With activity in several countries winding down for the Lunar New Year holidays, trading was largely subdued in Asia and prices underwent few fluctuations, with the exception perhaps of bright stock, which attracted renewed buying interest and prices moving up. Base oil supply conditions as observed during the previous week prevailed, with the heavy grades still exposed to downward pressure given ample availability and lackluster demand. Some buyers had worked down inventories ahead of the holidays and were expected to replenish stocks in late February or early March.
Automotive lubricant consumption in China was anticipated to have seen an uptick ahead of the holidays, as record travel volumes were expected in the country during the week. A record 9.5 billion passenger trips were expected during this year’s Lunar New Year or Spring Festival travel surge, according to China’s National Development and Reform Commission. While many will travel by plane or rail, road transport was anticipated to be the most popular mode, making up 80% of the journeys, with a growing number of drivers opting for electric vehicles, media reports suggested. The record travel surge was anticipated despite China’s economy facing headwinds from a property market crisis, as well as sluggish consumption and high youth unemployment. Additionally, numerous businesses and factories shut down for several days for the festivities, and major disruptions to supply chains were anticipated, starting in mid-January through early March.
The holiday period meant that trading floors were closed in Shanghai, Seoul and Taipei on Monday, with Hong Kong and Singapore closing half a day as well. The United States observed the Presidents’ Day holiday on February 16 too. While millions of people were away from business, crude oil trading did not take a break, with prices largely swayed by ongoing tensions between the U.S. and Iran and potential negotiations taking place later this week.
Group I
In the API Group I segment, supply of the heavy grades continued to outpace demand, although bright stock was considered an exception in that consumption was fairly robust in some segments and spot prices were steady-to-firm. While discussions were thin during the week due to the Lunar New Year holidays celebrated in several nations, there were expectations that improved buying interest would emerge following the festivities, particularly as blenders start to prepare inventories for the spring season.
Fresh offers from a Thai Group I producer for March shipment have not been reported. The supplier had placed several small cargoes of Group I SN500 and bright stock on the market for February shipment during the previous few weeks and it was reported to be sold out for this month, while it appeared to have halted negotiations for March cargoes.
Similarly, there was no fresh offer heard from the Indonesian producer who had recently sold a few small cargoes of SN130, SN250 and bright stock. Group I spot supplies from Singapore were adequate-to-snug and prices were therefore mostly steady, with the exception of bright stock, which edged up slightly on tightening availability.
In China, the Lunar New Year holidays brought most trading to a standstill, with discussions not expected to restart until next week. Not only are many businesses closed, but deliveries are impacted by logistics and shipping disruptions during several days as well.
Distributors were expected to have cargoes available after the holidays, as buying interest had slowed down and demand for the heavy grades had not been particularly robust. However, the light grades may continue to be exposed to upward price pressure due to tighter availability. Bright stock prices had been kept steady because distributors were anxious to maintain margins and they expected demand to pick up after the holidays. Additionally, ongoing and upcoming plant shutdowns might tighten supplies moving forward.
In India, prices for the Group I heavy grade were heard to have slipped by $5 per metric ton on a CFR India basis on sluggish demand and plentiful availability. Lower spot offers for some Middle East material was placing downward pressure on pricing, but buyers were hesitant to secure these cargoes due to international sanctions.
Spot availability of the SN150 grade was still limited and demand was healthier than for the heavy grades, which helped support stable pricing. Although some spot offers for imported material continued to circulate, many buyers preferred to secure product from domestic suppliers whenever possible. Domestic prices were reported as generally steady for February transactions.
Group II
Group II prices were largely stable, despite plentiful supplies of the heavy grades. Spot offers from Northeast Asia were slightly strained as one supplier has started to build inventories for an upcoming turnaround, and a second supplier held on to offer levels expecting an uptick in demand following the Lunar New Year holidays in many Asian nations. At least one supplier continued to bundle its offers of the 500N grade with the 150N because of more plentiful supplies of the heavy grade.
In China, the holidays placed a damper on active negotiations, but buyers had not been worried about shortages following the festivities as several South Korean and Taiwanese Group II cargoes were expected in the coming weeks. A domestic producer had lowered prices ahead of the holidays to attract buyers, and there were expectations that other suppliers had been left with plentiful supplies as well, which will likely be put on the market following the festive period.
In India, import prices were steady week on week, with discussions heard to be ongoing. There continues to be stronger buying interest for the light grades, which is helping support prices. Higher feedstock values earlier this month had also propped up all base oil prices. While buyers appeared interested in the light grades, some were hesitant to accept offers that involved sales of the 150N with a requirement to also purchase 500N barrels.
