The Iran conflict continues into a second month, and with Donald Trump issuing ultimatum after ultimatum to the Iranian authorities, the world awaits to see what progress will be made following the strikes and damage caused not only to Iranian assets, but also to neighboring countries’ infrastructure, in retribution for allies hosting U.S. bases.
Late on Monday 6th April, the White House announced that negotiations are currently taking place to end the hostilities, with Trump adding that whilst proposed terms are not sufficiently acceptable, progress is being made towards a ceasefire and perhaps a more permanent solution for the region.
Following the shooting down of an American fighter jet over Iran, a dramatic rescue of one U.S. airman took place over the weekend, avoiding what could have been a tipping point in the war, had the iRGC managed to capture the WSO.
The bottom line and critical factor as far as trade and commerce within the Middle East Gulf are concerned is that the Strait of Hormuz remains closed to seagoing traffic.
Base oil blending operations in Middle East Gulf have been dialled down with some blenders all but ceasing to carry on normal business. A number of companies contacted last week, intimated that they were running out of stocks of base oil, additives, and packaging, and with no prospect of being able to move finished lubricants out of storage, warehouses are full, and with no containers available to load and send to receivers outside the Gulf.
Companies’ cash flows have been shredded, with revenue not circulating and everyday banking becoming virtually impossible due to restrictions for movement of people and goods. Transport is being hindered and curbed due to Iranian drone and missile strikes continuing in U.A.E. and Kuwait.
A number of sources have said that they potentially have bulk cargoes of base stocks sitting outside the mouth of Hormuz, but so far with little opportunity to access these replenishment stocks. Some base oil cargoes have been diverted to alternative ports in India and Pakistan, and with a number of vessels opting not to remain at anchorage, base oil cargoes have been rerouted to East and South African receivers.
Operations have been complex and time consuming, with trader owned cargoes of base oil having to be paid according to contracted T&Cs negotiated at time of purchase. Receivers in Middle East Gulf have had to lay hands on funds to cover letters of credit, without being able to access the goods to regenerate working capital.
Sources contacted said that local banks in Middle East Gulf had been extremely flexible in their approach to the current problems, but that with no time line in sight, nerves were beginning to vary around some of the deals which have had to be taken apart and put back together.
Another problem could be looming, with charges and costs for demurrage incurred on vessels waiting at anchorage. These amounts will not be insignificant, for example a 10,000 tons dwt tanker will be costing a daily rate of around $15k.
Economics and logistics dictate that vessels cannot remain at anchorage indefinitely, with a number of ships already holding for more than five weeks, waiting and hoping for Hormuz to reopen.
More global effects of the closure of the Strait are piling up, with a number of countries initiating fuel rationing, with economies such as India and Sri Lanka which are dependent on LPG for cooking, heating and ventilation, starting to really feeling the pinch with shortages of gas being reported every day.
Western nations have not been excluded from the painful rises in energy prices, with wholesale gas prices back to levels not seen since Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. Rises in fuel prices for airlines and everyday transportation of goods and services are starting to push inflation higher, and with no end in focus, the problems will continue to mount for a number of months to come.
That conflict between Ukraine and Russia also continues with Ukraine hitting a number of key energy targets such as a Lukoil refinery in the Leningrad region. This refinery does not produce base oils, hence is only affecting availabilities of fuels to the domestic and export markets. Kyiv has also damaged a pipeline near Primorsk which will affect exports of diesel and jet fuel from that region.
European countries are trying to collectively exert pressure on Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but starting from a number of weak positions, success in this matter is not considered to be forthcoming.
Crude and Gas Oil Prices
Crude oil and petroleum products continue to show higher levels, which were implemented at the end of February when Israel and the U.S. attacked Iranian targets.
The one feature which has altered crude pricing in that during last week, West Texas Intermediate crude was seen to leapfrog dated deliveries of Brent crude in posted prices.
West Texas Intermediate crude crude is trading higher than dated deliveries of Brent crude due to a severe supply shock driven by the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz causing intense demand for immediate, physical U.S. oil barrels. This reversal, known as a “premium,” is fuelled by intense backwardation, where near-term supply is more valuable than future supply, amid concerns over Middle East stability undercurrents.
The crack was reversed and now stands at around $3 per barrel, with West Texas Intermediate crude moving to around $112.
