Weekly EMEA Base Oil Price Report

API Group I parcels are heading to destinations such as India, the Middle East Gulf and West Africa from U.S. sources, and a raft of Group II cargoes are moving from Asia-Pacific locations to the United Arab Emirates and South Africa. Group II cargoes have also loaded from the U.S. Gulf of Mexico coast for European and Middle East Gulf ports, and a number of Group III parcels are loading from Middle East Gulf producers for distributors in Europe, the U.S. and Asia.

Base oil prices remain under varying degrees of downward pressure, and with crude oil prices falling below $60 per barrel for dated deliveries of Brent crude, further pressures may be expected in the new year. Availabilities across all API groups are showing positive, so buyers are in a strong position to negotiate and counter offers from suppliers. Even Group III prices are being challenged in major markets such as the U.S. and Europe.

Prices are softer and will probably remain in this mode moving forward into 2026. Geopolitical tensions have been watered down to some extent, with peace processes taking shape in both the Gaza conflict and the war between Russia and Ukraine. Should these hostilities end or wind down, downward pressure could increase.

Crude values are already expected to dip during next year due to a large increase in available barrels from OPEC+ members, which could lead to very large excesses of global availabilities. The U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasted a global glut of crude and predicts, for example, that prices for West Texas Intermediate will average around $51/bbl in 2026. Brent crude is expected to follow a similar trajectory, with prices falling as global supply outpaces demand growth.

These moves are seen as a threat to Russia’s war chest and perhaps could urge the Kremlin to pursue a peace agreement rather than suffer more Western sanctions that could further erode its oil revenues.

Crude and Gas Oil Prices

Crude prices dipped during the past week but have since staged a mini rally. As said above, prices are expected to weaken during the next few months.

Dated deliveries of Brent: $62.05/bbl, February front month
West Texas Intermediate: $58/bbl, February front month

European low-sulfur gas oil: $621.00 per metric ton, January front month

Source: London ICE trading late Monday Dec. 22

Europe

With business and trade slowing to a standstill, demand remains slack from the European markets and probably will not revive until well into next year. Economies remain in perilous states across Europe as manufacturing output has sunk to extremely low levels. These developments impinge on finished lubricant demand and therefore on base oil trade.

Discounts offered during December to promote sales of Group I base oils have not had the desired effect, as buyers have been able to choose when and from whom to purchase.

The news from Hungary is that Mol’s refinery in Szazhalombatta will resume making base oil supplies from Jan. 5. Until then the company remains dependent on suppliers such as PK Orlen at Gdansk.

Bright stock remains tight and highly priced, holding a large premium over solvent neutral grades.

Many blending operations are now closed and will not reopen until Jan 5.

Prices for solvent neutral grades are unchanged from last week.

Group I

Exports, FOB
SN150: $635/t-$675/t
SN500: $700/t-$725/t
Bright stock 150: $1,155/t-$1,195/t

Northwestern Europe, FCA basis Antwerp-Rotterdam-Amsterdam
SN150: $785/t-$810/t
SN500: $865/t-$900/t
Bright stock 150: $1,275/t-$1,325/t

Eastern Europe, FCA
SN150: €773/t
SN500: €825/t
Bright stock: €1,134/t

Mediterranean, FCA (one optimistic supplier)
SN150: $835/t
SN600: $950/t
Bright stock: $1,420/t

Pan-European, FOB/FCA basis
SN150: €625/t-€675/t
SN500/600: €700/t-€745/t
Bright stock 150: €1,085/t-€1,120/t

Pan-European prices are assessed on an aggregate basis from levels in Scandinavia, Poland, France, Germany, Benelux, Spain, Italy, Greece and the United Kingdom

The euro/U.S. dollar exchange rate was quoted at $1.17625 Monday.

Group II prices have gravitated to lower levels as major suppliers in Europe issue reductions. Levels have been circulated to buyers at $1,025/t for 150 neutral and $1,200/t for the heavier 600N, but it is assumed that discounts may still be applied.

The duty element of 3.7% for imported Group II base stocks from sources not having a free trade agreement with the European Union will cease on Jan. 28. The quota system has in fact been disabled, but this move will officially rule that imported Group II base oils will no longer be liable for duty.

Demand for Group II base oils has slowed, but sources expect that January and February could see a resurgence in demand for finished lubricants for the spring oil change season.

Prices are amended to reflect the decreases mentioned above.

Group II prices, FCA basis
110N: €800/t-€820/t
150N: €810- €825/t
220N: €835/t-€845/t
600N: €965/t-€1,020/t

Prices refer to a wide range of Group II base oils that can be sourced from within Europe, the U.S., the Red Sea and Asia-Pacific. Ranges refer to bulk shipments.

Group III base oils have demand holding with further positive sentiment being talked for the new year. Prices remain firmer, with little or no resistance from buyers to pay a premium to current levels for future sales.

