While base oil and lubricant demand in some countries such as India was expected to improve ahead of an important religious festival in October, economic uncertainties, trade tensions and political turmoil in countries such as Thailand, South Korea and Japan dampened activities in certain economic segments. The Thai Constitutional Court suspended Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra from office over a leaked phone call with former Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen back in early July. The call had been related to a border conflict between Thailand and Cambodia in May, and the fallout had affected segments such as manufacturing and tourism. Concerns about the economic impact of recently imposed tariffs on South Korean and Japanese exports to the U.S. also weighed on market sentiment, as both countries are among the largest exporters of automobiles to the U.S. India was also bearing its share of the tariff consternation as U.S. President Trump imposed a 50% levy on all Indian imports.

Group I
The API Group I segment has been displaying slightly more activity this week as some buyers were hoping to replenish stocks and at least a couple of suppliers have come to the market with fresh offers. However, buyers’ price ideas did not quite match sellers’ expectations, and deals were difficult to conclude. The start-up of the ExxonMobil Singapore Resid Upgrade last month, which will bring an extra-heavy Group II cut to the market with similar characteristics to bright stock, was also expected to be a factor in the coming months, although its impact was still limited.

Most Group I supplies are currently produced in Southeast Asia and Japan, and there had been tight conditions until early August because of permanent plant shutdowns in the region and turnarounds being completed at a number of refineries. However, with those programs now being completed, several more spot cargoes have emerged, with the heavy grades in particular seeing increased availability.

There were reports of both Thai Lube and Pertamina offering Group I spot cargoes for September/October shipments. Last week, the Thai producer offered some Group I SN 150, SN500 and bright stock volumes for loading between Sept. 25 and Oct. 25. The SN150 lot was understood to have been available at $1,150 per metric ton FCA Thailand; the SN500 cargo at around $1,000/t FCA and the bright stock parcel at $1,410/t FCA, with a requirement to co-load it with the SN500. The offers were heard to be valid until Sept. 10, but it could not be ascertained if any transactions had been concluded.

The Indonesian producer has offered flexibag volumes of SN130 and bright stock, totaling about 2,500 tons, through a tender that closed on Sept. 15. No results were available by the publication deadline.

Participants noted that the SN500 grade had been increasingly exposed to downward pressure because of growing supplies, and that this grade was also competing with its Group II counterparts, which have been offered at attractive prices. Availability of the light-vis SN150 and bright stock has been slightly more scarce and prices were holding.

A couple of cargoes involving bright stock were reported during the week, with one lot heard concluded at $1,390/t ex-tank Singapore and a second lot fetching $1,450/t ex-tank Singapore, both for September shipment. However, the second parcel was considered a one-off deal and not deemed representative of current market discussions.

In China, buyers sought to meet demand through domestic products and Group II cuts whenever these were available at competitive prices. Group I production in China is more limited and the heavy-viscosity grades remain in deficit, particularly bright stock. The turnarounds at the Thai plant and other regional units had curtailed spot supplies moving to China in the previous months as well, but since most plants have restarted, additional products were on offer.

At the same time, in an atypical move, a Chinese producer has offered some Group I SN500 cargoes combined with Group II 150N volumes for export through a tender that was extended until Sept. 11. Group I exports from China are not very common, but they do occur when the market is oversupplied, or Chinese buyers’ bids do not meet producers’ expectations. Additional volumes were expected to be available in October.

In India, demand has started to show signs of picking up, but availability was still largely expected to be balanced against requirements. Buying activity has started to improve following several months of subdued trading due to the monsoons, but ongoing heavy rains were limiting purchases in some areas. Appetite for bright stock was expected to strengthen as demand for lubricants from the industrial and heavy-duty segments was anticipated to rise ahead of the Diwali festival in mid-October, and this grade was still deemed fairly tight in the region. The Group I SN500 was under pressure because of competition with the Group II heavy-viscosity cut, which was more readily available at attractive prices.

A planned one-month turnaround at Chennai Petroleum’s plant in Chennai that is slated to start in mid-September was expected to tighten domestic supplies.

Some Group I availability from the U.S. has emerged as plants have resumed full production, and this helped ease concerns about tight supplies due to the more limited supplies from other origins such as Iran.

Group II

More plentiful Group II supplies in the region have led to reduced offer levels for the heavy viscosity grades, while prices for the light grades were fairly steady. The heavier cuts were more available given that producers favored their output due to refinery economics. Buying appetite for large cargoes was subdued as buyers preferred to commit to flexibag volumes to avoid the risk that prices might change in the coming weeks as supplies were expected to grow.