All crude and product forecasts which were prepared towards the end of 2025, have been scrapped with various agencies drawing up new proposals for 2026. Gone are the calls for lower crude prices, and as the Middle East picture unfolds, forecasts and predictions will be updating on an hourly basis, rather than monthly or quarterly.
Dated deliveries of Brent: $109.30/bbl, June front month
West Texas Intermediate: $112.05/bbl, May front month
European low-sulfur gas oil: $1,517/t, April front month
Source: London ICE late pm, Monday 06th April 2026.
Europe
API Group I base oil in Europe has gone extremely tight, but whether this is a genuine repost to demand rising quickly on the back of price increases, or whether sellers are holding back supplies in the belief that prices will move higher.
Prices have correlated with diesel prices which leapt to over $1,500/t, with the result that Group I base oil prices can realistically be expected to pitch around $150/t-$200/t higher, thus pushing available barrels to the limits.
Prices remain in wide range however, with some sellers housing commitments to contracted and regular buyers, by increasing marginally over diesel levels. Others have seized the opportunity to hike numbers to levels commensurate with a premium over diesel.
Group I is certainly short around Europe, with one refiner announcing to all customers that they would be prioritising distillate production and would effectively be ceasing supplies of all Group I base oils from Gdansk refinery until further notice.
Inquiries abound in the market, with buyers looking to access product which can be used to maintain operations in blending plants. Many are complaining that they do not have enough stock to produce finished lubricants to meet orders which have been in place for some months.
Uncertainty and the unknown rules are paramount in the European Group I markets, and this situation is called to continue as long as the Iranian war continues.
European price levels are moving upwards all the time with some sellers looking at replacement costs as a guide to selling levels, whilst others are looking at premiums over distillate fuels as a guide to pricing. The past month has created a market in which ill feeling is being dispensed by aggrieved buyers unable to purchase requirements, even at exorbitant levels being called by sellers.
There are no possibilities for any export deals to be structured at this time, with scarcely enough product to supply demand in local and regional markets
Group I
Exports from Europe, FOB
Prices unavailable
Northwestern Europe, FCA Antwerp-Rotterdam-Amsterdam
SN150: $1,740/t-$1,800/t
SN500: $1,820/t-$1,865/t
Bright stock 150: $2,100/t-$2,295/t
Eastern Europe, FCA
No prices available either from Orlen or MOL
Mediterranean, FCA Spain
SN150: $1,700/t
SN600/500: $1,755/t
Bright stock: $2,100/t
Pan-European, FOB/FCA
SN150: €1,670/t-€1,725/t
SN500/600: €1,765/t-€1,795/t
Bright stock 150: €2,030/t-€2,075/t
Pan-European prices are assessed on an aggregate basis taking prices from Scandinavia, Poland, France, Germany, Benelux, Spain, Italy, Greece, the United Kingdom, and Baltic States.
The euro exchange rate to the U.S. dollar was $1.15463 Monday.
European Group II base oil prices are higher with suppliers applying further large increases during last week. Feedstocks have risen dramatically even against levels seen ten days ago. Selling prices are being kept under review, and with crude price starting t gravitate around current levels, the large spike in distillate prices may have taken place and the markets may start to see a levelling out on prices.
Increases of between a further $100/t-$180/t were instigated during last week. Upward pressures may start to lessen, but levels are still subject to change and with continuing short validities on any offered prices. Buyers are hoping that some chinks of light may be appearing on the topic of a ceasefire and that the Strait of Hormuz might reopen.
Levels are now around $1,820/t-$1,875/t for 150 neutral and $1,895/t-$1,945/t for 600N.
Group II, FCA basis
110N: €1,765/t-€1,795/t
150N: €1,775- €1,810/t
220N: €1,725/t-€1,755/t
600N: €1,825/t-€1,900/t
Prices refer to a wide range of Group II base oils which may be sourced from within Europe, U.S., Red Sea and Asia-Pacific.
European Group III markets are being faced with real problems for the supply of replenishment barrels with all three Middle East Gulf sources wiped out for the foreseeable future. AsiaPac and domestically produced barrels of fully approved grades may be all that will be available for the foreseeable future.
There are a couple of cargoes on the high seas which managed to escape Hormuz before Iran closed the Strait, so availabilities will be around for the coming months, but following those cargoes arriving in the next few weeks, uncertainty exists for distributors and customers alike.
Second hand news from Middle East Gulf sources suggests that the Pearl project in Qatar may take up to one year to be able to resume production of GTL Group III+ base oils, and reports from Sitra indicate at least six months before feedstock trains can be back in production.