Four centiStoke remains most in demand, but 6 cSt and 8 cSt grades are also being hoovered up by the market. Cargoes continue to arrive from the Middle East Gulf and Malaysia, with one Korean supplier still experiencing shipping delays.

Increasing production will be fundamental for the European Group III market, with more competition entering the scene as additional barrels arrive from Saudi Arabia and the U.S. Gulf coast.

Domestic European production of Group III base oils will also be increased when Shell opens its new Group III plant in Wesseling, Germany.

Prices are unchanged this week both for grades with full and partial slates of finished lubricant approvals.

Partially approved, FCA Antwerp-Rotterdam-Amsterdam, Northwestern Europe
4 cSt: €1,165/t-€1,190/t
6 cSt : €1,135/t-€1,155/t
8 cSt: €1,125/t-€1,145/t

There are reportedly numbers offered equating to around €85/t below the above levels for each grade.

Fully approved, FCA Antwerp-Rotterdam-Amsterdam, Northwestern Europe, Spain
4 cSt: €1,610/t-€1,625/t
6 cSt: €1,595/t-€1,620/t
8 cSt: €1,585/t-€1,610/t

All the above products sold on a delivered basis are subject to transportation costs, which will be added to the prices above.

Rerefined Group III, FCA Germany
4 cSt:  €990/t
5 cSt : €990/t
6 cSt: €1,050/t

Baltic Sea

There has been no mention of base oil exports, whether it be prices, vessels or cargoes loaded out of the Baltic regions. No vessels are listed in shipping reports exporting base oils to locations such as Turkey or West Africa. Large cargoes of around 12,000 tons, which historically would be shipped to receivers in Singapore, are also missing from reports.

There do not appear to be any Russian offers for Nigeria, although one trader renowned for accessing Russian barrels has a cargo on the water for Lagos, but this cargo would probably be loaded from the south of Russian rather than the Baltic. The cargo could also be bridged to Egypt, before changing certificates of origin and proceeding to Nigeria. This cargo, if Russian in origin, would not have been loaded out of the Baltic and would have been loaded out of the Sea of Azov or Turkey.

Assumptions are that Russian refineries are directing supplies to the domestic market. There are reports of Russian prices rising in the domestic market. Such reports are generally unreliable but may indicate that base oils in Russia are in limited or scarce supply. Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries and storage terminals appear to have affected availabilities of base oils.

Notional prices for Russian exports through the Baltic are unchanged here for lack of information.

Russian exports, FOB St. Petersburg/Vyborg
SN150: $625/t-$655/t (notional)
SN500: $660/t-$685/t (notional)

Black Sea & Turkey

No Russian base oil cargoes appear to have entered Turkey, and there are no signs of any coming in the near future. The Bashneft cargo rumored last week turned out to be false. U.S. sanctions on Lukoil and Rosneft could have implications for base oil movements.

Further telephone calls and emails to Litasco in Geneva, a subsidiary of Lukoil still go unanswered. Either the company has closed the office, or has put a moratorium on inquiries.

There is little point to continue giving historical Rosneft or Lukoil prices for the Turkish market. Tupras prices for Group I oils are unchanged for December.

Group I

Tupras, ex rack Izmir refinery
Spindle oil: Tl 32,090.00/t plus VAT Tl 8,315.44/t
SN150: Tl 27,764.00/t plus VAT Tl 7,450.24/t
SN500: Tl 34,443.00/t plus VAT Tl 8,786.04/t
Bright stock: Tl 51,258.00/t plus VAT Tl 12,149.04/t

Sales incur a standard loading charge of Tl 9,487.20/t.

Group II, ex-works from Turkish traders
110N and 220N: no current availabilities
350N: no offers
150N, ex Taiwan or Saudi Arabia: $955/t
500N/600N, ex Taiwan or Saudi Arabia: $1,185/t

Group III

Partly approved, FCA
Tatneft 4 cSt: €933/t (availability in doubt)

Fully approved, CIF Gemlik
From Spain: €1,695/t-€1,725/t

Middle East

The turnaround at the Luberef refinery in Yanbu will finish in around 10 days time. Maintenance is due to completed around Dec. 31. The turnaround is preparatory work related to a new expansion at the refinery, which will include the new production of Group III base oils. The construction of the Group III facility will be integrated into the overall expansion of the refinery.

Luberef has also been re-awarded a supply contract for feedstock for its Jeddah base oil plant, which was scheduled to close next year. This extension will mean that Jeddah will continue to produce two grades of Group I base oil, SN150, and SN500 until 2030.

Group I and Group II base oil cargoes continue to arrive into the UAE from the U.S., South Korea, Thailand and Indonesia. Others are scheduled to arrive during the first week of January, discharging into Fujairah and Hamriyah. Another cargo from the U.S. Gulf coast, believed to be Group II base oil, will discharge in Jebel Ali.

There are still problems for tankers berthing at Hamriyah, with local sources saying that delays up to a week or 10 days are not unusual. This is not limited to base oils but also pertains to petroleum products and chemicals.

