Weekly EMEA Base Oil Price Report

The unknowns and fundamental lack of objectives haunts the markets surrounding the region. Talking to sources and contacts in UAE and Bahrain this week, merely reinforces the concept that few people know what to expect next, and what steps to take to preserve and protect businesses and enterprise in the Middle East.

The rippling effects are being felt worldwide with the greatest fears being that of the unknown, and uncertainties surrounding the situation on the ground in Iran.

Base oil markets are reeling from the spiraling movements on crude and petroleum product prices, with base oil producers and resellers indicating almost arbitrary price increases to available barrels of all types of base oil.

Some have estimated raw material cost increases and have applied incremental pricing to products, but with few buyers purchasing material now, the market is seeing a vacuous situation where sellers are pricing product higher, but with no buying appetite from blenders, other than necessary small quantities being acquired merely to maintain operations.

Blenders forced into purchasing base oils and additives at inflated prices have reacted by applying similar increases to finished lubricants, where possible, fueling inflationary practices, which are echoed across the board in other industries.

Supply chain interruptions are just around the corner, with problems for lubricant blenders in the Middle East starting to feel the pinch with a lack of raw materials reaching the Gulf. Without lubrication, nothing moves!

Effects outside the region will soon start to be felt, with the loss of Group III production from the three main sites in MEG due to Iranian missile and drone strikes on refineries in the Gulf. Sitra in Bahrain, Al Ruwais in UAE and Ras Laffan in Qatar have all suspended operations and are no longer producing Group III base oils. For how long is uncertain, but an extended interruption to supplies can be expected from all these sources.

The supply breakdown will cause huge problems in markets in India, Europe and U.S., with other suppliers possibly unable to take up the slack, in trying to provide cover for all requirements of these base oil grades.

The fact that Iran has attacked neighboring countries and is maintaining a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, is exerting economic and physical pressures in the region, with necessities such as food and medicines starting to run short, with no supplies able to enter the MEG.

Road and air transportation are limited, with airspace over the region often closed with goods and people unable to move around the region as normal.

With crude oil having moved significantly above U.S.$100 per barrel because of Hormuz being closed to vessels, trisection has limited international crude supplies moving out from the region. Around 20% of all crude and petroleum products are shipped through the Strait, along with other materials such as fertilizers and chemicals.

There are international plans to reopen Hormuz, but these acts may take weeks to enact, with the result that in the meantime, Iran holds the rest of the world to ransom, with the dire economic results that will surely follow.

On Monday the U.S. said that several vessels were able to transit Hormuz and that more ships would follow. It is not known why this sudden improvement in the situation has occurred.

Crude oil prices once again broke through the $100/bbl level this week and have remained around that level.

Crude reserves have been released by several governments, trying to plug the gap in supplies caused by the restriction on traffic transiting Hormuz.

Crude and Gas Oil Prices

Current crude and gas oil prices as follows.
Dated Brent: $100.75/bbl, in respect of May front month.
West Texas Intermediate: $94.15/bbl, remaining in respect of April front month.
European low-sulfur gasoil is posting at $1,117/t, now having moved to April front month.
(London ICE pm, March 16, 2026)

Europe

Prices of API Group l base oils have reacted across Europe with most numbers having increased by between $150-$250/t over prices established up until the U.S. attacks on Iran on Feb. 28.  The problem is that very few purchases are being made currently, due to the volatility in the market. Buyers are sitting on the fence hoping and waiting for some form of stability.

Sources contacted this week, informed this report that they needed to know if prices would remain at new highs, or if there was a chance of levels collapsing. The uncertainties mean that eventual pricing for blended finished lubricants becomes very difficult, to ensure that costs are fully recovered, with some sellers having entered term contracts without clauses to move prices when faced with the current situation. Some have claimed force majeure with customers and are declining to supply at the present time.

Variations on prices are remarkable with one buyer offering insights to levels this week, quoting differences of up to $100/t from one supplier to another.