No news has been received or heard from Al Ruwais in U.A.E., and one can only assume that no news is not good news.
All three sources in Middle East Gulf have lost production as a result of Iranian strikes on refineries. All have suspended supplies. Fires started at the refineries in Qatar, Bahrain, and U.A.E., causing damage which has not been specified by any of the operating companies.
Group III base oil supplies from Cartagena in Spain may be affected by the start of maintenance which will commence in April and will run for about eight weeks. The producer has taken precautions to cover the turnaround period and has fully restocked the northwestern European hub.
There were reports last week that Resol could have supply issues with Group III base oils coming out of joint venture in Cartagena with SK Enmove, but further details were not forthcoming. Information will be sought this week.
Prices have risen fast for the fully-approved material in the light of the current situation and also taking account of the future supply situation.
European Group III prices are moved higher, with future shortages forecast for the Europe markets given the breakdown in availability and supply chains from Middle East Gulf sources.
One source commented that partly-approved 4 centiStoke product could soon be at €2,000/t FCA, this source has been proved correct.
Group III
Partly approved, FCA Antwerp-Rotterdam-Amsterdam, Northwestern Europe
4 cSt: €1,885/t/t-€1,940/t
6 cSt: €1,895/t-€1,950/t
8 cSt: €1,875/t-€1,895/t
Fully-approved prices FCA from hubs in Antwerp-Rotterdam-Amsterdam, northwestern Europe, and Spain are maintained at the new higher levels :
Basis FCA northwestern European hub :
4 centiStoke: €2,300/t/t-€2,350/t
6 cSt: €2,310/t/t-€2,360/t
8 cSt: €2,295/t/t-€2,335/t
All the above products sold on a delivered basis will be subject to transportation charges, added to the prices above.
Re-refined Group III prices are raised, these availabilities becoming crucial for the European Group III market.
4 centiStoke : €1,825/t
5cst : €1,825/t
6 cSt: €1,845/t
basis FCA Germany.
Baltic Sea
There have been further reports of Ukrainian drone strikes on prime Russian storage terminals snd refineries, with one refinery in Leningrad region being targeted. This refinery belonging to Lukoil, does not produce base oils.
Russian domestic markets appear to be soaking up most if not all base oil being produced, with reported rises in prices for the local markets, but factual information is now almost impossible to receive from sources who are no longer available.
The whole Russian base oil market has altered from one where European buyers played a major part in taking material from Gazprom, Lukoil, Rosneft and Basneft. These sales were achieved either through direct sales, or through traders who used the Baltic ports of Riga, Liepaja and Klaipeda to load and export cargoes prior to the Ukraine illegal invasion.
Although not specifically aimed at base oils, the U.K. government has announced that it will intercept Russian ‘shadow fleet’ vessels passing through U.K. waters.
No bulk exports of Russian base oils have been reported leaving Baltic supply points, St Petersburg, Vyborg or Primorsk.
Black Sea & Turkey
Rising crude prices are having a negative affect on the Turkish economy, but exports of refined products are being aimed at European markets, where potential shortages of diesel and jest fuel will start to have effects in the coming months, should Hormuz remain closed.
These exports will generate valuable dollars for Turkey.
It may be possible for Tupras at Izmir to accept crude cargoes which would load out of Yanbu and sail north through Suez. A pipeline option to take crude across Saudi Arabia from Al Jubail in Middle East Gulf to Yanbu in the Red Sea is being investigated.
Turkish blenders had been purchasing Group I base stocks from AMOC and APC in Alexandria, with Luberef also supplying Group I and Group II base stocks to Gebze, Turkey,. These supplies will have been paused with rising prices taking tolls on Turkish blenders and traders, with a traditional shortage of access to foreign currencies, the added value will have made base oil purchasing nigh impossible for many companies.
Turkish traders/belnders have taken delivery of a cargo of Group II grades from Taiwan, this cargo having passed through the Red Sea and Suez.
Reports of a cargo loading out of Turkey, with Group I base oils going into to Indian receivers, had the vessel going through Suez, proceeding through the Red Sea, and the Strait of Bab-al-Mandeb where the Houthis are threatening U.S. allied vessels.
