Weekly EMEA Base Oil Price Report

There are a number of immediate concerns regarding the deal. The first is that Swiss authorities have received no communications regarding the signing of a treaty and as such cannot move to provide security and other elements required to host this event.

There are also questions about the substance of the agreement and its implications for peripheral issues. What happens to Israel, and how will Netanyahu react to Trump criticism about actions against Hezbollah in Lebanon and demands that Israel cease attacks there?

Another question is what will Trump do with the U.S. naval presence in the Gulf and the region. If the fleet is removed  and sails away, will Iran abide with the terms of the deal? If the U.S. navy remains, will this be seen as Trump extending pressure and influence over Iran?

There are too many questions to assume that this is the end of the Iranian war and that all will return to normal in Middle East Gulf regions or to know whether the Middle East remain the powder keg it has long been.

Crude and product prices have fallen on the back of the announcements, and if all holds together, then base oil numbers will come under downward pressure in coming days and weeks. Base oils may be slower to react, but having reached dizzying levels over the past 108 days since the war started, these highs are certainly going to be challenged by buyers around the globe.

Producers will be reticent to apply lower prices quickly, due to raw material costs having peaked over the past few months, and these feedstocks will have been used in producing current stocks.

Buyers will argue that refiners made large margins at the outset of the conflict with lower priced feedstocks and must be realistic when looking at lowering prices. As they say, what goes around comes around.

This week will give clear indications as to the course for base oil prices across all groups, even for API Group III levels within Europe, where the market is facing shortages and lack of supply for many users of these grades.

As reported previously, this situation in Europe has emerged due to loss of production from two major supply points in Middle East Gulf, Ras Laffan in Qatar, and Sitra in Bahrain. The production at Al Ruwais at one of the Adnoc refineries appears to have been spared damage, but the constraints imposed by the closure of Hormuz have meant no vessels and no possible cargo movements from this source.

The outlook appears to be more positive, and with Hormuz opening cargoes can enter, and even leave the Gulf after 108 days.

In the other conflict affecting base oil trade, Russia has sent a massive number of drones and missiles into Ukraine on Sunday 14th night, killing nineteen and injuring many more, most of whom were civilian casualties.

Kyiv has vowed to retaliate and will without doubt plan drone strikes on targets deep into Russian territory.

The Ukraine war is changing with many commentators pointing out that Putin is coming under pressure from within Russia, with high inflation, climbing interest rates and shortages of basic goods. There appears to be growing unrest from many quarters, although the Kremlin is playing such news down, and is maintaining a positive stance.

Sanctions are hitting Russians hard, and with the reports of another ‘shadow fleet’ tanker being interdicted by the United Kingdom authorities, reports are that Russian receipts from crude sales were down by almost 50% during May.

The altering scenario in Middle East and Ukraine may be seen as positive news for European and Middle East economies, with many countries emerging from a number of years of depressed economic activity.

At an industry function attended last week, the mood for the future of base oils and lubricants in general was buoyant, with positive vibes from producers, blenders, resellers and traders.

Most did admit that there will be short-term problems with supplies of some base oils, but with possible solutions being tested and examined from all sides, the future perhaps looks brighter than the past few months. 

Crude and Gas Oil Prices

With the news of an possible agreement between the U.S. and Iran to end the war, crude prices have fallen steeply during trading on Monday this week. Prices are well below the recent peaks reached a few weeks ago, perhaps starting to return to some form of normality following the Trump attacks on Iran and the resultant retaliatory strikes and counter attacks.

Forecasts are now calling crude prices lower going forward over the summer months and into the second half of this year. Players are still tentative regarding the situation in the Gulf, but with positive statements being issued from U.S., Iranian and GCC sources today, the mood has altered to one of hope. Brent crude oil values fell around $11 per barrel the past week, and European prices for low-sulfur gas oil dropped below $1,000 per metric ton for the first time since March 2.

Dated deliveries of Brent crude: $83.30/bbl, August front month
West Texas Intermediate: $80.60/bbl, July front month
European low-sulfur gas oil: $932/t, July front month.

These prices were obtained from London ICE trading late Monday June 15.

Europe

Group l base oil availabilities are improving and with demand remaining reasonable going into the summer period, prices were holding up, but with the news early this week of a tentative end to hostilities between Iran and the U.S., crude and feedstock prices have fallen, hence this can be expected to be transferred to base oil numbers in the days and weeks to come.