Another sign of lengthening supplies and lackluster demand from the usual consumers in Asia was the fact that a Taiwanese Group II cargo was offered for possible shipment to Europe as exports from the sole Taiwanese producer to other countries in Asia have reportedly slipped.

In China, there was still keen buying interest for Group II 150N and this kept prices fairly steady. Conversely, abundant 500N/600N supplies, both of domestic product as well as imports, exerted pressure on prices. A weaker Chinese currency, the yuan, also made import prices less competitive this week. Nevertheless, additional imported cargoes were anticipated to be arriving over the next couple of weeks, with distributors adjusting offers down for imports of both the light and heavy grades.

With China having built substantial Group II capacity over the last ten years, domestic availability has grown and this was placing pressure on pricing, particularly given that demand has not been robust.

In India, there were expectations that demand for base oils would be inching up following a lackluster period during the rainy season. South Korean and U.S. suppliers were anticipated to look for export opportunities in India. Additional cargoes were likely to come into the market in the U.S. in October once the peak hurricane season ends. There were also expectations of increased availability from Taiwan. However, a South Korean producer may be lured into supplying products to regions that were offering better margins such as the Middle East.

At the same time, supply levels at Indian domestic plants were anticipated to increase, following expansions that will be completed in the last quarter of the year, and this might bring downward price pressure too.

Group III
Supply and demand was deemed balanced to slightly long in the Group III segment and prices were reported as steady to soft from the previous week, depending on the grade.

While most Group III prices were reported within the published ranges, at least one producer’s prices carried a premium because of its full approvals and ability to offer global supply from multiple production sites. The producer’s lowest prices for all grades were above the high end of the published FOB Asia ranges. The published ranges may be adjusted in the coming weeks pending further market input.

Volumes of the 4 cSt and 8 cSt grades from a South Korean producer were heard to be more limited due to reduced production levels, but given soft demand, prices have come under pressure.

There have also been fewer spot cargoes available from the Middle East, as Bapco completed a maintenance program at its plant in Bahrain in late July. The producer was heard to be focusing on term commitments this month and had little to no product for spot shipments, according to sources. However, Bapco was expected to start offering spot volumes in October. This could not be confirmed with the producer directly.

Adnoc completed a turnaround earlier in the year but was also heard to be offering limited spot supplies.

Spot availability from Malaysia was also curtailed because the producer was focusing on fulfilling an increase in term requirements, according to sources.

In China, competitive action between domestic producers and foreign suppliers was ongoing, with buyers preferring to secure cargoes from the local suppliers when specifications were met and prices were more competitive. The fact that local shipments would take less time to arrive was an added incentive.

In India, Group III prices were exposed to downward pressure because a South Korean supplier, which does not regularly offer spot cargoes to India, has lowered its offer levels. Some availability was also heard from a Chinese producer. Additional domestic product was expected to be introduced after national oil company Indian Oil Corp.’s expansion of its Group III plant in Haldia, scheduled for the fourth quarter. While it may take a while for the market to absorb the added volumes, increased domestic availability was expected to place pressure on imports as well.

Shipping
4,500-metric ton cargo was discussed for shipment from Yeosu, South Korea, to Haiphong, Vietnam, Oct. 5-10
1,650-ton lot was quoted for shipment from Onsan, South Korea, to Merak, Indonesia, in the second half of September
2,000-ton cargo was anticipated to load in Mailiao, Taiwan, for Port Klang, Malaysia, Sept. 25-30
700-ton parcel was on the table for loading in Onsan to Bangkok, Thailand, in September.
4,000-ton cargo was discussed for shipment from Mailiao, Taiwan, to Hamriyah in September.
3,500-ton parcel was expected to be shipped from Pyeongtaek, South Korea, to Chennai, India, Oct. 10-2

The global base oil supply and demand balance has started to ease as a number of turnarounds have been completed and plants have been restarted, although reduced output at a few units, together with permanent closures over the last few years, may continue to crimp supplies in some base oil segments. Turnarounds that took place earlier in the year are still listed below as they may have impacted base oil pricing at the time of completion and beyond.