Turkish domestic prices from Tupras have been lifted again, this becoming a regular weekly occurrence.…
Spindle oil: Tl 51,056.00/t plus, KDV Tl 12,240.50/t
SN150: Tl 47,579.00/t plus, KDV Tl 11,545.10/t
SN500: Tl 53,819.00/t plus, KDV Tl 12,793.10
Bright stock: Tl 70,217.00/t, plus KDV Tl 16,072.70/t
Sales incur a standard loading charge of Tl 10,146.50/t which remains unchanged and should be added to the prices above.
Traders in Turkey have advised no availabilities due to the volatility of prices, with traders accepting cargoes now, for example to parcel from Taiwan, which will have been purchased at pre Iran war rates, and it will interesting to see what level are offered to potential buyers, perhaps later this week.
Group II, ex-works :
110N and 220N, no current offers.
350N : not from Taiwan
150N : unavailable. ( no Russian product )
later this week, or early next week.
500N/600N, ex Taiwan or Saudi Arabia : Prices to be offered during this week.
Partly-approved Group III prices:
Tatneft 4 centiStoke FCA: no avails.
Fully-approved Group III from Cartagena, Spain, CIF Gemlik in small lots of 800mt-1200 mt per cargo were being supplied by Repsol into receivers in Gemlik. It is not confirmed if these cargoes are continuing due to reported issues with supplies out of Cartagena and also in the face of price rises which may make eventual finished lubricants uncompetitive in the Turkish market.
Estimated last prices : €2,410/t/t-€2,465/t.
Middle East
Red Sea
The Samref refinery in Yanbu was hit by Iranian missiles, although damage was limited with no injuries or fatalities. Base oil production was not affected. Two smaller cargoes, for EGPC in Alexandria, and another for receivers in Aqaba loaded during first half of March.
Meanwhile Saudi Aramco is investigating using a pipeline link from Al Jubail in the East part of the Kingdom, to pump crude across to Yanbu where it could be loaded, thus avoiding the closure of Hormuz. Cargoes moving south would have t run the Bab-al-Mandeb Strait, where Houthis are in action, but base oil cargoes have been moving from Yanbu and Jeddah with impunity for some time, and not getting into any problems with the Yemenis.
These cargoes were/ are moving to India, and latterly United Arab Emirates.
Indian demand for Luberef base oils is at a peak, and with no cargoes moving into Middle East Gulf, Yanbu perhaps has surplus material available.
Middle East Gulf
U.A.E. sources involved in blending operations are incurring huge difficulties and problems with stocks of base oils either running out, or going extremely low. Traders are no longer allocating supplies but have informed customers that they will be unable to offer base oils until further notice, that being when Hormuz opens.
Some of the sources known to this report in U.A.E. have cargoes on vessels which are still ‘swinging on the hook’ at anchorage at Khorfakkan and Fujairah. Other vessels have been diverted to alternative discharge ports, to minimize demurrage charges. This has not been easy since sales of the cargoes have had to be remotely completed with new receivers who were prepared to accept the cargo onboard.
This report has been trying to ascertain how the costs of demurrage or delays are to be handled, but was informed that that matter were private and confidential and were between the traders/receivers and owners of vessels.
Presumably, a cargo which was loaded out of USG, would have been purchased at pre war prices, and would have a price ’buffer’ now that prices are rising, but demurrage costs will be high with some vessels looking at around $50k.
For products remaining in tank, sellers have hiked levels to parity with other international prices ( whatever they may be …???)
The speciality oils producer confirmed last week the have suspended operations due to a lack of material. Without base oils arriving in bulk, and additives coming in by container, the operation has had to close down for the time being. A cargo from South Korea is tantalisingly close just outside the Gulf, and the company has investigated ways to discharge this cargo in another port, perhaps in Oman, and transport at least some of the cargo by road to keep the unit from closing.
The next problem facing receivers is that when Hormuz reopens, there will be major congestion in U.A.E. ports.
Base oil prices in U.A.E. are rising and have already risen inline with other international levels, but no new material has arrived since Hormuz closed.
Group I, CIF/CFR U.A.E. ports,
SN150: $1,725/t-$1,755/t
SN500: $1,770/t-$1,795/t
BS 150: $1,965/t-$1,995/t
Group II base oils basis FCA, or on an RTW delivered basis U.A.E. and Oman, have prices raised but with no new quantities coming on the market. Quantities are being restricted to regular and contracted buyers only, with no new customers being accepted.
110N, 150N and 220N: $1,725/t-$1,775/t
600N: $1,870/t-$1,900/t
High ends of the ranges refer to material being delivered by RTW in U.A.E. and into the Omani exclave, north of Khorfakkan and Fujairah.