Talking to sources early this week, almost all buyers are determined not to purchase quantities of Group l base oils until the picture becomes clearer, with pressure for sellers to lower prices coming largely from buyers’ reticence to purchase on a prompt basis.

It may take a few days, but the new crude oil values will exert significant downward pressure on base oils. On Monday sources reported offers down by $300/t-$500/t from numbers shown last week.

Buyers are quoting diesel price levels, commenting that the premium Group l base oils previously had above diesel price levels should now be re-established sooner rather than later. The premium varied between $100/t-$400/t, depending on region and grade of Group l base oil. For example, bright stock often carried a premium of more than $500/t due to being tight in availability.

Producers are between a rock and a hard place, with high value feedstock stocks having been utilised to produce Group l base oils over the last couple of months, and now with a potentially ‘collapsing’ market, it may be difficult to reconcile raw material costs versus current selling prices. 

Buyers’ defense is that producers sold base oils from storage at higher prices immediately following the surge in crude and feedstock prices at the start of the war, and now there has to be a balancing act where selling prices will have to move lower.

Buyers are citing the fact that base oil numbers climbed to current levels quickly when diesel prices moved above $1500/t, and now with feedstock levels falling back to levels well below $1000/t.

A number of blenders have indicated being offered lower prices early this week, versus numbers offered previously.

The moves now will be for blenders to take account of new base oil prices in setting finished lubricant levels, but this may take some time to rebalance.

Export sales will still remain elusive with available European barrel of Group l base oils being taken up to fulfil orders  which have been postponed and delayed.

it will be interesting to see if European Group l imports continue on the same scale, with sellers currently offering FCA availabilities recently arrived from Saudi Arabia.

One major continues to send large cargoes to affiliated companies in Singapore and South Africa, and whilst these large cargoes may strictly be described as European exports, they are being sent to affiliates, whilst at the same time are rebalancing global availabilities.

Prices are placed in exceptionally wide ranges due to reactions from a number of sellers. Some major suppliers are maintaining high ‘posted’ prices, but are offering discounted net prices to a number of buyers. The high ‘postings’ may possibly be reviewed during this week.

Group l

European exports, FOB
No current prices

Northwestern Europe, FCA basis Antwerp-Rotterdam-Amsterdam
SN150: $1,870/t-$2,200/t
SN500: $1,900/t-$2,350/t
Bright stock 150: $2,150/t-$2,580/t

Eastern Europe, basis FCA
SN150: $2,285/t-$2,355/t
SN500: $2,440/t-$2,530/t
Bright stock 150: $2,625/t-$2,700/t

Mediterranean, FCA Spain, Greece, Italy
SN150: $2,340/t
SN600/500: $2,465/t
Bright stock: No availabilities, but prices may be offered for future available barrels.

Pan-European, FOB/FCA
SN150: €1,720/t-€1,857/t
SN500/600: €1,785/t-€2,180/t
Bright stock 150: €2,200/t-€2,390/t

Pan-European prices are assessed on an aggregate basis taking prices from Scandinavia, Poland, France, Germany, Benelux, Spain, Italy, Greece, U.K., and Baltic States.

The euro’s exchange rate with the U.S. dollar was $1.16007 Monday.

European Group II base oil prices have remained elevated, but with no advised increases last week, and potentially steep discounting to be applied if crude and feedstock values remain lower.

Buyers are claiming that levels should be brought into line with an acceptable premium over diesel, which has fallen back in early trading this week.

Prices are taken lower, but the market is braced for some fundamental changes during the course of the next few weeks. Price levels are recoded at levels seen during last week at around $2,830/t in respect of the 150N grade, with 600N at $2,945/t. Prices are on the basis of FCA sales Antwerp-Rotterdam-Amsterdam but are quoted on a ‘posted’ basis and may have been subject to discounts and total volume allowances.

Availability of Group II base stocks is good and described as adequate, with imports having arrived into supply hubs from U.S. sources, and with European local production running without any problems, the market looks to be covered.

European local production will see an increase in availabilities Group II base oils later this year, as PKN Orlen finalize preparations its refinery in Gdansk, Poland. The initial nameplate capacity for this facility was to be around 400,000 tons per annum, but initial quantities may be lower.

Supplies of Group II base oils are arriving from Saudi Arabia with cargoes from Yanbu. With the European market traditionally having typically higher prices than alternative markets such as India and South Africa, there is an appeal to producers to target the European market.