Group I
Chennai Petroleum has scheduled a turnaround at its Group I plant in Chennai, India, in mid-September for approximately one month.
Thai Lube Base Oil’s Group I unit in Sriracha, Thailand, was shut for 45 days from mid-July to late August.
PetroChina’s Dalian refinery began a permanent shutdown in 2023. The base oils unit closed in late 2024, with full closure expected by July 2025. Inventory clearance was scheduled by the end of August.
CNPC’s Fushun plant in Liaoning is expected to increase Group I production to offset the Dalian closure. Bright stock capacity was estimated at 60,000 tons per year.
IRPC’s Group I plant in Thailand, offline for maintenance in May, has resumed operations.
In Japan, Group I supply remains tight after extended shutdowns at Idemitsu’s Chiba unit, which was completed at the end of July/early August, and Cosmo Oil’s Yokkaichi unit.
Eneos completed maintenance at its Kainan (May-June) and Mizushima B (Feb.-May) plants. Mizushima A is scheduled for maintenance in October.
Two Eneos Group I plants were permanently closed in recent years.
HPCL in India restarted its Group I unit in late April/early May following a partial shutdown.
CPCL had a one-week maintenance at its Chennai Group I plant in April.
Sinopec completed a two-month turnaround at its Gaoqiao Group I and II plant in May.
Pertamina’s Group I plant in Cilacap, Indonesia, underwent maintenance from mid-January to **late February/**early March.

Group II
ExxonMobil has completed an expansion of its Singapore Group II unit and commenced on-spec production in August.
Bharat Petroleum delayed a brief turnaround to October from earlier in the year.
Formosa Petrochemical has postponed a scheduled turnaround and catalyst change at its Mailiao, Taiwan, plant from the fourth quarter of 2025 to 2026.
BPCL completed maintenance at its Group II plant in Mumbai, India, in March, but there were reports of ongoing reduced output that was expected to last through August, with a short shutdown planned that month.
HPCL reportedly conducted a 45-day turnaround at its Group II trains that started in May and was completed in July after a delayed restart.
Excel Paralubes has scheduled a turnaround at its Lake Charles, Louisiana, U.S., plant in October. The plant has been running at reduced rates, limiting spot availabilities in the U.S.
GS Caltex completed a 45-day turnaround at its Group II/III unit in Yeosu, South Korea, in late February to May, which had limited spot supply.
Hyundai Oilbank Shell Base Oil cut run rates at its Daesan plant from March due to feedstock limitations; increased rates in late May.
An unplanned outage at CNOOC’s Group II unit in Huizhou affected China’s Q2 availability.
Sinopec’s Gaoqiao plant turnaround ended in May; its Jinan Group II unit was shut for a month in April.
Luberef shut down its Group I and II units in Yanbu, Saudi Arabia, for two weeks in Q2 for maintenance and catalyst change.
Chevron restarted its Group II plant in Pascagoula, Mississippi, U.S., after a four-week turnaround in late May.
Motiva restarted operations in June after a three-week turnaround at its Port Arthur, Texas, U.S., hydrocracker beginning in late May.

Group III
SK Enmove completed a partial turnaround at its Ulsan Group III plant in late June; production on other trains continued.
Adnoc shut its Group II/III plant in Ruwais, UAE, for 2-3 weeks in early May; operations have resumed.
BAPCO began a turnaround and catalyst change at its Group III plant in Sitra, Bahrain, in May and completed it in late July.
Hainan Handi had an extended shutdown at its plant in China, starting in mid-June.
Sinopec was expected to restart its Group III plant in Yanshan in late July.

Crude
Crudeoil futures rose in early trade on Monday as analysts considered geopolitical risks such as additional sanctions on Russian oil exports and reduced output due to Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries against expectations of global oil oversupply.
Brent November 2025 futures were trading at $67.26 per barrel on Sept. 15, up from $66.80/bbl on Sept. 8 (ICE Futures Europe).
Dubai crude futures (Platts) for October 2025 settled at $68.14/bbl on Sept. 12, up from $65.84/bbl for front-month futures on Sept. 5 (CME).

Base Oils
Spot base oil prices were steady to soft, with values for some grades slipping on growing supply and weaker demand.
The price ranges portrayed below reflect discussions, bids and offers, as well as deals and published prices widely regarded as benchmarks for the region.

Ex-tank Singapore
Group I solvent neutral 150 was assessed at $780/t–$820/t
SN500 was down by $10-20/t at $1,020/t–$1,060/t
Bright stock prices were unchanged at $1,380/t–$1,420/t
Group II 150N was steady at $840/t–$880/t
500N edged down by $10/t to $1,040/t–$1,080/t

FOB Asia
Group I SN150 was holding at $670/t–$710/t
SN500 was assessed down by $20/t at $840/t–$880/t
Bright stock also slipped by $20/t to $1,230/t–$1,270/t

Group II 150N was steady at $710/t–$750/t
500N was down by $10/t at $870/t–$910/t

Group III grades were stable to soft:
4 cSt heard at $1,080/t–$1,120/t
6 cSt moved down by $10/t to $1,070/t–$1,110/t
8 cSt was also lower by $10/t at $940/t–$980/t

Gabriela Wheeler can be reached at gabriela@LubesnGreases.com

Lubes’n’Greases shall not be liable for commercial decisions based on the contents of this report.