The difficulties are that sellers are reacting to prices being quoted in reports, which vary from week to week, and with the rapid changes in the market, it has become very difficult to determine actual selling levels across the European markets. Sellers are keeping levels under constant review almost on an hourly basis, reacting to news and events as they unfold.

The base oil market is moving more quickly than normal, with prices being reviewed on an almost hourly basis. European price levels have not moved over the past week, retaining the large increases applied following the Iranian strikes two weeks back. The markets are quiet with buyers waiting as long as possible to see where the markets may be heading.

With the U.S. declaring that it may take longer than anticipated to achieve objectives in Iran, the possibility that prices may come back down suddenly appear to be remote, with buyers having to adjust budgets and cash flow to prepare for purchasing at higher levels.

Several European Group l refiners have declared that they are looking at stocks of crude and are preparing for lower production rates on all petroleum products. This will ultimately affect feedstock availabilities and may have dire effects on refining capacity across Europe and beyond.

Price levels gamin as per last week’s levels, with little upward or downward movements, following large increases applied following increases in crude and product prices.

European Group l Export Prices FOB (These are hypothetical levels which would be necessary to accomplish exports into markets such as West Africa).

SN 150: $1,020-$1,060/t
SN 500: $1,125-$1,200/t
Brightstock 150: $1,475-$1,550/t

Group I Prices NW Europe, FCA basis ARA are maintained
SN 150: $1,255-$1,295/t
SN 500: $1325-$1,360/t
Brightstock 150: $1,565-$1,625/t

Eastern Europe FCA

Supplier (A)	Supplier (B)
SN 150: $1,275-$1,300/t	SN 150: €1,080/t
SN 500: $1,345-1,390/t	SN 500: €1,100/t
Brightstock: €1,640/t	Brightstock: €1,385/t

Med prices, FCA (Spain)
SN 150: $1,285/t
SN 600: $1,325t
BS: $1,695 /t

Pan-European, FOB/FCA
SN 150: €1095-€1,140/t
SN 500/600: €1,185-1,245/t
Brightstock 150: €1,495-1,575/t

Pan-European prices are assessed on an aggregate basis taking prices from Scandinavia, Poland, France, Germany, Benelux, Spain, Italy, Greece, U.K. and Baltic States.

The euro/US dollar exchange rate is quoted at $1,14977 on March 16.

European Group II base oil prices are revised higher to new levels which are quoted below, but levels are subject to change and may be altered during the next few days, as events develop.

Levels are now at around $1,375-$1,425/t for the 150N grade with 600N between $1,490 and $1,555/t.

Group II prices FCA basis
110N: €1,170-€1,200/t
150N: €1,185- €1,220/t
220N: €1,155-€1,175/t
600N: €1,270-€1,295/t

Prices refer to a wide range of Group II base oils which may be sourced from within Europe, U.S., Red Sea and Asia-Pacific.

There are serious concerns for the European Group III markets which have been highly dependent on supplies from GULF suppliers, all of whom have suspended production and supplies because of strikes on refineries by Iranian drones and missiles. Fires have been started at each of the refineries in Qatar, Bahrain, and UAE causing damage which has not been fully declared yet by any of the operating companies involved. How long production will be affected is not yet disclosed, but the damage to both Sitra and Al Ruwais refineries appears to be significant, and the units may be out for some weeks before restoration of any production starts.

Fortunately, several cargoes were loaded prior to the closure of Hormuz and of course prior to the damage caused by Iranian attacks. One large parcel from Ras Laffan in Qatar will arrive at NW Europe in the next few days, with other cargoes from Sitra and Al Ruwais on the water en route to ARA.

Another reported loading has been noted from Indonesia, following a cargo which arrived in Rotterdam in the second half of February. The party behind these cargoes in unknown, but efforts will be made to establish details a soon as possible. There are further delays to a Malaysian cargo and no news of any further parcels arriving from Ulsan in South Korea.

Donald Trump has called for assistance from several allies to move to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but this will not happen overnight and may take weeks before vessels can move safely and securely through the channel.

Two large cargoes of Group III base oils loaded from Cartagena in Spain for a reselling hub in NW Europe during February, and Europe may become more dependent on production from this supplier.