Group II base oils imported into U.A.E. and other Middle East Gulf ports in Qatar, Bahrain and Kuwait were supplied from a number of sources, Red Sea, U.S., South Korea, Singapore and Europe. Cargoes were mostly discharged into storage in U.A.E., then smaller parcels transhipped to ports around Middle East Gulf.
Following drone and missile strikes by Iran on Ras Laffan refinery in Qatar, the Pearl production of GTL Group III+ has stopped and unconfirmed reports are that production could be out for around a year due to extensive damage which is still being assessed.
Sources in U.A.E. have commented that Sitra refinery in Bahrain, and the production of Group III at Bapco, will be out of commission for around six months.
One of the the Adnoc refineries at Al Ruwais has also been affected, with that refinery shutting down operations. Still no news has been heard from Adnoc regarding the latest status of the damage and estimated downtime for the refinery.
It is somewhat surprising that no updates from any of the refineries have been made public, but damage assessment can take some time, and inspectors who would carry out this work may not be available in Middle East Gulf at this time.
Group III base oils, FCA Hamriyah/Sharjah port, or delivered by RTW in U.A.E. and Oman, are no longer available due to shut down at Al Ruwais and Sitra.
The distributor in U.A.E. has ceased selling product and will only continue as and when material is forthcoming from Adnoc and Bapco.
Prices are therefore suspended.
Netbacks in respect of Group III base oils ex Al Ruwais and Sitra are suspended for the time being, until such time as supplies are reinstated.
Netbacks from Qatar are also similarly suspended.
Africa
North Africa
No reported cargo movements have been heard or seen during the last few days for any North African receivers and similarly, there are no reported movements from Algerian or Egyptian ports. The Moroccan requirements doe not appear to have been covered, and it may be the case that blending of finished lubricants may have been halted or suspended.
The production of base oils at Mohammedia ceased some twenty year back.
South Africa
A large cargo of composite base oils has loaded out of U.S. Gulf Coast for Durban, and such is the size of the cargo, around 28,000 tons in total, that it is suggested that part cargo will be discharged in Durban with the remaining cargo perhaps discharging in an Indian port.
West Africa
The South Korean cargo for NIgeria loaded with around 10,000 tons of 600N remains on the high seas en route to Lagos. Arrival should be within the next few days, and this report will check with shipping agents in Apapa., or with traders involved in the supply to the Nigerian market.
An 18,000 tons cargo out of the U.S., will be arriving in Lagos shortly, with another trader lifting 10,000 tons from other USG sources. With the addition of the Korean cargo, around 48,000 tons of base oils will discharge in Apapa, during March and April., with another cargo coming into Apapa from USEC.
The quantity is not known yet, but from past cargoes from BB Energy it is estimated to be around 10,000 tons of Group I grades, SN150, SN500 and SN900.
With prices going shy high, receivers in Nigeria are shying away from even looking at further cargoes citing the excuse that they would be unable to resell base oils to the market if the prices would have to reflect levels around $2000/t for SN900.
Sellers in Apapa, say that they cannot sell at inflated prices to the market, but a source has indicated that in early February the selling price for one grade of base oils was pitched at 1400N per litre, and by Friday 13th that price had risen to 1825N per litre.
This latest price may now be out of date, but would be equivalent to a price of around $1400/t. Bearing in mind that selling prices in Nigeria reflected pre-war levels, this selling price would be acceptable to resellers.
Suggestions are that Nigerian sellers are increasing prices in line with international increases.
Resellers are holding back from offering material which they have in tank at the moment, hoping that prices will rise and they will be able to increase selling prices and make increased margins on material already purchased at lower cost.
The Nigerian naira black market exchange rate is NGN 1,400 to the dollar, as of 6th April 2026.
Nigeria Group I prices, CFR Apapa remain since no new offers have been made or received since the Iran war.
The USEC cargo would have been negotiated and agreed prior to the Iran war, therefore prices should be in line with those below.
U.S. origin
SN150: $885/t
SN500: $925/t
SN900: $1,035/t
Ray Masson is director of Pumacrown Ltd., a trader and broker of petroleum products in London, U.K. Contact him directly at pumacrown@email.com.
Lubes’n’Greases shall not be liable for commercial decisions based on the contents of this report.
Historic and current base oil pricing data are available for purchase in Excel format.