Domestic refiners had so far enjoyed the advantage of being able to process heavily-discounted Russian crude oil, but a recent trade deal between India and the U.S. made it a requirement for Indian refiners to stop importing Russian oil, encouraging them to buy more crude from the Middle East, the U.S. and Venezuela.
Group III
A fairly balanced regional supply and demand situation was keeping most Group III prices steady. Despite the fact that there were no scheduled turnarounds in Asia this month, and plants in Malaysia and Indonesia will only shut down for maintenance at the end of the first half of the year, global Group III supplies seemed to have tightened because of a plant turnaround in Europe and a recent turnaround in the Middle East.
In China, prices remained notionally unchanged on a lack of fresh discussions given the Lunar New Year holidays. While China used to depend solely on Group III imports, new Group III plants have come on stream in the country in recent years, reducing the country’s reliance on imports, while a number of additional projects are planned in the future.
In India, interest in Group III spot cargoes was thin because buyers appeared content to meet requirements through term volumes. Despite subdued buying interest in spot Group III grades, downward pressure was noted on offers for the 6 cSt and 8 cSt grades given plentiful supplies against weaker demand than for the 4 cSt cut. Indian manufacturing operations and auto plants in particular were running well ahead of the end of the fiscal year on March 31, with lubricant demand seeing a boost as a result.
Most Group III prices were reported within the published ranges in Asia, but at least one producer’s prices carry a premium because of its full approvals and ability to offer global supply from multiple production sites. The producer’s lowest prices for all grades were above the high end of the published FOB Asia ranges.
Shipping
- A 6,000-metric-ton cargo was discussed for shipment from South Korea to the United Arab Emirates, Feb. 10-20.
- About 6,000-8,000 tons were mentioned for lifting on the U.S. Gulf to Mumbai, India, Feb. 7-25.
- A 3,400-ton parcel was mentioned for shipment from Malacca, Malaysia, to West Coast India, end February.
- A 10,000-metric ton cargo was mentioned for possible liftting in Ulsan/Yeosu, South Korea, to Mumbai and Hamriyah, United Arab Emirates, mid-February
- A 4,000-ton lot was quoted for shipment from Taiwan to Pakistan in mid-March.
- A 2,000-ton parcel was on the table for lifting in Yeosu to Rugao, China, March 3-10.
- About 2,000 tons were mentioned for shipment from to Onsan, South Korea, to Jingjiang, China, mid-February.
- A 700-ton lot was also expected to be lifted from Onsan to Nantong, China, mid-February.
- A 3,000-ton parcel was quoted for shipment from Yeosu to Tianjin, China, March 1-10.
- A 10,000 cargo was discussed for shipment from Ulsan/Yeosu, to Hamriyah, Feb. 15-20.
- A 4,000-ton lot was likely to be shipped from South Korea to Callao, Peru, second half February.
- A 3,000-ton cargo was also on the table for lifting in Ulsan, South Korea, to Guayaquil, Ecuador, February.
- About 5,000 tons were expected to be shipped from Taiwan to the UAE, end February.
- A 1,000-ton cargo was discussed for lifting in Onsan to Vietnam, March 8-12.
Production
A number of turnarounds have already been announced for 2026. The latest information is provided below, along with turnarounds that took place in the second half of 2025 as they may have impacted base oil pricing at the time of completion and beyond.
Group I
- Luberef scheduled a 45-day turnaround at its plant in Yanbu, Saudi Arabia, from mid-November until December 2025. The unit produces Group I, Group II and Group III base oils. The plant underwent an expansion in 2017. The company had shut down its plants in Yanbu and Jeddah for about a week in Q2 2025.
- Luberef has secured a new feedstock supply agreement for the company’s Jeddah facility. The facility had been expected to close by mid-2026, but the new supply agreement will allow it to continue operations beyond 2026. As a result, the company will maintain its current production capacity of 275,000 tons per year of Group I base oils. With the completion of the Growth-II Project in Yanbu, Luberef’s total production capacity will reach 1.53 million t/y, making it the only supplier in the region able to offer Group I, Group II, and Group III base oils.
- Eneos’s Mizushima A underwent maintenance from October to November 2025 in Japan.
- Two Eneos Group I plants were permanently closed in recent years.
- Chennai Petroleum completed a turnaround at its Group I plant in Chennai, India, in September/October 2025 for approximately one month.
- Thai Lube Base Oil’s Group I unit in Sriracha, Thailand, was shut for 45 days from mid-July to second half August 2025.
