One of the main developments that has placed downward pressure on crude oil prices was the incursion of United States military forces into Venezuela, which led to the capture of Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro and his wife on Jan. 3. U.S. president Donald Trump also ordered the seizure of several Venezuelan oil tankers and took control of the country’s massive oil reserves, promising that he would get American companies to invest billions of dollars to refurbish the country’s ravaged oil industry.

Oil traded lower for most of the week as investors digested the news that the U.S. would import up to two billion worth of Venezuelan crude – a move that would increase supplies to the world’s largest oil consumer. The additional supply weighed on prices because analysts already expected the global crude market to be oversupplied.

But oil futures rose on Friday as protests in Iran continued to escalate, fanning concerns about potential supply disruptions from one of the biggest oil producers in the Middle East. Over the weekend, Iran appeared to be cut off from the rest of the world after the government blacked out the internet to curb the swelling protests.

Group I
Despite a fairly steady upward price trend observed in 2025, API Group I prices were exposed to downward pressure due to improved supply levels, particularly of the heavy grades. With several Group I plants having been shuttered permanently, and demand remaining robust from downstream applications such as industrial, marine, railway, and heavy-duty applications, prices had been able to defend their positions for most of the year. However, demand declined in the last quarter, while supply levels remained plentiful, leading to downward price revisions for most Group I base oils.

Bright stock was able to skirt some of the downtrend, but ultimately succumbed to the pressure because of a seasonal drop in consumption and prospects of increased supply of an ultra-heavy Group II grade from ExxonMobil’s Singapore Resid Upgrade Project in Singapore, which became commercially available in Q4 2025.

Group I availability from Southeast Asia had grown in the last few weeks of the year, driving offers down. The Thai Group I producer who had offered several small cargoes of Group I SN500 and bright stock in December had adjusted prices down on consecutive occasions, with small volumes of SN500 and bright stock offered again last week for late January shipment. A small cargo of SN500 was reportedly offered at $890 per metric ton FCA Thailand and bright stock at $1,290/t FCA Thailand, with prices valid through Jan. 9. The bright stock was understood to have elicited more buying interest than the SN500. These prices show downward adjustments compared to the previous offer at $920/t FCA Thailand for the SN500 and at $1,300/t FCA Thailand for bright stock.

It was heard that there had also been Group I availability coming to the market from Indonesia, with Pertamine closing a sales tender on Jan. 8. According to sources, the offer included flexibag volumes of SN130 and bright stock priced ex-works Jakarta, and also about 2,000-2,500 tons of bulk bright stock on an FOB Cilacap basis.

In China, Group I demand was anticipated to remain sluggish over the next few weeks, but could see an uptick as blenders will likely start to build inventories for the busy spring production cycle. Chinese demand could also be driven by a need to replenish inventories ahead of the Lunar New Year holidays celebrated in mid-February.

In India, there were expectations of improved buying interest over the next few weeks as stocks have likely been drawn down and lubricant demand was anticipated to continue growing as India’s vehicle fleet and industrial output continue to expand. Some of this demand was expected to be fulfilled with domestic base oils, but these were not deemed sufficient to meet all requirements, so imports were anticipated to continue playing an important role. Imports of the SN150 grade saw small downward adjustments of about $5/t on a CFR India basis, while the SN500 and bright stock slipped by $10/t.

Domestic suppliers adjusted SN70 and SN150 prices up in December, but decreased the price of SN500 and bright stock. January prices were expected to be communicated in the next few days. Buying interest for bright stock was anticipated to be slightly more moderate than for the light grades as there was a general perception that the heavy grade was more readily available.

With a key Middle East refinery resuming production in December, there were expectations of increased availability in the coming weeks, although the producer was heard to be restraining spot supplies for the time being as it is rebuilding inventories.

Group II
As has been the case over the last few weeks, the heavier grades continued to be under pressure because of more than adequate supplies in the market, versus lackluster demand. Some buyers continued to hold out for lower prices before concluding business.

“With weak feedstock costs and normal base oil supply, we do expect base oil prices have the room to drop,” a source commented, reflecting overall buyer sentiment in the region. Meanwhile, fresh South Korean offers for February cargoes were anticipated to be communicated during this week amid concerns about crude oil price volatility.

Chinese buyers’ appetite for the light grades appeared to have improved, particularly on worries about reported delays in Taiwanese shipments. Consumers’ need to replenish stocks before the market idles activities ahead of the Lunar New Year in mid- February also provided impetus to fresh offers from domestic suppliers. Importers kept prices steady on expectations that buyers would return to the market to secure cargoes before the suspension of activities in mid-February.