Prices are maintained at  last week’s levels, but changes may not be far away, with price pressure building with lower crude and feedstock values. Levels were heard at around €2,425/t-€2,570/t in respect of the 100N and 150N grades, with 600N between €2,550/t-€2,680/t, but levels will now be open to negotiations over the coming weeks.

Group II, FCA basis
110N: €2,470/t-€2,610/t
150N: €2,475- €2,620/t
220N: €2,445/t-€2,510/t
600N: €2,600/t-€2,720/t

These prices apply to a wide range of Group II base oils that may be sourced from within Europe or imported from the U.S., the Red Sea and Asia-Pacific.

European Group III markets hare becoming something of an enigma, since with the Strait of Hormuz perhaps re-opening there is the potential for Group III base oils to move from United Arab Emirates. But, and there is a big but, accessing vessels, arranging berthing, and finally sailing a cargo to Antwerp-Rotterdam-Amsterdam could take months to accomplish. The news may be positive, but the logistics and process still remain a total nightmare. It is too early to make a call on looking to move material from Al Ruwais, with shipping a major issue which will not be solved any time soon.

No Group III base oils will be arriving from Sita in Bahrian or from Ras Laffan in Qatar, due to damage to the facilities at those refineries.

Alternative routes to getting Group III base oils out of the Gulf are being investigated but these routes are taken up with other materials moving out, and availability for containers and space remains at a premium.

European buyers are vainly searching for alternative suppliers of Group III base oils, but established suppliers who will have stocks of Group III have their own portfolio of customers, many of whom have purchased Group III base oils from the same supplier for many years.

Fully-approved Group III cargoes have loaded out of Cartagena, Spain, with the last vessel due in Antwerp to discharge into hub storage. A further ship has loaded during last week and will arrive in Antwerp towards the end of June or early July.

This source has potential to cover at least some of the missing barrels which would have come in from Middle East Gulf, but cannot cover all requirements.

The facility in Cartagena, having delayed planned maintenance earlier this Spring, will go into turnaround, possibly in late summer, for the planned work to be completed. It is not known how long production will be out, but this refiner has vast experience and will cover requirements at the time. It was suggested today that the turnaround could take around twenty days.

Prices for Group III oils with partial slates of finished lubricant approvals are unchanged at last week’s levels, but with imminent shortages and falling raw material costs the future market prices are difficult to assess. Prices are therefore held at existing known levels for the time being with further information being sought during this week.

Group III

Partly approved, FCA Antwerp-Rotterdam-Amsterdam, Northwestern Europe
4 cSt: €3,350/t-€3,400/t
6 cSt: €3,345/t-€3,395/t
8 cSt: €3,150/t-€3,250/t

Fully approved, FCA Antwerp-Rotterdam-Amsterdam, Spain
4 cSt: €3,375/t-€3,425/t
6 cSt: €3,365/t-€3,420/t
8 cSt: €3,400/t-€3,450/t

All the above products sold on a delivered basis will be subject to transportation charges, added to the prices above.

Rerefined Group III prices are unchanged. Sellers are holding back from offering extra quantities of these grades, with buyers receiving allocated quantities based on historical purchases. New production from one re-refiner will not come on-stream until September at the earliest.

Rerefined Group III, FCA Germany
4 cSt: €3,050/t
5 cSt: €3,040/t
6 cSt: €3,040/t

Baltic Sea

Russian domestic base oil prices had risen again during lat week, but it will be interesting to see what happens to Russian domestic base oil prices now that crude and product prices are coming under pressure.

There are no reports of Russian bulk base oil cargoes loading or leaving Baltic ports, and with Ukrainian strikes on facilities at St. Petersburg terminal there may be damaged lines, although base oils are not typically loaded out of Primorsk or Ust-Luga, these terminals have been targeted by Ukrainian drones, and with damage also to a naval base in St. Petersburg, pressure is building on any cargo movements out of the Baltic. Hence it is not likely that any base oil cargoes will be moving out of the region any time soon.

Rumors heard around the market were also suggesting that trains taking base oils from refineries to shore terminals were delayed and were slow to discharge due to precautions against Ukrainian drone attacks. It was noted that a number of trains had come under attack from Ukrainian drones. Trains carried all petroleum products including base oils to Baltic load ports.

