue for tankers berthing at Hamriyah, with sources confirming that delays of up to a week or ten days are not unusual. This is not limited to base oils but also pertains to other petroleum products and chemicals using the storage tanks located in Hamriyah port.  

No further Iranian base oil cargoes were reported during last week. 

Iranian Group I base oils have been confirmed as being transported by trucks, some going into Iraq, whilst some proceed to Kurdistan, and others deliver into Syria and Eastern Turkey. This business is conducted through a network of traders based throughout the regions, although none have been identified as yet.

Russian cargoes are missing from the UAE, with no cargoes sailing from Limas terminal in Turkey.

Imported prices into the UAE are maintained until the arrival of the cargoes from U.S. Gulf Coast, following which there may be revisions. Sources have advised that as soon as customs declarations are notified prices will be reported.

Group I, CIF/CFR UAE ports
SN150: $885/t-$920/t
SN500: $940/t-$965/t

Group I cargoes are being purchased from traders based in the U.S. and in Switzerland, but also directly from producers in Thailand.

Group II, FCA or RTW, UAE and Oman
110N, 150N and 220N: $1,285/t-$1,325/t
600N: $1,395/t-$1,420/t

Group II base oils are being imported into the UAE and other Middle East Gulf ports in Qatar and Bahrain from a number of  sources, in the Red Sea, the U.S., South Korea and Singapore and are being resold on an FCA basis in the UAE or on a truck-delivered basis in the UAE and Oman. The high ends of the ranges refer to material being delivered by RTW in the UAE and into northern Oman, north of Khorfakkan.

Group III, FCA Hamriyah or RTW, UAE and Oman
4 cSt: $1,225/t
6 cSt: $1,235/t
8 cSt: $1,255/t

Group III base oils produced in Al Ruwais, UAE, and Sitra, Bahrain, are delivered by sea into Hamriyah, Sharjah port and Jebel Ali in the UAE or on a truck-delivered basis in UAE and Oman. The ranges of Group III prices above include a reseller margin of $95/t covering storage, handling, insurance and a margin. RTW deliveries from distributors can incur a further charge of between $20/t-$55/t, depending on delivery location and quantity.

Netbacks for Group III base oils loaded ex Sitra and Al Ruwais for distributor sales in Europe, the U.S., India and China are unchanged at $1,065/t-$1,085/t for 4, 6 and 8 cSt grades. Netbacks for gas-to-liquids Group III+ base oils ex Ras Laffan, Qatar, remain at $1,085/t-$1,100/t. Levels are given as indications only since no distributors are involved in these cargoes and the product is mainly retained by Shell affiliates for in-house blending. Middle East Gulf Group III netbacks are assessed based on selling prices in known markets minus estimated marketing costs, margins, handling, storage and freight.

Africa

Prices remain published from a Spanish source, but few buyers will be expected to pay the rates being offered. The supplier apparently does not have large quantities of each grade, is indicating availabilities for SN150, SN600 and bright stock 150 without releasing quantities.

The latest large base oil cargo reported previously from Rotterdam and Fawley, U.K., has loaded for Durban, South Africa, and it is anticipated that another of around 19,000 tons will load this week, also for South Africa. Arrival dates are not yet confirmed by agents in Durban.

A trader who specialized in the past in procuring Russian cargoes, is reported to have a 10,000-ton cargo on the high seas for Apapa, but the origin remains a mystery. There are few, if any, sellers in Europe who would have availabilities to offer a substantial quantity to fit the cargo split of SN150, SN500 and SN900.

Another trader who also has a 10,000-ton parcel on the high seas is canvassing the Nigerian market with low prices, apparently without having the back-up of a physical supply. It appears that the trader gets interest from prospective receivers, then approaches suppliers to investigate if they can make numbers work for a cargo into Nigeria.

Prices in discussions are heard around $840/t for SN150, $ 900/t for SN500 and $1030/t for SN900

Three cargoes are now on the water for Nigeria: two 10,000-ton parcels sourced out of the U.S. and a large 18,000-ton cargo also ex U.S., all of which will tide the Nigerian market over during the busy time approaching. 

SN900 has a noticeable price differential over SN500, and some receivers are unwilling to purchase at those prices. The price differential between SN900 and SN500 will continue to be problematic until bright stock prices fall to levels that yield a price for blended SN900 more in the range of $50/t-$60/t higher than SN500.

Bid numbers from buyers are at $825/t for SN150, $900/t for SN500 and $1,030/t for SN900, all on the basis CFR Apapa.

The naira black market exchange rate for the Nigerian naira was NGN 1,450 to the dollar Monday.

Group I

Russian origin, CFR Apapa (may be available on one cargo)
SN150: $825/t
SN500: $895/t
SN900: $985/t

U.S. origin, CFR Apapa
SN150: $840/t
SN500: $900/t
SN900: $1030/t

Ray Masson is director of Pumacrown Ltd., a trader and broker of petroleum products in London, U.K. Contact him directly at pumacrown@email.com.

Lubes’n’Greases shall not be liable for commercial decisions based on the contents of this report.

Archived base oil price reports can be found through this link: https://www.lubesngreases.com/category/base-stocks/other/base-oil-pricing-report/

Historic and current base oil pricing data are available for purchase in Excel format.