Weekly EMEA Base Oil Price Report

The fact that most of the vessels granted passage take a route through the strait that takes them to the north, between the islands of Qeshm and Tunb, suggests that the direct southerly route has been mined to prevent vessel movements.

The Trump administration appears determined to push to have Hormuz reopened as soon as possible, but how, is an unknown factor at the time of writing this report.

The U.S. has begun mobilizing a large number of troops, but their deployment remains closely guarded. Meanwhile Israeli jets continue to target specific sites in Tehran where high ranking officials are believed to be sheltering from the incessant bombardment. Israel is now fighting the war on number of fronts. Hezbollah in Lebanon remains a target, and now the Houthis in Yemen have entered by war sending missiles into Israel.

The effects on energy supplies are plain for global markets to see, with dated deliveries of Brent crude oil prices spiking to levels around $115 per barrel Monday. The ripples of interruptions to supply chains are manifest around the world, with all European, Middle Eastern and African regions being affected by tightening crude supplies.

Prices for petroleum products have followed the crude price path and have climbed to levels not seen since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Gas oil is currently showing at around $1,450 per metric ton on the ICE exchange in London, and with this level it is de rigeur that base oil prices will move again to establish a premium over distillate levels.

Base oil prices have leapt during the past couple weeks and markets have developed into an auction, with sellers mostly holding back from promoting sales while buyers place countless inquiries as they work to buy available barrels to maintain their businesses.

Talking to a number of buyers during last week, it has become apparent that even at extortionate prices, some sellers are unwilling to commit to supplies, since they are unaware as to the cost of replacement stocks to maintain inventories. Cash flows have been torn apart by the urgency and the volatility in the market, with blenders rushing to recalculate new prices for finished products, which they have to hike due the rapid and continuing increases in base oil and additive prices, now changing daily. But this business only happens if availabilities are in place to sell.

Sellers are imposing large and often arbitrary increases, which are under continuous review to be moved higher.

Regionally there are huge variations in markets. For example in Europe, API Group l has gone exceptionally short, with limited availabilities and demand at an all-time high. Group II is moving in the same direction in the region, although replacement barrels will become available from domestic production and also from imports from U.S., but Group III faces enormous problems with supply chains in tatters due the cessation of production from Middle East Gulf sources, and very little chance of speedy resolution.

Europe and the U.S. could face long-term shortages of Group III base stocks, and some large blenders already talking with additive companies and regulatory authorities regarding the possibilities to alter or amend formulations to use Group II in place of Group III base oils.

There are other headwinds for the Group III camp as a number of refineries producing these grades are about to enter planned temporary maintenance shutdowns, starting in April and continuing in some cases for six to eight weeks.

The overall picture for API Group III markets looks grim, since the supply interruptions from the Middle East Gulf are being talked in terms of months before production can be restored, and in one case in Qatar, perhaps as long as a year or more, due to damage inflicted on the gas-to-liquids refinery at Ras Laffan by Iranian strikes.

On top of this comes the blockage of Hormuz, although this problem dates into insignificance when taking into account the damage and reparation that will be necessary to restart production from Sitra, Bahrain, Al Ruwais, United Arab Emirates, and the Pearl operation at Ras Laffan.

Houthi militants have again declared that merchant shipping with links to Israel, the U.S. or any allied nations will be attacked in the Bab-al-Mandeb Strait in the southern Red Sea, effectively closing the Suez Canal and Red Sea transit for tankers operating on behalf of European and U.S. owners and charterers. This move will also impinge on other merchant ships such as container lines and bulk carriers, all of which carry vital cargoes for European and U.S. markets. Exports from Europe will also be affected, forcing ships bound for India and Asia-Pacific again to detour around South Africa’s Cape of Good Hope.

Economically, all nations are bracing for a surge in inflation, with associated increases in borrowing costs. This will affect consumers and manufacturing across the regions.

Crude and Gas Oil Prices

Crude oil prices continue to rise against a background of volatility and uncertainty. Fear of the unknown and the eventual consequences are becoming driving factors behind the market.

Dated deliveries of Brent crude had moved to over $115 per barrel, but retreated to around $113 Monday. By today, Wednesday, the level on ICE fell to $102/bbl. West Texas Intermediate crude breached the $100/bbl barrier and was hovering just below it today.

This may be linked to politics as U.S. President Donald Trump announced that American boots may hit the ground in Iran, causing ructions on both sides of the political divide in the U.S. The crack between Brent and WTI normally ranges between $3 and $5 per barrel but recently widened to around $10.