European Group III prices have been raised again, with imminent shortages predicted for the European market given the breakdown in availabilities from all GULF sources. Reliance on South Korea and perhaps some Chinese sources may come into the frame for the future of Group III supplies for Europe.

It is doubtful whether U.S. production could be speeded up to help cover European demand.

Group III prices in respect of partly approved material, FCA ARA and NW Europe.

4cst: €1,495/t-€1,525/t
6cst: €1,485/t-€1,520/t
8cst: €1,460/t-€1,485/t

Fully approved prices FCA from hubs in ARA, NW Europe, and Spain are maintained at the new higher levels:

Basis FCA NW European hub
4cst: €1,885/t-€1,925/t
6cst: €1,895/t-€1,935/t
8cst: €1,940/t-€1,965/t

All the above products sold on a delivered basis will be subject to transportation charges, added to the prices above.

Rerefined Group III prices are maintained this week, but these sources may become critical for the Group III market.

Basis FCA Germany
4cst: €1,265/t
5cst: €1,250/t
6cst: €1,280/t

Baltic Sea

There have been reports of small quantities of Russian base oils being exported from the Baltic, presumably out of St Petersburg, but these quantities are said to be in flexies in containers, hence quantities will be small. The destination for the base oils is also unknown but would possibly only be for Central or South American receivers. Also, it is not identified as to which refinery is supplying these quantities of base oils.

No bulk exports of Russian base oils are reported leaving the Baltic supply points, St Petersburg or Vyborg, However, given the situation in Iran and the rising prices of crude and feedstock, Russian base oil prices will be increasing following crude hikes over the past two weeks. With Lukoil and Rosneft remain under strict sanctions, there are no export sales reported to any regions previously identified such as Nigeria.

Black Sea & Turkey

There are warnings that the crude price spike could have a very damaging effect on the Turkish economy which is fragile now anyway. With higher prices for crude supplies, the Turkish Central bank will be pushed to raise extra capital to buy supplies of crude to maintain the country.

Turkish blenders are purchasing Group l base stocks from AMOC and APC in Alexandria in Egypt. Luberef are also involved in supplying quantities of Group l and Group II base stocks to receivers in Gebze. It has been confirmed that a Turkish trader will receive a cargo of Group II grades from Taiwan. This cargo may transit the Bab-al-Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea, avoiding the new Houthi threats of renewing attacks on vessels which have any ties to U.S., U.K. or other allied supporters against the Iranian regime. If the vessel does not use the Red Sea route, the voyage time will be extremely long and protracted since the vessel will have to sail around the Cape and then transit the Med from the Atlantic.

Rising base oil prices will be a massive blow for Turkish receivers, since they would be looking to purchase at the low end of any pricing spectrum. Any new imports will have much higher prices than previous cargoes.

Turkish domestic prices from Tupras remain unchanged so far, but there will be changes advised this week.

Spindle oil: Tl 32,978.00/t plus, KDV Tl 8,624.90/t
SN150: Tl 29,501.00/t plus, KDV Tl 7,929.50/t
SN500: Tl 35,741.00/t plus, KDV Tl 9,177.50/t
Brightstock: Tl 52,139.00/t, plus KDV Tl 12,457.10/t

In addition to KDV (value added tax), sales incur the standard loading charge of Tl 10,146.50/t, which should be added to the prices above

On checking with traders in Turkey few availabilities were advised, perhaps due to the volatility of prices, but more likely traders are taking stock of cargoes which may be arriving prompt.

Group II, ex-works:
110N and 220N, price offers to be reviewed
350N: prices to be advised in due course
150N, ex Taiwan or Saudi Arabia: No offered prices
500N/600N, ex Taiwan or Saudi Arabia: Prices to be advised about end of March

Partly approved Group III
Tatneft 4cst FCA: currently no availabilities

Fully approved Group III from Cartagena, Spain, CIF Gemlik. Small lots of 800mt-1200 mt per cargo supplied by Repsol into receivers in Gemlik will have had prices increased in line with other sales and supplies to hubs in NW Europe.

