One of the countries that was expected to show sustained growth this year was India. The Indian government was heard to be working on its budget for the upcoming fiscal year, which will be presented by Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Feb. 1, with an expansion of infrastructure likely to be a priority, while the prospect of tax changes to bolster investor confidence will also be in focus, Nikkei Asia reported. Additionally, India was expected to embrace more trading partners and distance itself somewhat from the United States. India and the European Union will hold a crucial summit in New Delhi this week, during which they are expected to make a major announcement about a proposed trade pact.

Additionally, ASEAN’s top diplomats were anticipated to converge on the Philippines during the week to discuss regional issues including ongoing South China Sea tensions, the Thailand-Cambodia border crisis and the political chaos in Myanmar.

Meanwhile, base oil market players kept a watchful eye on crude oil prices, as values were swayed by international developments and geopolitical disputes. Crude futures edged up on severe winter weather blanketing many parts of the world, which would increase energy demand. Natural gas prices increased 46% last week, while tensions between the U.S. and Iran fanned concerns about oil supply disruption risks.

Group I

A similar narrative to the one that has been characterizing the API Group I segment persisted, with the heavy grades exposed to downward pressure due to ample supplies and lackluster demand. Prices for the light grades remained steady or edged slightly higher as requirements were healthier and supplies less plentiful. Bright stock occupied a room of its own in that it managed to dodge price revisions because it is still a very sought-after grade and permanent plant closures in recent years have resulted in supply deficits of both bright stock and the SN150.

Additional Group I availability was reported from Southeast Asia in recent weeks, with an Indonesian producer heard to have offered flexi-bag volumes of the light grade, a mid-viscosity grade, and bright stock, and the cargoes attracting buying interest. However, no deal was confirmed by the publishing deadline.

The Thai Group I producer has also offered several small cargoes of Group I SN500 and bright stock over the last few weeks, with small volumes of SN500 and bright stock eliciting some buying appetite, but buyers’ price expectations ostensibly falling short of the offer levels. A small cargo of SN500 for February shipment was reportedly offered at $870 per ton FCA Thailand and bright stock at $1,275/t FCA Thailand, reflecting decreases of $20/t for the SN500 and $10/t for the bright stock from the previous offer, with more buying interest reported for the bright stock than for the SN500.

In China, some buyers have returned to the market to build inventories ahead of the Lunar New Year holidays in mid-February, but remained cautious in terms of volumes because they were concerned about holding stocks that may lose value later. Domestic bright stock prices have been adjusted down on an ex-tank China basis to attract business, but many consumers prefer to delay purchases until after the festivities. Buyers appeared comfortable and not in a rush to secure cargoes as imports from Thailand have been plentiful since last November and domestic supplies were also available.

Group I prices in India followed a similar pattern as in other parts of Asia, with most import indications for the SN500 edging down by $10/t on a CFR India basis on plentiful supplies and lukewarm demand. Bright stock was also adjusted by a similar amount, although it was tighter than the SN500.

Prospects of increased availability from a key Middle East producer who had shut down its plant for a turnaround in November/December and has restarted operations were also seen as a factor impacting purchases, although the producer was not expected to offer much spot supply until it can rebuild inventories as it is also focusing on contractual commitments.

There have also been offers of Iranian Group I product, despite sociopolitical unrest in the country, but buyers are generally more hesitant to purchase these barrels due to international sanctions.

Indian buyers have also been favoring domestic base oils supplies whenever available as prices were competitive and orders involved fewer logistical issues. But domestic Indian refiners continue to face the challenge of having to cut back on discounted Russian oil imports due to international sanctions. While Indian Oil Corp. Ltd. and Bharat Petroleum Corp. Ltd. increased intake of Russian crude in December/January, Reliance Industries completely halted Russian crude oil imports this month. The company’s December volumes were already reduced by 50% compared to November levels, indicating a gradual withdrawal strategy, according to ASX.com.

Group II

The Group II heavy grades continued to be under pressure because availability remained more than adequate and demand has not improved substantially. On the contrary, in a sense, requirements have weakened because some buyers preferred to delay purchases for as long as possible as they see room for prices to fall further.

In China, Group II import volumes from Taiwan have decreased compared to a year ago, but there appeared to be adequate supplies from South Korea, although a South Korean producer has suspended spot offers because it will be building inventories ahead of a turnaround in the first quarter. There have also been some offers of domestic spot supplies that were concluded at slightly higher levels than the previous week, according to sources.