Dated deliveries of Brent: $113.55/bbl, May front month
WTI: $103.30/bbl, May front month

European low-sulfur gas oil: $1,396/t, April front month

Source: London ICE trading, late Monday, March 30

Europe

The European market for Group l base oils, where available, has turned into an auction house where buyers make bids and offers to purchase and sellers are able to pick and choose who to sell to, and when. Prices are now put into extremely wide ranges since it appears to be totally random as to what levels some material is being sold.

Bids from buyers are often being countered by sellers who up the ante by $50/t-$100/t, and even if buyers accept selling levels, they are being allocated smaller quantities than required, causing ill feeling and a lack of trust between companies and individuals.

Group l is now short around Europe. PKN Orlen’s Gdansk refinery announced last week that it would cease supplies of all Group l base oils until further notice, due to “raw material supplies being interrupted.” Buyers have complained that calls and emails sent to sellers are being ducked or ignored, and even after chasing buyers have been unable to convert or make contact with some suppliers.

Inquiries are flooding the market, with buyers looking wider afield to try to access product that can be used to maintain operations in blending plants, but many are complaining that they do not have enough stock to meet finished lubricant orders placed months ago. Others are declaring that prices will have to be changed for previous contracts and that an emergency situation now exists in the Group l market.

Buyers of finished lubricants are mainly onside when it comes to increased prices, but this report has heard of two instances where lubricant buyers are seeking legal advice on prices now being charged. One source said blenders are approaching lubricant customers and asking if they will pay higher prices, advising production will not continue at current values.

Uncertainty rules the European Group l markets, and this may continue as long as the Middle East situation persists.

European prices are moving all the time  and are significantly higher than last week, pushing offer levels to higher. Some sellers are looking at replacement costs as a guide to selling levels, whilst others are considering premiums over distillate fuels.

Markets have altered from being quiet and subdued to becoming a frenzy for buyers looking to lay hands on any material, often at any price. Price levels have moved higher, following the increasing prices of distillates, gas oil in particular.

There are no possibilities for any export deals to be structured at this time, with scarcely enough product to supply demand in local and regional markets

Group l

Export, basis FOB
Prices unavailable

Northwestern Europe, FCA basis Antwerp-Rotterdam-Amsterdam
SN150: $1,620/t-$1,700/t
SN500: $1,675/t-$1,740/t
Bright stock 150: $1,950/t-$2,100/t

Eastern Europe, FCA
No prices available either from Orlen or MOL

Mediterranean prices, FCA Spain
SN150: $1,570/t
SN600/500: $1,635/t
Bright stock: $1,985/t

Pan-European, FOB/FCA
SN150: €1,510/t-€1,570/t
SN500/600: €1,595/t-€1,680/t
Bright stock 150: €1,765/t-€1,845/t

Pan-European prices are assessed on an aggregate basis taking prices from Scandinavia, Poland, France, Germany, Benelux, Spain, Italy, Greece, the United Kingdom and Baltic States.

The euro’s exchange rate to the U.S. dollar was $1.14885 Monday.

European Group II base oil prices have moved higher with major suppliers in this market applying large increases during last week. the fact that crude and feedstocks have risen again from levels during last week, may see further upward adjustments during the coming days.

Increases between $150/t-$200/t came into effect at the beginning of last week, and it can be expected that more upward pressure will result in higher numbers evolving in the coming days and weeks.

Levels are very much subject to immediate change with short validities on any offered prices. Buyers have altered their stance and instead of playing a waiting game to see if levels will fall, they are reading into the news and reports that the Iranian war will not be over quickly, and that they must secure supplies of available material as soon as possible.

This seachange in interpretation of the situation has seen a flood of enquiries from regular and running new buyers, perhaps short of Group l base stocks, looking to secure whatever is possible to continue production of finished lubricants in blending operations.

Levels are now at levels around $1,700/t-$1,730/t in respect of the 150N grade with 600N between $1,790/t-$1,845/t.

Group II, FCA basis
110N: €1,565/t-€1,595/t
150N: €1,600- €1,625/t
220N: €1,575/t-€1,595/t
600N: €1,660/t-€1,695/t

Prices refer to a wide range of Group II base oils which may be sourced from within Europe, the U.S., the Red Sea and Asia-Pacific.

European Group III markets are facing mounting problems for supplies of replenishment cargoes with Middle East Gulf sources wiped out for the foreseeable future, with only Asia-Pacific and domestically produced barrels of fully approved grades available for the future.

All three sources in the Middle East Gulf have presumably lost production as a result of Iranian strikes on refineries. All have suspended supplies. Fires have been started at refineries in Qatar, Bahrain, and U.A.E. causing damage which has not been fully declared as yet by any of the operating companies involved.