Two European traders were looking at possible export cargoes from European sources to the UAE, but economics do not stack up with high freight rates and longer voyage times around the Cape of Good Hope.

An Iranian base oil cargo has sailed from Bandar-e Emam Khomeyni to Haldia, India. The cargo was around 4,500 tons, consisting of premium SN500 from Sepahan refinery. Iranian Group I base oils are transported by road, transitting Iraq, delivering into Syria and Eastern Turkey.

Russian cargoes do not feature in supplies to the UAE, with no cargoes sailing from Limas terminal in Turkey. Prices for base oils Imported into the UAE remain unchanged until the arrival of the new cargoes from the U.S. Gulf coast.

Group I, CIF/CFR UAE ports
SN150: $885/t-$920/t
SN500: $940/t-$965/t

Group I cargoes are being purchased from traders based in the U.S. and in Switzerland but also directly from producers in Thailand, most of whom have representation in UAE.

Group II FCA or RTW UAE and Oman, unchanged 
110N, 150N and 220N: $1,285/t-$1,325/t
600N: $1,395/t-$1,420/t

Group II base oils are imported into UAE from a number of  sources in the Red Sea, the U.S., South Korea and Singapore and are being resold FCA UAE, or on a truck-delivered basis throughout UAE and Oman. The high ends of the ranges refer to material being delivered by RTW in UAE and into northern Oman.

Group III, FCA Hamriyah or RTW UAE and Oman, unchanged
4 cSt: $1,225/t
6 cSt: $1,235/t
8 cSt: $1,255/t

Middle East Gulf Group III base oils produced in Al Ruwais and Sitra and are invariably delivered by sea into Hamriyah, Sharjah port and Jebel Ali in UAE. The ranges of Group III prices include a reseller margin of around $90/t covering storage, handling, insurance and a margin. RTW deliveries from distributors can incur an additional charge of $20/t-$55/t, depending on delivery location and quantity.

Netbacks for Group III base oils loaded ex Sitra, Bahrain, and Al Ruwais, UAE, for distributor sales in Europe, the U.S., India and China are maintained at $1,065/t-$1,085/t for 4, 6 and 8 cSt grades.

Netbacks for gas-to-liquids Group III+ base oils ex Ras Laffan, Qatar, remain at $1,085/t-$1,100/t. Levels are indications only, since there are no distributors involved, and the product is mainly retained by Shell affiliates for in-house blending.

Middle East Gulf Group III netbacks are assessed using selling prices in known markets minus estimated marketing costs, margins, handling, storage and freight.

Africa

There are still availabilities from a Spanish source, but no takers are reported to be interested in the quantities available. The supplier does not have the full slate of grades, although indications are for all grades – SN150, SN600 and bright stock 150.

The additional large base oil cargo has loaded out of Rotterdam and Fawley, U.K., for Durban, South Africa. It had been anticipated that a cargo of around 19,000 tons of all types of base oil would load before year end for South Africa.

One trader who specializes in procuring Russian cargoes is reported to have a 10,000-ton cargo en route for Apapa port in Lagos, but the origin is not yet announced. More information will be sought on the source.

Another trader who also has another 10,000-ton parcel on the high seas is meanwhile canvassing the Nigerian market with low prices without having the back-up of a physical supply in their hands. They appear to stimulate interest from buyers then approach sources to investigate if they can make supply options work into Nigeria.

Prices being discussed are based around $840/t for SN150, $ 900/t for SN500 and $1,030/t for SN900.

Three cargoes are currently on the water or nearly finished loading for Nigeria, including a large 18,000-ton cargo ex U.S., all of which will tide over the Nigerian market during the busy time approaching.

One anomaly appears to be a potential shortage of SN900, which has noticeable price differential over SN500, and at the higher price receivers are unwilling to countenance purchasing this grade. The price differential between SN900 and SN500 may continue to be problematic until bright stock prices fall to levels that yield a price for blended SN900 around $50/t-$60/t higher than SN500.

Nigeria is quiet now and will remain so until after the festive period.

Bid numbers from buyers are at $825/t for SN150, $900/t for SN500 and $1,030/t for SN900, on the basis CFR Apapa.

The black market exchange rate for the Nigerian naira was NGN 1,461 to the dollar Monday.

Russian base oils are not currently available in Apapa but are still quoted for comparative purposes in efforts to beat down prices for what is available.

Group I

Russian origin (not available)
SN150: $825/t
SN500: $895/t
SN900: $985/t

U.S. Origin
SN150: $840/t
SN500: $900/t
SN900: $1,030/t

Ray Masson is director of Pumacrown Ltd., a trader and broker of petroleum products in London, U.K. Contact him directly at pumacrown@email.com.

Lubes’n’Greases shall not be liable for commercial decisions based on the contents of this report.

Archived base oil price reports can be found through this link: https://www.lubesngreases.com/category/base-stocks/other/base-oil-pricing-report/

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