In India, Group II light grades managed to maintain a steady course, but the heavy grades elicited less buying interest as inventories remained ample. Blenders have started to prepare lubricant inventories for the last quarter of the fiscal year, which ends on March 31, and have therefore stepped back into the market to secure base oils, but the light grades saw more buying interest than the heavy grades. Import prices for the Group II 70N and 150N were reported as unchanged from the previous week, but prices for the 500N edged down by $10/t on a CFR India basis.

Group III

The Group III grades seemed to be able hold their ground as suppliers kept their offers firm because they were under little inventory pressure and availability of some grades has tightened. The 4 centiStoke was particularly snug in Southeast Asia, with some sources noting that availability from Malaysia has been particularly scant. This has driven spot offers up from some suppliers, but it remained to be seen whether the steeper levels will be accepted.

In China, domestic prices have inched up because of reduced availability of competitively-priced imports amid sustained demand for the light grades. Middle East and South Korean suppliers were focusing on fulfilling term obligations and had little extra product to offer for spot business.

A number of domestic Group III plants were expected to come on line in China over the next couple of years, including a coal-to-liquids unit along with increased polyalphaolefin and naphthenic base oils capacity, and this was anticipated to exert pressure on values in the future.

In India, Group III spot prices were reported as largely stable as most buyers relied on contract volumes and showed less interest in additional purchases. Demand for Group III grades was likely to continue growing in India given an expected expansion of the car parc as more people will be able to afford a car or motorcycle given government incentives and a growing middle class.

National oil company Indian Oil Corp. was heard to have completed an expansion of its Group III plant in Haldia. The refinery was heard to have shut down in November for maintenance on the existing Group II trains and has started output of Group III cuts.

Most Group III prices were reported within the published ranges in Asia, but at least one producer’s prices carry a premium because of its full approvals and ability to offer global supply from multiple production sites. The producer’s lowest prices for all grades were above the high end of the published FOB Asia ranges. The published ranges may be adjusted in the coming weeks pending further market input.

Shipping

• A 4,000-ton cargo was discussed for prompt shipment from Yeosu, South Korea, to Yanbu, Saudi Arabia.
• A 5,000-ton lot was mentioned for possible shipment from Rayong, Thailand, to Hamriyah, United Arab Emirates (UAE), at the end of Jan.
• A 2,000-ton parcel was quoted for shipment from Thailand to West Coast India in the first half of February.
• About 5,000 tons were expected to be shipped from Taiwan to the UAE at the end of Feb.
• Approximately 4,000 to 6,000 tons were discussed for prompt shipment from Singapore to Karachi, Pakistan and/or Hamriyah
• Approximately 13,500 tons were anticipated to be shipped from Yanbu/Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, to Mumbai, India, between Jan. 24-30.
• A 3,600-metric ton cargo was on the table for shipment from Qatar to West Coast India between January 18-20.
• A second cargo of 6,300 tons was also mentioned to cover the same route, with the lifting expected between Jan. 21-22.

Production

A number of turnarounds have already been announced for 2026. The latest information is provided below, along with turnarounds that took place in the second half of 2025 as they may have impacted base oil pricing at the time of completion and beyond.

Group I

• Luberef scheduled a 45-day turnaround at its plant in Yanbu, Saudi Arabia, from mid-November until December 2025. The unit produces Group I, Group II and Group III base oils. The plant underwent an expansion in 2017. The company had shut down its plants in Yanbu and Jeddah for about a week in Q2 2025.
• Luberef has secured a new feedstock supply agreement for the company’s Jeddah facility. The facility had been expected to close by mid-2026, but the new supply agreement will allow it to continue operations beyond 2026. As a result, the company will maintain its current production capacity of 275,000 tons per year of Group I base oils. With the completion of the Growth-II Project in Yanbu, Luberef’s total production capacity will reach 1.53 million tons per year, making it the only supplier in the region able to offer Group I, Group II, and Group III base oils.
• Eneos’s Mizushima A underwent maintenance from October to November in Japan.
• Two Eneos Group I plants were permanently closed in recent years.
• Chennai Petroleum completed a turnaround at its Group I plant in Chennai, India, in September/October for approximately one month.
• Thai Lube Base Oil’s Group I unit in Sriracha, Thailand, was shut for 45 days from mid-July to second half August.
• PetroChina’s Dalian refinery began a permanent shutdown in 2023. The base oils unit closed in late 2024, with full closure by July 2025. Inventory clearance was scheduled by end of August 2025.
• CNPC’s Fushun plant in Liaoning was expected to increase Group I production to offset the Dalian closure. Bright stock capacity is estimated at 60,000 t/y.