Black Sea & Turkey

A cargo has been noted loading out of South Korea for receivers in Turkey. It is thought that this cargo will comprise of Group II base oils and may be sourced from GS Caltex in Korea. The size of the cargo is not defined, since the parcel is loaded on a large vessel carrying a number of parcels for receivers en route.

It will be fascinating to see if the vessel transits the Bab-al-Mandeb Strait in the southern Red Sea, where Houthis have been active of late.

Base oil supplies from Iran have been stopped due to the war, and no Russian base oils are available for import into Turkish buyers.

The Turkish market is extremely short of base oils and the ending of hostilities between U.S. and Iran may be of significance to Turkish importers.

Blenders in Turkey are looking to Azeri and Uzbek sources, but logistics are difficult and expensive, and the full range of Group l grades is not available, with heavier solvent neutrals missing from the Uzbek slate.

Turkish blenders continue to purchase Group l base oils from AMOC and APC in Alexandria Turkish buyers are also looking to Algeria to see if they can source barrels from Sonatrach. Is it not known if this will be Algerian produced material or whether supplies may be considered from Augusta in Sicily.

The product from Augusta holds REACH status, whilst the material produced in Algeria does not have this approval.

Turkish buyers continue to look at sharing bright stock cargoes with EGPC in Alexandria. This material would be supplied from Yanbu, but it is considered that EGPC would be reticent and unwilling to share cargoes and vessels with third parties.

However, the cargoes are delivered by Luberef on a CIF basis, here since the charterers of the vessel would be the Saudis, this may provide scope for such an exercise.

Group I, ex rack Izmir refinery
Spindle oil: Tl 77,857.00/t plus, KDV Tl 18,511.30/t
SN150: Tl 76,676.00/t plus, KDV Tl 17,364.50/t
SN500: Tl 78,411.00/t plus, KDV Tl 17,711.50/t
Bright stock: Tl 94,765.00/t, plus KDV Tl 20,982.30/t

Sales incur a standard loading charge of Tl 10,146.50/t and should be added to the prices above.

Traders in Turkey have advised no sale offers will be forthcoming for Group II, although with a cargo from GSC on the way, this report will continue to request offers.

Traders/blenders will probably use this material to blend locally, selling the finished lubricants at current high prices, with revenue generated being required to finance replenishment barrels for example from Korea, to continue blending finished lubes for the Turkish and surrounding markets, such as Ukraine, Greece. and North Africa.

Group III

Partly approved
Tatneft 4 centiStoke FCA: no avails.

There have been no Turkish imports of Russian base oils, including Group III, for months, due to Russian domestic demand.

Fully-approved Group III from Cartagena, Spain, is no longer entering the Turkish market through Gemlik. This business may be resumed in future.

Middle East

Cargoes loaded from Yanbu during May have arrived in Antwerp-Rotterdam-Amsterdam, with one cargo loaded around mid May and a further two parcels loaded at end May.

An exceptionally large cargo has loaded for Fujairah and following part-cargo discharge, the vessel will sail onward to discharge the remaining cargo in Mumbai anchorage. The cargo size was unconfirmed by reports are that the vessel chartered would carry around 30,000 tons in total. Usual quantities moving into Fujairah are around 10,000 tons.

Draft for this vessel to discharge is not a problem with adequate water to accept the discharge of around 10,000 tons of Group II base oils. Thereafter the vessel will sail to Mumbai t discharge a further 18.7,000 tons of Group III grades.

Where to start this week is obviously difficult, since with the likelihood that an agreement will be signed this Friday between U.S. and Iranian representatives under the brokerage of Pakistan will change the whole picture in the Gulf.

The proposal is for a sixty day ceasefire, during which the finer details of a peace plan will be established between the two sides. This process will include the complete re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz to merchant marine traffic, but at the last moments today, Iran has managed to insert a clause in the agreement that following the sixty day ceasefire the strait will come under the control of Iran and Oman, with fees/tolls being paid to cover insurances, marine conservation and navigation. These tolls will be paid to Iran.

This clause has seemingly been accepted by U.S. negotiator

The two vessel owners/operators approached a couple of weeks ago have confirmed that they are ready and willing to make the transit through Hormuz and to make passage to Hamriyah to discharge the cargoes on board. Hw long this will take is anyone’s guess, since berthing with be at a premium, with many ships attempting to discharge bulk cargoes using the same limited number of berths.