In Taiwan, the sole Group II producer, Formosa Petrochemical, was heard to have kept its domestic list prices for the 70N and 150N grades for January unchanged from December, but reduced the price of the 500N by New Taiwan Dollar (NT$) 0.64 per liter, in line with current market trends. The producer had increased domestic list prices of the light grades in December and had also lowered the heavy grade. (NT$1.00  = U.S.$0.03)

In India, buyers prefer to secure local product whenever feasible to avoid transportation and logistical risks. Domestic suppliers lowered January list prices for the 500N on continuing downward pressure. Import prices for the Group II 70N grade were adjusted down because of a recent softening in feedstock prices, but the 150N and the 500N were steady.

Indian Oil Corp. completed a turnaround on its Group II trains at its base oils plant in Haldia in November, and was heard to have started Group III production at the expanded facilities.

Group III

Largely balanced supply and demand conditions amid subdued market activity supported steady Group III pricing in Asia. While there were plentiful supplies expected to be offered from South Korea, some restrictions to accessibility of supplies from Malaysia persisted as the producer was focusing on domestic term business. In general, Group III prices were anticipated to remain exposed to downward pressure due to ample global availability.

In China, local producers continued to do their best to protect or gain market share, particularly as more domestic plants were expected to come on line, including a coal-to-liquids unit, in 2026-2027, along with increased polyalphaolefin and naphthenic base oils capacity. Despite the additional domestic products, Group III consumers were anticipated to continue buying from their regular foreign suppliers under contract because of approvals and long-term supply relationships, sources reiterated.

Increased domestic production as national oil company Indian Oil Corp. was also expected to compete with imports in India as the producer has completed an expansion of its Group III plant in Haldia. The refinery was heard to have shut down in November for maintenance on the existing Group II trains and has started output of Group III cuts, although they have not been commercially available, according to sources, and will be kept for the refiner’s downstream operations for the time being.

The Group III segment has the potential to grow steadily in the next few years in India as the vehicle parc expands given a growing middle class, along with heightened industrialization and an increase in the number of data centers, which will likely require more Group III oils for immersion cooling fluids.

Group III prices in India were reported as unchanged from a week ago on subdued activity, but trading was anticipated to pick up in the coming weeks.

Most Group III prices were reported within the published ranges in Asia, but at least one producer’s prices carried a premium because of its full approvals and ability to offer global supply from multiple production sites. The producer’s lowest prices for all grades were above the high end of the published FOB Asia ranges. The published ranges may be adjusted in the coming weeks pending further market input.

Shipping

Details about recently concluded business emerged during the week, with a 1,400-metric-ton cargo heard to be scheduled to load in Yeosu, South Korea, for Taichung, Taiwan on Jan. 9-10 on the Ocean Ace. A 7,000-ton lot was expected to load in Yeosu to Mid-China on Jan. 13-15 on the KTS Brown, while a second lot of 8,000 tons was mentioned for loading in Yeosu to North China on the same dates on the Seongho Ace.

• A 4,900-ton cargo was quoted for shipment from Yeosu to Ulsan, South Korea, Jan. 9-10.
• A 2,200-ton parcel was on the table for shipment from Yeosu to Taiwan, Jan. 15-17
• A 9,000-ton lot was discussed for shipment from the U.S. Gulf to Mumbai and the UAE, Dec. 20 and Jan. 20.
• 10,000-12,000 tons were likely to be shipped from Yeosu, South Korea, to Godau, Vietnam, in Jan.
• A 3,600-ton cargo was on the table for shipment from Qatar to West Coast India, January 18-20.
• A second cargo of 6,300 tons was also mentioned to cover the same route, with the lifting expected Jan. 21-22.
• A 4,500-ton lot was likely to be shipped from Mailiao, Taiwan, to Karachi, Pakistan, in early January.

Production

A number of turnarounds have already been announced for 2026. The latest information is provided below, along with turnarounds that took place in the second half of 2025 as they may have impacted base oil pricing at the time of completion and beyond.

Group I

• Luberef scheduled a 45-day turnaround at its plant in Yanbu, Saudi Arabia, from mid-November until December 2025. The unit produces Group I, Group II and Group III base oils. The plant underwent an expansion in 2017. The company had shut down its plants in Yanbu and Jeddah for about a week in Q2 2025.
• Luberef has secured a new feedstock supply agreement for the company’s Jeddah facility. The facility had been expected to close by mid-2026, but the new supply agreement will allow it to continue operations beyond 2026. As a result, the company will maintain its current production capacity of 275,000 tons per year of Group I base oils. With the completion of the Growth-II Project in Yanbu, Luberef’s total production capacity will reach 1.53 million tons per year, making it the only supplier in the region able to offer Group I, Group II, and Group III base oils.
• Eneos’s Mizushima A underwent maintenance from October to November in Japan.
• Two Eneos Group I plants were permanently closed in recent years.
• Chennai Petroleum completed a turnaround at its Group I plant in Chennai, India, in September/October for approximately one month.
• Thai Lube Base Oil’s Group I unit in Sriracha, Thailand, was shut for 45 days from mid-July to second half August.
• PetroChina’s Dalian refinery began a permanent shutdown in 2023. The base oils unit closed in late 2024, with full closure by July 2025. Inventory clearance was scheduled by end of August 2025.
• CNPC’s Fushun plant in Liaoning was expected to increase Group I production to offset the Dalian closure. Bright stock capacity is estimated at 60,000 t/y.