The word ‘presumably’ is used in the para above because no official statements or announcements have been forthcoming from any of the three locations in Middle East Gulf. Some reports from sources in U.A.E. have suggested that it is too early for the full damage assessments to be conducted, but also there are reports that personnel have been advised to remain clear of the damaged refineries, with the possibility of further strikes by Iranian drone and missiles.

News heard on the grapevine suggested that the Sitra operation could take up to six months to return to production of Group III base oils, whilst in Qatar, the Shell Pearl project may be out of action for up to one year, depending on final assessments still to be made.

Al Ruwais has issued no news whatsoever, to either distributors locally, nor in Europe or the U.S., hence we await further news and developments as they become available.

The blockage of the Strait of Hormuz prevents vessels carrying bulk cargoes in either direction, but this pales into insignificance in light of the extensive damage caused to each of the producing refineries in the region.

Group III base oil availability from Cartagena in Spain may be curtailed with the start of maintenance which will commence in April and will run for about eight weeks. The producer will have taken action to boost stocks to cover the turnaround period and has been fully restocking a northwestern European hub. Prices are rising fast for the fully-approved material in the light of the current situation and also looking at the future.

European Group III prices are taken higher, with future shortages forecast for Europe given the breakdown in availability and supply chains from all Middle East Gulf sources.

U.S. capital projects now underway to install Group III capacity cannot be speeded up to meet European demand, but plants Group II ‘sacrificing’ to maximize Group III production. It is considered that any increase in Group III production in the U.S. will remain in the States.

Group III
Partly approved, FCA Antwerp-Rotterdam-Amsterdam, Northwestern Europe
4 cSt: €1,795/t-€1,820/t
6 cSt: €1,780/t-€1,810/t
8 cSt: €1,770/t-€1,795/t

Fully approved, FCA Northwestern Europe
4 cSt: €2,210/t-€2,300/t
6 cSt: €2,220/t-€2,310/t
8 cSt: €2,250/t-€2,325/t

All the above products sold on a delivered basis will be subject to transportation charges, added to the prices above.

Rerefined Group III, FCA Germany
4 cSt:  €1,625/t
5 cSt: €1,625/t
6 cSt: €1,645/t

Baltic Sea

With reports of new Ukrainian drone strikes on prime Russian storage terminals and refineries, it is doubtful whether there are any possibilities for Russian base oils to be exported at this time.

Although not specifically aimed at base oils, the U.K. has announced that it will intercept Russian shadow fleet vessels passing through U.K. waters. This will ratchet up the difficulty of Russian base oils being exported to Turkey or the Americas, should these vessels be used to carry cargoes.

No bulk exports of Russian base oils have been reported leaving  Baltic supply points, St. Petersburg, Vyborg or Primorsk. There are no export sales reported to any regions previously identified, such as Nigeria, with traders who were formerly involved in the Nigerian market scratching around.

Black Sea & Turkey

High and rising crude prices are having a negative affect on the Turkish economy which has been struggling with the Turkish lira falling to an all time low against the dollar last week. The additional dollars required to make crude purchases, is a considerable strain on the country. The sole Turkish base oil producer, Tupras, changed crude source from Urals to Arab Light from Saudi Arabia around eighteen month ago, and it will be interesting to see if there is temptation to revert to Russian supplies, now there could be problems accessing crude from Middle East Gulf.

It may be possible for Tupras at Izmir to accept crude cargoes which would load out of Yanbu and sail north through Suez.

Turkish blenders had been purchasing Group l base stocks from AMOC and APC in Alexandria, with Luberef adding to supplies of Group l and Group II base stocks to receivers in Gebze, Turkey,. These supplies will have been paused with rising prices taking tolls on Turkish blenders and traders, with a traditional shortage of access to foreign currencies, the added value will have made base oil purchasing nigh impossible for many companies.

A Turkish trader will receive a cargo of Group II grades from Taiwan, and this cargo has passed through the Red Sea and is en route to Gebze, Turkey,, arriving in the next few days.

Reports of a cargo loading out of Turkey, with Group l base oils going into to Indian receivers, had the vessel going through Suez, proceeding through the Red Sea, and the Strait of Bab-al-Mandeb where Houthis are active. The cargo will be Russian in origin, and the vessel will have declared to the IRGC in Tehran  allowing safe passage.

This was be the first Russian cargo loaded out of Limas terminal for India for some time.

Local prices for base oils from the Tupras refinery in Izmir remain as reported last week, but there is certainly upward pressure.