Group II

• ExxonMobil has completed a capacity expansion at its Singapore Resid Upgrade Project and commenced on-spec production in August 2025. The producer has started to offer an ultra-heavy Group II grade with similar characteristics to bright stock. The project is an upgrade of the company’s integrated manufacturing complex, which will allow it to expand large-scale production of its global EHC Group II slate and meet growing demand for high-performance lubricants in the Asia-Pacific region, the company said.
• Indian Oil Corp. was understood to have completed a one-month turnaround at its Group II plant in Haldia in November 2025. The producer also completed an expansion of its Group III capacity in Haldia in December.
• Hyndai Oilbank/Shell plans to shut down its Daesan, South Korea, Group II plant for a routine turnaround that will last a month and a half in late March/early April 2026.
• Formosa Petrochemical postponed a scheduled turnaround and catalyst change at its Mailiao, Taiwan, plant from the fourth quarter of 2025 to third quarter of 2026.
• Hyundai Oilbank Shell Base Oils plans to shut down its plant in Daesan, South Korea, in April 2026 for approximately 45 days.
• HPCL reportedly conducted a 45-day turnaround at its Group II trains from May until July 2025 in India, following some delays.
• Excel Paralubes completed a scheduled turnaround at its Lake Charles, Louisiana, U.S. plant in October 2025. The plant had been running at reduced rates for most of the year, limiting spot availabilities in the U.S., but a catalyst change has allowed the company to maximize output.
• Motiva restarted operations in June 2025 after a three-week turnaround at its Port Arthur, Texas, U.S., hydrocracker beginning in late May. However, some production issues lingered for several more weeks, reducing the producer’s Group II inventories and tightening Group II spot availability in the second half of 2025.

Group III

• Petronas plans to shut down its Group II/Group III Melaka plant in Malaysia for a turnaround in mid-2026.
• Indian Oil Corp. completed an expansion of its Group III capacity in Haldia and astart-up of the expanded plant was achieved in December 2025.
• The restart of Shanxi Lu’an’s base oil plant following an unplanned shutdown in December should bring more Group III supplies to the market in early 2026.
• A fire at SK-Pertamina’s refinery in Dumai, Indonesia, broke out on October 1, 2025, but was quickly extinguished, with no impact to base oil supply reported. The Dumai Group III base oil plant was shut down for maintenance after the fire and was restarted shortly after. Term supplies were not expected to have been affected. Pertamina also operates a Group I plant in Cilacap, Indonesia. The Dumai refinery is a joint venture between Indonesian state-run Kilang Pertamina Internasional and South Korean producer SK Enmove.
• Sinopec restarted its Group III plant in Yanshan, China, in late July 2025.

Prices

Crude Oil
Crude oil futures jumped on Monday after climbing more than 2% in the previous session on output disruptions at key production areas in the U.S. because of winter storms.

• Brent March 2026 futures were trading at $66.02 per barrel on January 26, 2026, up from $63.33/bbl for front-month futures on Jan. 19 (ICE Futures Europe).
• Dubai crude futures (Platts) for February 2026 settled at $64.06/bbl on Jan. 23, 2026, up from $63.21/bbl for front-month futures on Jan. 16 (CME).

Base Oils
Spot base oil prices in Asia were steady to soft, with activity still muted and downward pressure emerging due to ample supplies and sluggish demand.

The price ranges portrayed below reflect discussions, bids and offers, as well as deals and published prices widely regarded as benchmarks for the region.

Ex-tank Singapore
Group I solvent neutral 150 was higher by $10/t at $790/t-$830/t
SN500 was lower by $20/t at $870/t-$910/t
Bright stock prices fell by $10/t to $1,260-$1,300/t 
Group II 150N was firmer by $10/t at $830/t-$870/t
500N was down by $10/t at $920/t-$960/t

FOB Asia
Group I SN150 was steady at $670/t-$710/t
SN500 fell by $10/t to $690/t-$730/t
Bright stock prices were holding at $1,090/t-$1,130/t

Group II 150N was stable at $720/t-$760/t
500N was assessed down by $10/t at $750/t-$790/t

Group III grades were higher by $10/t, except for the 8 cSt which was steady:
4 cSt was heard at $1,090/t-$1,130/t
6 cSt was assessed at $1,060/t-$1,100/t
8 cSt was holding at $900/t-$940/t

Gabriela Wheeler can be reached at gabriela@LubesnGreases.com

Lubes’n’Greases shall not be liable for commercial decisions based on the contents of this report.