- PetroChina’s Dalian refinery began a permanent shutdown in 2023. The base oils unit closed in late 2024, with full closure completed in July 2025. Inventory clearance was scheduled by end of August 2025.
- CNPC’s Fushun plant in Liaoning was expected to increase Group I production to offset the Dalian closure. Bright stock capacity is estimated at 60,000 t/y.
Group II
- Hyundai Oilbank Shell Base Oils plans to shut down its plant in Daesan, South Korea, in late March/April 2026 for approximately 45 days.
- CNOOC has scheduled a turnaround at its Taizhou plant in the second quarter of 2026.
- ExxonMobil has completed a capacity expansion at its Singapore Resid Upgrade Project and commenced on-spec production in August 2025. The producer has started to offer an ultra-heavy Group II grade with similar characteristics to bright stock. The project is an upgrade of the company’s integrated manufacturing complex, which will allow it to expand large-scale production of its global EHC Group II slate and meet growing demand for high-performance lubricants in the Asia-Pacific region, the company said.
- Indian Oil Corp. was understood to have completed a one-month turnaround at its Group II plant in Haldia in November 2025. The producer also completed an expansion of its Group III capacity in Haldia in December.
- Formosa Petrochemical postponed a scheduled turnaround and catalyst change at its Mailiao, Taiwan, plant from the fourth quarter of 2025 to third quarter of 2026.
- Excel Paralubes completed a scheduled turnaround at its Lake Charles, Louisiana, U.S. plant in October 2025. The plant had been running at reduced rates for most of the year, limiting spot availabilities in the U.S., but a catalyst change has allowed the company to maximize output.
- Motiva restarted operations in June 2025 after a three-week turnaround at its Port Arthur, Texas, U.S., hydrocracker beginning in late May. However, some production issues lingered for several more weeks, reducing the producer’s Group II inventories and tightening Group II spot availability in the second half of 2025.
Group III
- Petronas plans to shut down its Group II/Group III Melaka plant in Malaysia for a turnaround in mid-2026.
- Indian Oil Corp. completed an expansion of its Group III capacity in Haldia and a start-up of the expanded plant was achieved in December 2025.
- The restart of Shanxi Lu’an’s base oil plant following an unplanned shutdown in December should bring more Group III supplies to the market in early 2026.
- A fire at SK-Pertamina’s refinery in Dumai, Indonesia, broke out on October 1, 2025, but was quickly extinguished, with no impact to base oil supply reported. The Dumai Group III base oil plant was shut down for maintenance after the fire and was restarted shortly after. Term supplies were not expected to have been affected. Pertamina also operates a Group I plant in Cilacap, Indonesia. The Dumai refinery is a joint venture between Indonesian state-run Kilang Pertamina Internasional and South Korean producer SK Enmove.
- Sinopec restarted its Group III plant in Yanshan, China, in late July 2025.
Prices
Crude Oil
Crude oil futures were slightly lower in early trading on Monday amid reports that the U.S and Iran had scheduled a second round of nuclear talks for Tuesday, with representatives from Oman serving as mediators.
- Brent April 2026 futures were trading at $67.70 per barrel on February 16, 2026, down from $68.26/bbl for front-month futures on Feb. 9 (ICE Futures Europe).
- Dubai crude futures (Platts) for March 2026 settled at $66.48/bbl on Feb. 13, 2026, down from $67.08/bbl for front-month futures on Feb. 6 (CME).
Base Oils
Spot base oil prices in Asia were steady to firm, with activity slowing down in many nations and downward pressure on the heavy grades still continuing due to ample supplies and sluggish demand. Bright stock prices ex-tank Singapore edged up on tightening supplies.
The price ranges portrayed below reflect discussions, bids and offers, as well as deals and published prices widely regarded as benchmarks for the region.
Ex-tank Singapore
Group I solvent neutral 150 steady at $790/t-$830/t
SN500 held at $860/t-$900/t
Bright stock prices edged up by $10/t to $1,270-$1,310/t
Group II 150N held at $830/t-$870/t
500N assessed unchanged at $900/t-$940/t
FOB Asia
Group I SN150 steady at $660/t-$700/t
SN500 unchanged at $680/t-$720/t
Bright stock prices held at $1,080/t-$1,120/t
Group II 150N stable at $720/t-$760/t
500N held at $750/t-$790/t
Group III grades were steady:
4 cSt heard at $1,090/t-$1,130/t
6 cSt assessed at $1,060/t-$1,100/t
8 cSt held at $900/t-$940/t
Gabriela Wheeler can be reached at gabriela@LubesnGreases.com
Lubes’n’Greases shall not be liable for commercial decisions based on the contents of this report.