Companies operating in U.A.E. no longer with any cash flow are appealing to government and banks to provide extended facilities to be able to await the arrival and discharge of cargoes after Hormuz re-opens. The problems being incurred are that timescale is impossible to calculate, and banks are denying access to funds until discharge dates are confirmed by agents.

Base oil prices in U.A.E. spiked during the early days of the war, but with no product left in storage, there are no reported FCA sales or prices.

Even if cargoes are discharged into shore storage, assessing prices to be set on these supplies remains vague, with some companies stating that they are having to pay demurrage charges to vessel owners prior to the cargoes being discharged.

These sums are not insignificant with one U.A.E. source advising that they may have to remit around $1.4 million before the cargo can be discharged into tank. The value of the cargo is assessed at around $11.4 million, so demurrage is an unwelcome addition.

Supplies of Group II which was in storage are gone with prices suspended until new cargoes can be discharged. Small quantities are arriving by truck and rail from Fujairah, but are not being resold, and are being used in blending to produce small quantities of finished lubricants for local markets, including contracts for military and civil government.

Group III base oils, FCA Hamriyah/Sharjah port, or delivered by RTW in U.A.E. and Oman, are available from Adnoc at Al Ruwais. Quantities are not large, but further difficulties have been in finding other base oils to blend with Group III, and also accessing supplies of the correct additives.

Thus demand is slow and prices are not yet confirmed.

The distributor in U.A.E. had temporarily closed, and has recently re-opened operations, but sales are extremely slow due to the above reasons, and trade will only resume to normal following the re-opening of Hormuz, when other base oils and additives can be made available.

Prices are suspended for the moment. Netbacks for Group III base oils ex Al Ruwais, Sitra and Ras Laffan are suspended for the time being.

Africa

A further Group l cargo of some 6,000 tons in total has arrived from USG and has discharged in Mohammedia, near Casablanca, Morocco. This is the second cargo which has been arranged possibly though a U.S. trader.

The large cargo of Group II base oils that recently loaded out of U.S. Gulf Coast for receivers in Durban arrived. The vessel is discharging part-cargo, before proceeding to the west coast of India to discharge the balance of the parcel. The cargo is for a major supplier of Group II base oils, with the vessel loading the cargo from Pascagoula.

A further large composite base oil cargo has loaded out of Rotterdam and Fawley for a major, supplying distributors and affiliated companies in South Africa. The vessel will discharge in Durban during second half July.

The supply to Ghana, Guinea and Cote d’Ivoire has been completed from agents news, although the last port Conakry has yet to confirm all completed.

This cargo has been mis-reported again, with another base oil publication stating that the cargo was going into Nigeria. This is categorically not the case, with the vessel calling at three ports under the contracted supply of Group l base stocks.

There is no new activity from Nigeria, and having briefly talked last week with a trader who had recently visited Lagos, it would appear that there is very little appetite for looking at new possible cargoes entering Apapa. 

No further cargoes will be supplied into Nigeria for some time, with receivers facing purchasing base oils at three times the prices paid for the last to cargoes to arrive.

One reason for no further cargoes going into Nigeria is that buyers are not prepared or ready to accept high prices which would now have to be paid for future cargoes.

One source in Nigeria has said this week that prices will revert now to former levels, and there will be scope to purchase base oil cargoes as previously conducted, and that the price hikes caused by the Iranian war will disappear with prices returning to former levels.

Not sure what sort of crack this source was on, but it must be good!

Trading in Nigeria has become more risky, and would now involve large financial exposure to unsecured debt.

There are no avails of any large parcels of Group l available either in Europe or from U.S. Hence there are many good reasons to be avoiding doing business in Nigeria right now

Dollar exposure, the risk of buyers back trading. Demurrage going unpaid, the list of reasons not to trade in Nigeria is endless.

The Nigerian naira exchange rate is NGN 1,361 to the dollar, as of 15th June 2026.

No new offers have been made, nor will be made. For the sake of historical value, cargoes which arrived into Apapa, sold at prices valid prior to the Iranian war. Levels were around the following numbers.

Group I, FCA Apapa
SN150: $885/t
SN500: $925/t
SN900: $1,035/t

Ray Masson is director of Pumacrown Ltd., a trader and broker of petroleum products in London, U.K. Contact him directly at pumacrown@email.com.

Lubes’n’Greases shall not be liable for commercial decisions based on the contents of this report.

Historic and current base oil pricing data are available for purchase in Excel format.