€2,120/t-€2,155/t

Middle East

Fujairah has been hit by Iranian fire and now is ruled out as a haven for vessels awaiting Hormuz transit. A cargo loaded out of Yanbu has been diverted from receivers in the UAE to buyers in Mumbai. This is because of the blocked Strait of Hormuz, rather than have the vessel incur demurrage waiting at anchorage for an indefinite length of time.

Yanbu and Jeddah are sufficiently distant to avoid Iranian drones, but they attacked Ras Tanura refinery on the Gulf coast of Saudi Arabia. and caused a fire which has not caused too much damage.

How vessels loading out of Saudi ports Yanbu and Jeddah avoid problems from Houthi rebels in Yemen remains a mystery, with one suggestion that vessels chartered to deliver into India and UAE sail under the Chinese flag, These vessels a deemed ‘friendly’ by the IRGC in Tehran who coordinate Houthi attacks on merchant shipping in the Bab-al-Mandeb Strait in the southern Red Sea.

Cargoes are loading from Yanbu and Jeddah, for receivers in Aqaba, Durban and Alexandria who are taking delivery of quantities of Group l grades from both Yanbu and Jeddah, with Group II base oils ex Yanbu going into Durban.

The war against Iran continues into a third week, with no end in sight. Reports are that the new Ayatollah escaped death following bombing of his home, when he decided to take a walk in the garden. Sources in the UAE have again suggested that they are clinging on to hope that Hormuz will soon be open so that they are able to receive raw materials such as base oils and additives, whilst at the same time they can export finished lubes to markets in Africa, where receivers have been waiting for two weeks to take quantities of finished lubricants which are sitting in a warehouse.

One blender informed this report that without raw materials arriving in bulk cargoes, and additives coming in by container, they will only have around three weeks of stocks to blend. The company is desperate to hear news of a cargo that has arrived at the anchorage outside the Gulf having sailed from Ulsan in South Korea at the end of January. The cargo is around 10,000 tons of Group II light grades for manufacturing white oils and transformer oils. Agents are in touch with the vessel, which has now been at anchor for seven days.

With the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed to shipping by the IRGC, getting cargoes of base oils in and out of the Gulf is impossible. The problem for Hormuz, however, is not the Iranian navy, but the fast shore patrol boats and shore-based drones which are being fired at any vessel transiting the channel. Several ships have been hit and have been set on fire, with several casualties being reported over the last week.

Trump has taken out all military targets on Kharg Island in the north, where Iranian crude and products are shipped to export destinations such as China and North Korea. To fully accomplish taking Kharg, some 5,000 U.S. troops are being readied to take over the installations on the island.

Blenders and traders had purchased several cargoes of Group l and Group II base oils as insurance against any conflict, but some cargoes are not loaded, (good news) or are on the high seas with few options to divert or delay without substantial financial penalties involved in demurrage.

UAE-bound cargoes have arrived from the U.S., South Korea, Thailand and Saudi Arabia, with some diverted to Indian receivers and some at anchorage outside the Gulf.

Base oil prices into UAE are currently maintained but no new material has arrived since Hormuz was closed

Group I, CIF/CFR UAE ports
SN150: $890/t-$925/t
SN500: $955/t-$980/t
Brightstock 150: $1245/t-$1275/t

If cargoes do make it through Hormuz, additional expenses on vessels will have to be considered, with vessels incurring costs on fuel, crew and insurances and with demurrage costs applying to the period at anchorage. Additional costs will have to be added to receivers’ charges if deliveries of cargoes are to go ahead. It is believed that negotiations are currently underway, between receivers and shipowners to agree arrangements for discharging. Some receivers have suggested that owners’ insurance should cover delays and demurrage, but some P&I clubs are denying that they are picking up the charges for vessels delays.

Group II base oils basis FCA, or on an RTW delivered basis UAE and Oman, have prices raised but with no new quantities coming on the market.