Group I, ex rack Izmir
Spindle oil: Tl 48,395.50/t plus, VAT Tl 11,708.30/t
SN150: Tl 44,918.00/t plus, VAT Tl 11,012.90/t
SN500: Tl 51,158.50/t plus, VAT Tl 12,260.4
Bright stock: Tl 67,556.50/t, plus VAT Tl 15,540.50/t

Sales incur a standard loading charge of Tl 10,146.50/t, which should be added to the prices above.

Traders in Turkey have advised no availabilities of imported base oils due to the volatility of prices. Traders are accepting cargoes now, for example to parcel from Taiwan, which will have been purchased at pre-war rates, and it will interesting to see what level are offered to potential buyers, perhaps later this week.

Group II, ex-works
110N and 220N: offers forthcoming this week
350N: prices to be advised, but not from Taiwan
150N: Unavailable
500N/600N, ex Taiwan or Saudi Arabia: Prices to be offered this week or next

It is not confirmed if these shipments of fully approved Group III from Spain are continuing in the face of price hikes that may make eventual finished lubricants uncompetitive in the Turkish market.

Group III

Partly approved, FCA
Tatneft 4 cSt: no avails.

Fully approved, CIF Gemlik in lots of 800-1,200 tons
Repsol: €2,410/t-€2,465/t

Middle East

The Samref refinery in Yanbu was hit by Iranian missiles, although damage was limited with no injuries or fatalities. Base oil production does not appear to have affected. Two smaller cargoes, for EGPC in Alexandria, and another for receivers in Aqaba loaded during first half of March.

Further to the diverted cargo which need up in Mumbai anchorage rather than Jebel Ali due to the Hormuz blockage, another large cargo which loaded during first half march is arriving in Mumbai this week, and another large parcel of around 20,000 tons will be loading out of Yanbu  later this week or next, also making its way to the west coast of India.

Indian demand for Luberef base oils is at a peak, and with n cargo moving into Middle East Gulf, Yanbu perhaps has surplus material to move. Prices have skyrocketed however, although it was suggested that these latter two cargoes had been agreed prior to the U.S. strike on Iran on the 28th February, so may be sold at original lower prices.

How vessels loading out of Saudi ports Yanbu and Jeddah avoid problems from Houthi rebels in Yemen remains a mystery, one theory being that vessels chartered to deliver into India and United Arab Emirates sail under a “friendly” flag such as Indian.

U.A.E. contacts are incurring mounting difficulties with stocks of base oils running low, and with traders adopting an allocation process, limiting buyers to a smaller proportion of requirements, in order the eke out available barrels in the hope that Hormuz will be open sooner rather than later.

Many of the sources known in U.A.E. have cargoes waiting on vessels which have been ‘swinging on the hook’ at the anchorage at Khorfakkan and Fujairah, waiting for the channel to open.

This report was informed that receivers from Hamriyah made the trip to Fujairah last week and were able to board the vessel to take samples and check the cargo. All appeared to be in order and the vessel against were looking after elements such as water, bunkers and victuals for the crew and officers on board.

This report tried to ascertain how the costs of demurrage or delays was to be handled, but was informed that that matters was confidential between the receivers and the owners of the vessel, but some arrangement had been worked out which was acceptable to both parties.

Presumably, the cargo which was loaded out of USG, would have been purchases at pre Iran war prices, and would have a price ’buffer’ now that prices are rising.

With no cargoes arriving into Middle East Gulf, traders however have increased prices of material in tank to align with international levels now being established.

The blender contacted last week confirmed that without base oils arriving in bulk, and additives coming in by container, the operation can carry on for another week, but running slower than normal, but at least the staff can be employed to continue producing speciality oils but the warehouses are full and orders are awaiting shipment to customers around the world.

The company has a cargo at anchorage outside Middle East Gulf, having sailed from Ulsan in South Korea at the end of January. The cargo is 10,000 tons of Group II light grades for manufacturing white oils and transformer oils.

When Hormuz is reopening, there will be major congestion in U.A.E. ports, which will be the next headache for receivers desperately awaiting base oils to arrive. One source said today that this will be a welcome headache to have.

Base oil prices in U.A.E. have risen inline with other international levels but with no new material arriving since Hormuz closed. Base oils arriving into U.A.E. receivers from vessels which are at anchorage will have pre war prices, although there will be charges to cover vessel expenses whilst awaiting Hormuz to reopen.

Group I, CIF/CFR U.A.E. ports, net contracted prices, costs and charges will eventually be revealed and will be incorporated into CIF/CFR prices.