Group II

• ExxonMobil has completed a capacity expansion at its Singapore Resid Upgrade Project and commenced on-spec production in August 2025. The producer has started to offer an ultra-heavy Group II grade with similar characteristics to bright stock. The project is an upgrade of the company’s integrated manufacturing complex, which will allow it to expand large-scale production of its global EHC Group II slate and meet growing demand for high-performance lubricants in the Asia-Pacific region, the company said.
• Indian Oil Corp. was understood to have completed a one-month turnaround at its Group II plant in Haldia in November 2025. The producer also completed an expansion of its Group III capacity in Haldia in December.
• Hyndai Oilbank/Shell plans to shut down its Daesan, South Korea, Group II plant for a routine turnaround that will last a month and a half in late March/early April 2026.
• Formosa Petrochemical postponed a scheduled turnaround and catalyst change at its Mailiao, Taiwan, plant from the fourth quarter of 2025 to third quarter of 2026.
• Hyundai Oilbank Shell Base Oils plans to shut down its plant in Daesan, South Korea, in April 2026 for approximately 45 days.
• HPCL reportedly conducted a 45-day turnaround at its Group II trains from May until July 2025 in India, following some delays.
• Excel Paralubes completed a scheduled turnaround at its Lake Charles, Louisiana, U.S. plant in October 2025. The plant had been running at reduced rates for most of the year, limiting spot availabilities in the U.S., but a catalyst change has allowed the company to maximize output.
• Motiva restarted operations in June 2025 after a three-week turnaround at its Port Arthur, Texas, U.S., hydrocracker beginning in late May. However, some production issues lingered for several more weeks, reducing the producer’s Group II inventories and tightening Group II spot availability in the second half of 2025.

Group III

• Petronas plans to shut down its Group II/Group III Melaka plant in Malaysia for a turnaround in mid-2026.
• Indian Oil Corp. completed an expansion of its Group III capacity in Haldia and astart-up of the expanded plant was achieved in December 2025.
• The restart of Shanxi Lu’an’s base oil plant following an unplanned shutdown in December should bring more Group III supplies to the market in early 2026.
• A fire at SK-Pertamina’s refinery in Dumai, Indonesia, broke out on October 1, 2025, but was quickly extinguished, with no impact to base oil supply reported. The Dumai Group III base oil plant was shut down for maintenance after the fire and was restarted shortly after. Term supplies were not expected to have been affected. Pertamina also operates a Group I plant in Cilacap, Indonesia. The Dumai refinery is a joint venture between Indonesian state-run Kilang Pertamina Internasional and South Korean producer SK Enmove.
• Sinopec restarted its Group III plant in Yanshan, China, in late July 2025.

Prices

Crude
Crude oil futures maintained their gains from the previous week on Monday due to heightened geopolitical risks in Russia, Iran and Venezuela, despite expectations that the U.S. would make more Venezuelan oil available to the market. Trading firm Trafigura was working with the U.S. administration to bring Venezuelan crude to the U.S., with its first cargo possibly loading next week.

• Brent March 2026 futures were trading at $63.11 per barrel on January 12, 2026, up from $60.60/bbl for front-month futures on Jan. 5 (ICE Futures Europe).
• Dubai crude futures (Platts) for February 2026 settled at $62.04/bbl on Jan. 9, 2026, up from $60.18/bbl for front-month futures on Jan. 2 (CME).

Base Oils
Spot base oil prices in Asia were steady to soft, with activity still muted following the year-end holidays, but expected to gradually revive over the next few weeks.

The price ranges portrayed below reflect discussions, bids and offers, as well as deals and published prices widely regarded as benchmarks for the region.

Ex-tank Singapore
Group I solvent neutral 150 steady at $780/t-$820/t
SN500 lower by $10/t at the low end of the range at $910/t-$950/t
Bright stock fell by $20/t to $1,290-$1,330/t 
Group II 150N steady at $820/t-$860/t
500N down by $10/t at $950/t-$990/t

FOB Asia
Group I SN150 steady at $670/t-$710/t
SN500 held at $720/t-$760/t
Bright stock prices softer by $10/t at $1,110/t-$1,150/t

Group II 150N stable at $720/t-$760/t
500N unchanged at $780/t-$820/t

Group III grades were largely unchanged:
4 cSt heard at $1,080/t-$1,120/t
6 cSt assessed at $1,050/t-$1,090/t
8 cSt holding at $900/t-$940/t

Gabriela Wheeler can be reached at gabriela@LubesnGreases.com

Lubes’n’Greases shall not be liable for commercial decisions based on the contents of this report.