110N, 150N and 220N: $1,465/t-$1,490/t
600N: $1,540/t-$1,570/t

High ends of the ranges refer to material being delivered by RTW in UAE and into the Omani exclave, north of Khorfakkan and Fujairah.

Group II base oils imported into UAE and other GULF ports in Qatar, Bahrain and Kuwait were supplied from several sources, Red Sea, U.S., South Korea, Singapore and Europe. Cargoes are often discharged into storage in UAE, and then smaller parcels are transshipped to various ports around the Gulf. With drone and missile strikes by Iran on Ras Laffan refinery in Qatar, the Pearl production of GTL Group III+ has halted, and no further loading will take place for the time being. Sitra refinery in Bahrain was also hit, causing a fire with Bapco declaring force majeure. Base oils are affected and with many personnel injured in the fire and explosion, it will be some time before production of Group III base oil is full restored at this site.

Following the strike at Sitra, news quickly spread that the Adnoc refinery at Al Ruwais was also targeted, with the refinery shutting down operations and hence no Group III base oils coming out of the refinery. This report is awaiting news from distributors on what action they will take, and how they will handle the situation with customers in Europe and U.S.

Group III base oils, FCA Hamriyah/Sharjah port, or delivered by RTW in UAE and Oman, will have prices maintained but with no new supplies of material coming from Bapco or Adnoc until refinery restoration is completed.

The sellers in the UAE are allocating product that remains in tank, but comments received from the distributor this week suggest that they will only operate for a further two weeks before running out of stock.

4cst: $1,225/t
6cst: $1,235/t
8cst: $1,255/t

Prices for Group III prices above include a reseller’s margin of around $105/t to cover storage, handling, insurance and margins. RTW deliveries from distributors can incur a further charge of between $20/t-$65/t, depending on delivery location and quantity.

Netbacks for Group III base oils ex Al Ruwais and Sitra are suspended for the time being until supplies are reinstated.

Netbacks from Qatar are also similarly suspended.

Africa

There are no reported North African cargoes this week, although Turkish traders are looking for material, but will probably wait until there is more clarity and less volatility in the market.

The large base oil cargo will load out of Rotterdam and Fawley for Durban, this cargo will load either this month or in April. Vessels seem to be fixed for first week of April, but this is subject to change

A cargo of around 9,000-10,000 tons of three Group l grades has loaded from Fawley, delivering Group l grades to Conakry, Abidjan and Tema.

The South Korean cargo is believed to have been loaded with around 10,000 tons of 600N.

Another trader has loaded an 18,000 tons cargo out of the U.S., with a competitor lifting 10,000 tons from other U.S. Gulf Coast sources. With the addition of the Korean cargo, around 38,000 tons of material will discharge in Apapa, during March and April.

Another cargo may be coming in from the U.S. Gulf Coast, with vessel enquiries out in the market, but prices will have moved sharply upwards unless the negotiation was completed prior to the U.S./Israeli attack on Iran.

This parcel will be around another 18,000 tons in total but may load partly out of USAC in addition to USG. More clarification will be available later this week.

No reports of Russian offers are being currently heard.

Bid levels remain at the following, but realistically buyers will have to pay substantially more for future cargoes.

SN 150: $800/t
SN 500: $870/t
SN 900: $990/t

These numbers are incredibly low and adding freight, margin and other expenses to cover items such as demurrage, these levels would put FOB prices at around:

SN 150: $630/t
SN 500: $700/t
SN 900: $820/t

These levels were impossible previously but now will be totally out of the question with prices possibly around $400/t higher than the last levels seen below.

The Nigerian naira black market exchange rate is NGN 1,380 to the dollar, as of March 16.

Latest Nigeria Group I prices, CFR Apapa remain since no new offers have been made or received since the Iran situation.

U.S. Origin
SN150: $885/t
SN500: $925/t
SN 900: $1,035/t

Ray Masson is director of Pumacrown Ltd., a trader and broker of petroleum products in London, U.K. Contact him directly at pumacrown@email.com.

Lubes’n’Greases shall not be liable for commercial decisions based on the contents of this report.

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