SN150: $890/t-$925/t
SN500: $955/t-$980/t
Bright stock 150: $1,245/t-$1,275/t

Group II base oils basis FCA, or on an RTW delivered basis U.A.E. and Oman, have prices raised but with no new quantities coming on the market. Quantities are being restricted to regular and contracted buyers only, with no new customers being accepted.

110N, 150N and 220N: $1,720/t-$1,750/t
600N: $1,785/t-$1,825/t

High ends of the ranges refer to material being delivered by RTW in U.A.E. and into the Omani exclave, north of Khorfakkan and Fujairah.

Group II base oils imported into U.A.E. and other Middle East Gulf ports in Qatar, Bahrain and Kuwait were supplied from a number of  sources, Red Sea, U.S., South Korea, Singapore and Europe. Cargoes are most often discharged into storage in U.A.E., and then smaller parcels are transhipped to ports around Middle East Gulf.

Following drone and missile strikes by Iran on Ras Laffan refinery in Qatar, the Pearl production of GTL Group III+ has topped and unconfirmed reports are that production could be out for around one year due to extensive damage which is still being assessed.

Sitra refinery in Bahrain will be out of commission for around six months, but this information came through informal sources, but was repeated a number of times from various people.

One of the the Adnoc refineries at Al Ruwais has also been affected, with that refinery shutting down operations. Still no news has been heard from Adnoc regarding the latest status of the damage and estimated downtime for the refinery.

Group III base oils, FCA Hamriyah/Sharjah port, or delivered by RTW in U.A.E. and Oman, are no longer being delivered and there are no bulletins as when production will be restored.

The distributor in U.A.E. has ceased selling product and will only continue as and when material is forthcoming from Adnoc.

Prices are therefore suspended.

Netbacks in respect of Group III base oils ex Al Ruwais and Sitra are suspended for the time being until such time as supplies are reinstated. Netbacks from Qatar are also similarly suspended.

Africa

Theer have been no reported cargo movements during the last week for any North African receivers and similarly, there are no reported movements from Algerian or Egyptian ports.

A large cargo of composite base oils has loaded out of U.S. Gulf Coast for Durban, and such is the size of the cargo, heard around 28,000 tons in total, that it is suggested that part cargo will be discharged in Durban with the remaining cargo going on to discharge in an Indian port, as yet unknown.

The South Korean cargo for NIgeria loaded with around 10,000 tons of 600N remains on the high seas en route to Lagos. Arrival should be within the next week, but stoppage and layover time id not known hence the vessel may take a few extra days.

A trader has loaded an 18,000 tons cargo out of the U.S., with a competitor lifting 10,000 tons from other USG sources. With the addition of the Korean cargo, around 38,000 tons of material will discharge in Apapa, during March and April.

Yet another cargo which must have been agreed prior to prices rising, has been loaded out of USEC, by a trader involved in the buy-out of an existing trading company which supplied a great deal of Group l base oils to the Nigerian market.

The quantity is not known yet, but from past cargoes it is estimated to be around 10,000 tons of Group l grades, SN150, SN500 and SN900.

Nigeria is not considering further supplies a this time having had hypothetical offers made on the basis of new prices in the market. Receivers have been shocked to see the levels at which product would have to be delivered into Nigeria.

Receivers in Nigeria are going to realise that current prices are no longer possible, and if they wish to buy future cargoes they are going to have to pay the going rate, either that or they will end up with no material in tank to resell.

Sellers in Apapa, say that they cannot sell at inflated prices to the market, but a source has indicated that in early February the selling price for one grade of base oils was pitched at 1400N per litre, and by Friday 13th that price had risen to 1825N per litre. Suggestions are that Nigerian traders will now increase prices as much as they can in line with international increases.

Resellers are not offering any material which they have in tank at the moment, possibly hoping that prices will rise and they will be able to increase selling prices and make decent profits on material already purchased at lower cost.

The Nigerian naira black market exchange rate is NGN 1,393 to the dollar, as of 30th March 2026.

Latest Nigeria Group I prices, CFR Apapa remain since no new offers have been made or received since the Iran situation. The U.S. East Coast cargo was probably negotiated and agreed prior to the Iran war, therefore prices will probably be in line with those below.

Group I, FCA Apapa
U.S. Origin
SN150: $885/t
SN500: $925/t
SN900: $1,035/t

Ray Masson is director of Pumacrown Ltd., a trader and broker of petroleum products in London, U.K. Contact him directly at pumacrown@email.com.

Lubes’n’Greases shall not be liable for commercial decisions based on the contents of this report.

Historic and current base oil pricing data are available for purchase in Excel format.